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T25U25: Penultimate summary

Next week is 3, 2, 1 and done.

Finland v Slovakia: Preliminary Round Group A - 2021 IIHF World Junior Championship Photo by Codie McLachlan/Getty Images

A short week meant only four new names revealed this week, but we still have lots to talk about in terms of how everyone voted.

Official List

#7 Roni Hirvonen marked a jump in the rankings with 1.89 average rankings points between him and Nick Abruzzese. Only two people ranked him below his placement, with four voters putting him right at seventh.

Poll

When does Roni Hirvonen make the NHL?

This poll is closed

  • 2%
    2022-23 season (age 20)
    (14 votes)
  • 11%
    2023 spring/playoffs (age 21)
    (78 votes)
  • 29%
    2023-24 season (age 21)
    (194 votes)
  • 23%
    2024 spring/playoffs (age 22)
    (153 votes)
  • 26%
    2024-25 season (age 22)
    (176 votes)
  • 7%
    2025 spring/playoffs or later (age 23)
    (49 votes)
664 votes total Vote Now

#6 Topi Niemelä has always been one spot away from Hirvonen on the Top 25, and this year he’s 1.56 average rankings points ahead and he finished with an average ranking of exactly 6. We were sure where he fit in the top 10, and only two people voted him at seventh.

Poll

When will Niemelä play his first NHL game?

This poll is closed

  • 9%
    In April of this season after his Liiga season is done
    (62 votes)
  • 8%
    In October to start the next season
    (55 votes)
  • 42%
    Sometime in the middle of the next season as a call up
    (269 votes)
  • 38%
    In 2+ seasons when he’s seasoned in the AHL some more
    (243 votes)
629 votes total Vote Now

#5 Nick Robertson finished less than one point ahead of Niemelä, and he received only one vote above his placing. We were also, collectively, very sure about this ranking, with only two people having him below Niemelä.

Poll

When is the first season Robertson plays more than 20 regular season games for the Leafs?

This poll is closed

  • 42%
    This is it! 2022-23. He’s not dialing back, he’s gonna dial it up.
    (307 votes)
  • 27%
    2022-23 only if there are injuries at his position.
    (199 votes)
  • 13%
    2023-24.
    (95 votes)
  • 3%
    Later than 2023-24.
    (22 votes)
  • 12%
    He’ll crack the 20 game mark wherever he is traded.
    (92 votes)
715 votes total Vote Now

#4 Timothy Liljegren did not crack the top three this year, but he finished 1.78 ranking points ahead of Robertson, and no one voted him below Robertson this year. We’ll talk about how he fits in with number two and number three next week.

Poll

Who will be Timothy Liljegren’s most common partner next season?

This poll is closed

  • 4%
    Morgan Rielly
    (34 votes)
  • 1%
    TJ Brodie
    (12 votes)
  • 17%
    Jake Muzzin
    (139 votes)
  • 72%
    Mark Giordano
    (573 votes)
  • 2%
    Rasmus Sandin
    (20 votes)
  • 0%
    Justin Holl
    (5 votes)
  • 1%
    Jordie Benn or someone else
    (11 votes)
794 votes total Vote Now

Community Vote

This week reveals two of the most interesting divergences between the two votes.

#7 Roni Hirvonen

While he’s in the same place on both lists, Hirvonen barely ranked above Fraser Minten on the Community Vote, with an average ranking of 12.18.

Almost no one voted him above seventh but a lot of people had him lower, often much lower.

#6 Topi Niemelä

Also in the same place on both lists, Niemelä marks the Community Vote’s biggest jump at 4.21 average rankings points ahead of Hirvonen with 7.97. This is the point at which the community solidified in opinion.

These two charts are opposites, with very few votes for Niemelä lower than sixth and a few higher.

#5 Nick Robertson

Also in the same place on this list, he is 1.81 rankings points higher than Niemelä, showing the same level of certainty that the official voters had about where he should be. His average ranking was 6.16.

#4 Matthew Knies

As everyone knew yesterday, the official list put Liljegren fourth, while the community has Knies lower on the list with an average ranking of 5.15 almost exactly one point above Robertson and as we’ll see next week, the same amount below number four.

However, the rankings of Knies are spread very evenly, with a lot of people ranking him second or fifth. Top five is where the certainty is, exactly where in the top five is not something that’s agreed upon.

Next week, we obviously have Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren to sort out between two and three on the Community Vote, while the official vote has Sandin and Matt Knies. While this disagreement over the ranking of Knies vs Liljegren is interesting, it’s partly how the numbers shook out. The really big difference between the two votes is that split at Niemelä, and the absolute certainty he’s better than Hirvonen. I’m the most curious as to why people are so extreme on that score compared to the official voters.

Three more to go beginning on Monday to the big surprise reveal of the number one ranked Maple Leafs under 25.