Getting to know Nick Paul

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The Maple Leafs traded for Nick Paul on free agent day, giving up Dennis Hildeby and two picks in the deal. Paul, originally from Mississauga, was in year five of a seven-year deal he'd signed in Tampa for an AAV of $3.15 million per year. He has a 16-team no-trade list to the end of the contract and he will be 34 when it expires.

Paul is one of only two newly acquired forwards under contract for more than two years.

The Basics: Vitals and Stats

• Age: 31
• Position: Centre/Left Wing
• Height: 6'4"
• Weight: 234 lbs
• Draft: 101st overall in 2013 by Dallas

Stats

Dallas traded the rights to Paul to the Ottawa Senators as part of the Jason Spezza deal in 2014, just over a year after he was drafted. He joined the Senators after one more year in junior and a trip to the WJC for Team Canada. He then split his time between the NHL and AHL for an astonishing five years. He played very few games until DJ Smith took over coaching the Senators in 2019, and finally has his first NHL season in the truncated 2020-2021 year.

In the following year, the Senators traded him to Tampa for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick, retaining salary in a deadline deal that seems like a steal by the Lightning in retrospect. Once in Tampa, and finally playing full seasons, he turned into a solid 20-goal middle-six centre.

His most recent season was troubled by injuries, however. He began late due to a wrist surgery that he and the team had been trying to avoid. The wrist ailment affected his shooting in the 2024-2025 season and didn't respond to rest or the now trendy platelet-rich plasma therapy. He reported his wrist as fully healed this summer before the trade to the Leafs.

Once he returned to the lineup in November of last year, he spent several sessions on IR with illnesses and a lower-body injury suffered just before the Olympic break. He did return to play late in the season, and played in the playoffs, but was mostly used on the fourth line.

For most of his fulltime pro career, Paul averaged 17 minutes a game. Last season he was at 14. Tampa had previously used him as their number six forward, playing him on the second or third line, and their second power-play unit some of the time. He has occasionally played the PK, but not recently.

For Tampa, he was a versatile forward, moving between centre and wing and playing various roles in the middle six. He is a skilled but not elite faceoff man, with a career percentage over 50.

NHL Edge shows him as a slightly above average skater with no real record of speed bursts or acceleration.

Advanced Stats

Paul's shooting last season remained typical of his usual style, despite the injuries. He is not a highly skilled finisher and relies more on an decently high volume of shooting and a net-front focus to his shots.

His defensive impacts are considerable, and his low-end top-six winger ability is healthily propped up by his other attributes. Even last season, he had very good impacts on shot share and quality of shots against consistent with his better seasons.

Highlights

From 2024-2025, when by his own admission, he wasn't shooting well, but still scored 22 goals, you can see how he fit on the Lightning:

(Warning for some epic Leafs-typical defending on some of these.)

There is some superficial similarity to Jack Roslovic in how he is driving the net and positioning himself well with his linemates while he is clearly not the main creative force. You can see the RAPM chart in action here. He does not have the shot Roslovic has, and he doesn't look very fast.

The Good:

Paul has a high level of skill at the ordinary hockey basics all over the ice. He knows what to do in most situations, and he's usually capable of doing it at a level his role has demanded. He is heavily tilted towards defence but functions as a support forward very well in the offensive zone, so he is not just a shutdown guy. He's a versatile centre/winger, somewhat in the mode of Calle Järnkrok or Alex Kerfoot, but with a much more physical side to his game and a shot rate that is borderline top-six.

The Flaws:

He's not very fast, unlike some other recent additions, and he has no special teams skills that stand out, although he's capable on the PK. He struggled dramatically last season with injury and trying to get into the rhythm of the season, and that could be age-related. He has never shown any particular shooting skill and is not a playmaker or offence creator.

Overall Assessment

If there is a plausible fit for Jack Roslovic in the top six, it's hard to see that with Paul. He seems made for a hybrid third line that brings defence, physicality, strong hockey sense and some realistic offence, albeit at a reduced level compared to the more vivid top two lines.

He scores more goals than most players of his type because he shoots more, and he shoots smart.

He hits less than you'd expect, but still enough to be more directly physically engaged than almost every forward remaining on the roster from last season, barring Dakota Joshua.

The Leafs have been wandering in the wilderness for years looking for a third line that had a job that they could do well. If Paul returns to his pre-injury form and maintains his defensive abilities on a new team, then the quest might have finally succeeded. Paul can play a defined role that suits his skills, and doesn't need much from his linemates other than similar levels of ability. He might not be exciting in any particular way, but he is very useful.

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