It's regular season prediction time, and I usually post a few that arise out of models I take seriously or laugh rudely at betting companies' efforts. One hopes every gambler knows the difference between odds and probability. No? Well that's just the way they like it, carry on.

LOL. I deleted what came after. I was good, though, some thoughts on the strengths and weaknesses of these prediction efforts when a team has an outlier season. But seriously, LOL on your prediction model. John Chayka smashed it all up.

Has there ever been a real and impactful player trade in the afternoon of the roster deadline day? Maybe, but none I remember.

So to catch you up, this is the post with the profile of Kirill Marchenko:

Maple Leafs attempting to acquire Kirill Marchenko
Get to know this top-line winger.
PPP LeafsCathy Squires

There is more depth on the trade here:

Marchenko - Knies trade details
A done deal now officially broken by Dan Milstein.
PPP LeafsCathy Squires

But the gist is this:

I will miss Matt Knies, that representation of excellent scouting, but I love this trade. At the end of my player profile series I said this:

Player evaluation is the core of team building, and the teams that do it with clear-eyed honesty and emotions in check are the ones that build winning teams.

It's not just for draft day, this objectivity. What the Leafs had in Matt Knies, outside of who he is as a person and as a player is someone with no trade protection and a difference in the perception of his value and the measurable value he produces on the ice. This trade was not with New Jersey or Carolina. This trade was with a team that values Knies for who he is. And it is was with a team , the Leafs, who value Marchenko for who he is. I know who I agree with.

Some other thoughts on this:

Maple Leafs acquire Kirill Marchenko from Blue Jackets for Matthew Knies
Sportsnet.caLuke Fox

This, I don't know, rumour? fabulism? something, started going around last night.

Milstein is having none of it. Many people of the "someone said it, so no smoke without fire" persuasion will buy in, though. Alas, they are legion.

What does Tuukka Rask say about it all, you have to wonder.

When I turned off the computer last night, the Leafs roster was not yet public. What is possible is Marchenko won't be able to play today due to visa issues. The preview might have the details!

And finally a few things that seem to be confusing people:

  • Marchenko's new contract takes effect next year. He is at $3.85 this season.
  • He has usually been a RW, and he shoots right.
  • Miles Wood has cleared waivers and can be sent to the AHL immediately.
  • The health status of Elvis Merzlikins is unstated in the long term, but he is definitely not playable now (he has been wearing a sling on his arm).

Other news:

That's it, see you in the preview once we know who is even playing on this team.

Update: Puckpedia has what they believe is the Leafs roster and cap situation.

The image a little bigger:

Note the details on LTIR here. Domi is not on LTIR yet, and Merzlikins is only on in-season LTIR. The potential is there to add $4.2 million in LTIR pool. Opening up the opportunity to add a player or players.

When Dakota Joshua comes off IR, the roster has 23 healthy players, and the team is at 50 SPCs, so both of those facts limit additions without there being subtractions. Also of note, Bo Groulx requires waivers to be sent to the AHL.

And one final point on this roster, Gavin McKenna can earn as much as $3.5 million in performance bonuses, and if he does earn them, they cannot be paid out of LTIR. So the Leafs would use their cap space at the end of the season, if any, to cover them, and the rest rolls to next season.

Looking ahead, the only healthy player on this roster above that is expiring is Nick Blankenburg. Even with Kirill Marchenko's big raise next year, the Leafs would be under the cap by almost $4 million with 22 players. There is no problem fitting that contract in.

Kirill Marchenko now joins Gavin McKenna, William Nylander and Darren Raddysh as the committed core of the team.

From The Branches