Absent any meaningful news, a refresher on salary arbitration is all I could think of for today.

The Leafs have one arbitration case: Nick Robertson. Hearing dates will be announced soon, since they begin on July 20. Almost all players who elect arbitration are signed before the hearing. The last time a Leafs' player actually went the full way through to the arbitrator's ruling was Ilya Samsonov in 2023. He was awarded an amount slightly less than expected leading everyone to be happy. That, needless to say, didn't last.

There are two ways arbitration happens: the player elects it or the team. In Robertson's case, he elected. This matters because the opposite party chooses the term, which can only be one or two years. That choice is often strategic, and the Bowen Byram situation revolves around that. There's not really a lot of incentive for the Leafs to choose a two-year term unless they want to keep the player and want to lock him up to a low AAV now. One year or two, his contract will expire with him still an RFA with arbitration rights.

The process is simple, the player submits an ask, the team an offer, and then the arbitrator listens to the case made by each side. There is a specific list of stats that can be used in this presentation that now includes the NHL's version of advanced metrics. In other words, the Leafs can't present some internally-produced model that says what they want it to say and Robertson can't wave around an Evolving Hockey chart.

Not that he should.

Traditionally, the arbitrator comes up with an AAV for the contract that is right down the middle between ask and offer, or very close. The only time that doesn't happen is when one side proposes an absurd number. The Leafs can't go lower than his prior year's salary (per PuckPedia) and that is $875,000. Arbitration contracts are straight salary matching the AAV in all years, no signing bonus, no back or front loading.

There are two effects of arbitration beyond the player getting a contract: a second buyout window opens after the last player on a team either has his arbitration award or is signed, and the team is allowed to walk away from a contract only if it exceeds a certain amount. That amount is $4.85 million this season. The player has no walk-away rights.

The only way the Leafs can avoid having Nick Robertson under contract on the team next season is to trade him. They can do that at any time, other than during the hearing process. They can sign him to any sort of contract he agrees to of any term or AAV or structure up to the point the hearing starts. After that, the process is locked in.

The result of the hearing – if it comes to that – will be announced 48 hrs after the hearing takes place.

Some news:

They did not release the actual document, however.

ICYMI yesterday:

From The Branches