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Toronto vs Boston: regular season stats comparison

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We feel like we know Boston too well, but it never hurts to check the data and see how these two teams stack up.

Toronto Maple Leafs v New York Islanders
I’m tired of pictures of Bruins already.
Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

With the playoffs about to begin in Boston, it’s time to look back for the last time at the regular season result each team put up. I’ve used mostly Offside Review and a few other sites sprinkled in to compile this. The basics are direct from NHL.com, and that’s where I’ll begin.

Regular Season Results Overview

Stat Toronto Boston
Stat Toronto Boston
Points 100 107
Win/Loss 46-28-8 49-29-9
ROW 46 47
RW 40 38
Goals For 286 259
Goals Against 251 215
Differential 35 44
ROW: Regulation and Overtime Wins; RW: Regulation Wins

The view now moves to five-on-five play, and first is the big picture, followed by the breakdown in for and against figures.

5-on-5 Results Overview

Stat Toronto Boston
Stat Toronto Boston
TOI 4083 3992
Goals For % 54.79 55.12
Corsi For % (Score Adjusted) 52.2 53.85
Expected Goals For % 50.81 52.88

5-on-5 Details

Stat Toronto Boston
Stat Toronto Boston
GF/60 3.03 2.34
CF/60 65.54 59.20
xGF/60 2.74 2.59
GA/60 2.50 1.91
CA/60 60.01 50.73
xGA/60 2.66 2.30
Goals, Corsi and Expected Goals for and against. Corsi is Score Adjusted.

Special teams are next, with the power play by shots (Corsi) and Expected Goals. There’s no score adjusting here. The difference between Goals and Expected Goals is much more meaningful than success percentage, but Corsi For rate is more likely to predict results. In less than 400 minutes of time on ice for both teams, there’s even more chance here than there is at five-on-five that goal scoring rates are being affected by random variance.

Power Play

Stat Toronto Boston
Stat Toronto Boston
TOI 354 389
CF/60 112.47 98.69
xGF/60 9.39 7.09
GF/60 7.62 9.59

The penalty kill is very heavily influenced by goaltending, but a look at the pace of shots allowed can tell you a little about the skaters on the ice. The shorthanded Goals For per 60 minutes is included for amusement, since it’s never going to amount to meaningful numbers of goals scored.

Penalty Kill

Stat Toronto Boston
Stat Toronto Boston
TOI 350 389
GA/60 6.86 7.40
CA/60 94.30 91.99
xGA/60 6.13 6.65
GF/60 0.86 0.92

The individual results are next, and for raw all-situations points, I’ve included the top 10 for each team.

Top Ten Points Scorers

Toronto Boxcars Primary Points Boston Boxcars Primary Points
Toronto Boxcars Primary Points Boston Boxcars Primary Points
MITCHELL MARNER 26-68-94 78 BRAD MARCHAND 36-64-100 71
JOHN TAVARES 47-41-88 73 DAVID PASTRNAK 38-42-80 65
AUSTON MATTHEWS 37-36-73 60 PATRICE BERGERON 31-47-78 57
MORGAN RIELLY 20-51-71 45 DAVID KREJCI 20-53-73 51
KASPERI KAPANEN 20-24-44 32 TOREY KRUG 6-47-53 31
NAZEM KADRI 16-28-44 31 JAKE DEBRUSK 27-15-42 35
ANDREAS JOHNSSON 20-22-42 32 DANTON HEINEN 11-23-34 29
ZACH HYMAN 21-19-40 32 CHARLIE MCAVOY 7-21-28 20
PATRICK MARLEAU 16-19-35 29 SEAN KURALY 8-13-21 16
JAKE GARDINER 3-28-31 16 DAVID BACKES 7-13-20 12

Five-on-five on-ice performance is all players who played at least 500 minutes, and just Expected Goals percentage is shown.

5-on-5 Expected Goals %

Toronto xGF% Boston xGF%
Toronto xGF% Boston xGF%
WILLIAM NYLANDER 54.51 PATRICE BERGERON 57.19
ZACH HYMAN 53.70 BRAD MARCHAND 55.09
JOHN TAVARES 52.96 DANTON HEINEN 54.98
JAKE MUZZIN 52.78 DAVID PASTRNAK 54.96
JAKE GARDINER 52.73 JAKE DEBRUSK 54.95
MITCHELL MARNER 52.32 CHARLIE MCAVOY 54.67
IGOR OZHIGANOV 51.21 BRANDON CARLO 54.64
NIKITA ZAITSEV 51.13 DAVID KREJCI 54.49
AUSTON MATTHEWS 50.63 DAVID BACKES 54.39
TRAVIS DERMOTT 50.59 ZDENO CHARA 54.31
KASPERI KAPANEN 50.55 TOREY KRUG 53.76
ANDREAS JOHNSSON 50.26 NOEL ACCIARI 51.82
NAZEM KADRI 50.24 SEAN KURALY 51.75
MORGAN RIELLY 50.09 MATT GRZELCYK 51.31
FREDERIK GAUTHIER 49.51 CHRIS WAGNER 50.02
RON HAINSEY 48.95 JOAKIM NORDSTROM 49.96
CONNOR BROWN 48.84 KEVAN MILLER 49.90
PATRICK MARLEAU 47.67 JOHN MOORE 46.78
500 minutes played

For power play scoring, everyone who has at least one point is included. Boston splits the ice time between their two units at approximately 65% to 35% (judging by the HockeyViz graphic). Toronto is approximately 60% to 40%, and they have a much more stable set of players who make up the units.

Power Play Points

Toronto Power Play Boxcars Boston Power Play Boxcars
Toronto Power Play Boxcars Boston Power Play Boxcars
MITCHELL MARNER 3-18-21 BRAD MARCHAND 10-22-32
AUSTON MATTHEWS 12-8-20 DAVID PASTRNAK 17-13-30
MORGAN RIELLY 3-16-19 TOREY KRUG 2-28-30
JOHN TAVARES 10-8-18 PATRICE BERGERON 9-15-24
NAZEM KADRI 4-9-13 DAVID KREJCI 5-9-14
PATRICK MARLEAU 3-5-8 JAKE DEBRUSK 8-3-11
ANDREAS JOHNSSON 3-3-6 DANTON HEINEN 1-6-7
JAKE GARDINER 0-6-6 DAVID BACKES 2-5-7
WILLIAM NYLANDER 1-5-6 MATT GRZELCYK 0-5-5
TYLER ENNIS 2-3-5 JOHN MOORE 2-1-3
JAKE MUZZIN 1-2-3 RYAN DONATO 3-0-3
KASPERI KAPANEN 1-2-3 STEVEN KAMPFER 1-1-2
- ZDENO CHARA 0-2-2
- CHARLIE COYLE 0-1-1
- CHARLIE MCAVOY 1-0-1
- JAKOB FORSBACKA KARLSSON 0-1-1
- PETER CEHLARIK 1-0-1

And lastly is the starting goalie comparison. I’m assuming the Bruins will not play Jaroslav Halak, even though his results are better. This information is from Moneypuck.com

Starting Goalies

Stat Frederik Andersen Tuukka Rask
Stat Frederik Andersen Tuukka Rask
Expected Save % 95.11 95.28
Save % on Unblocked Shots 94.45 95.18
Save % Above Expected 0.333 -0.093
All-Situations Results