2025 NHL Draft Profile: Hayden Paupanekis

Toronto's prospect cupboards are generally pretty bare these days. It's what happens when you trade away so many of your top prospects and draft picks over the past few years. As such, there's not much point in talking about needing to take players at certain positions – drafting for positional need is generally pretty silly anyways, but especially now it seems like a beggars being choosers scenario.

That said, there's always positions of higher value – centre being the obvious one. Drafting a player who plays centre in junior doesn't guarantee they'll stick there. Many wingers in the NHL started out as centres but got bumped to the wing for one reason or another.

Today's prospect, Hayden Paupanekis, has all the tools to stick in the middle, with the only question being how high in a lineup he can play.

THE BASICS: STATS AND CONTEXT

• Position: Right-shot centre
• League(s): WHL
• Height: 6'5"
• Weight: 202 lbs
• Birthdate: February 4th, 2007

Here are his draft rankings, as of writing this:

• Bob McKenzie: 70th
• Corey Pronman: 58th
• Will Scouch: Not ranked
• Elite Prospects: 43rd
• Scott Wheeler: 81st
• Dobber Prospects: Not ranked
• FC Hockey: 74th
• McKeen's Hockey: 56th
• HockeyProspect.com: Not ranked

Paupanekis, a member of the Norway House Cree Nation in Manitoba, was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2022 WHL draft. At the time, he was only 6'1" and 161 lbs, so he's definitely still been growing and adjusting to his body the past couple of years. Before he made the jump to the WHL, he was in the second tier of offensive producers for the AAA leagues he played in. He was a better goal scorer than assist guy, but he also has worn the 'C' for one of his teams in the past.

When he made the jump to the WHL, Paupanekis was on one of the better teams in the league in Spokane. They were loaded with other top offensive players, and he was playing mostly a depth role in the bottom six or a supporting role in the top six. He had 24 points in 39 games for them before he was one of the main pieces involved in a blockbuster trade that sent him to Kelowna, in return for top prospect Andrew Cristall.

On a rebuilding Kelowna, Paupanekis went from being a supporting/depth player to being one of his team's top all around forwards. He was either the 1C or the 2C, and was on all their special team units, the lot. The average number of faceoffs he took per game jumped from 14 to 21, his shot rate and goal rate also increased. His assist rate dropped, and I'm guessing it's because despite getting more playing time his linemates were not the same caliber he had on Spokane. His tracking data also shows a pretty dramatic split between his time on Spokane (very good) to Kelowna (just okay), which balances out to show pretty good overall impacts.

THE GOOD: WORK ETHIC, POWER GAME, DEFENSE

What I like about Paupanekis is that his projection offensively includes some solid NHL-calibre tools. He already has a pretty good one-timer and a heavy wrist shot, capable of beating goalies from a decent distance. He is able to work in some deception into his shot, not necessarily at a high level but gives him a bit more of an arsenal to make him a sneaky shooter, doing things like shooting off the inside-foot to change angles. At the NHL Combine, he had the 13th best VO2max test results, the 4th best fatigue index in the anaerobic fitness testing, the 9th biggest wing span, the 3rd strongest left hand grip and 2nd right hand grip, and the 22nd most consecutive pull ups. In short, he is an absolute train when it comes to endurance and physical strength.

Paupanekis also has a growing power game, allowing him to consistently generate scoring opportunities around the net. He sets up in front or next to the net and out in the slot and looks for rebounds, deflections, and passes for quick snap shots. His focus on moving pucks from the wall to the middle of the ice shows promise – he may never get to Knies' level, but it is a good skill to have. He appears refined in layering pucks with ease and demonstrates good hands in tight spaces, allowing for quick control and deceptive plays.

As a playmaker, Paupanekis likes to cut inside off the rush to drive the net and look for open teammates for a cross-ice pass. He does the same thing when winning loose pucks down low or along the boards, driving to the middle of the net and looking for passing opportunities and effectively set up teammates after winning possession down low. I've seem scouts say he flashes "advanced ideas and playmaking concepts", including things like such as stopping up off entry, shoulder-checking, spotting weak side trailers, delaying, and being a strong backhand passer. He also anticipates and hits passing lanes well offensively, utilizes back layers of the attack, with good vision – perhaps partially helped by being so tall.

As a skater, I'm going to summarize the bits I've seen from scouts who are better able to breakdown skating mechanics. Paupanekis is described as a smooth, fluid, and above-average skater who generates sufficient speed thanks to using things like "chain crossovers", which is something I've learned the past few years is a very good way to quickly generate speed. I won't get into detail beyond that because it's past my understanding, but suffice to say his skating mechanics gets strong grades for his speed and agility, and is something one scout said allows him to make plays in motion which is a very valuable skill to have.

Paupanekis' puck handling is decent, good enough to effectively transport the puck through the neutral zone on transitions. He's also smart and uses the give-and-go to get through defenses. He has above average speed as a skater which helps him get to open space despite his large frame. He can also drive inside with the puck using his size as leverage.

Coupled with his skating, Paupanekis exhibits high hockey IQ and awareness across all three zones. He can makes quick and smart decisions with the puck even in limited time and space. This strong combination of skating and hockey sense significantly contributes to his ability to drive transitions and have a positive impact on zone exits and entries. He is excellent at exiting the defensive zone, often utilizing the middle, getting off the wall, passing, and joining the play, which directly feeds into his team's offensive transitions.

Paupanekis demonstrates significant versatility as a forward. He can play on both special teams, he can play as a more purely defensive centre as well as a top line, two-way guy, and he can play both centre and the wing. He has a positive impact in all three zones as well. He is blessed with some high level physical tools, with a 6'4" height and the reach to go with it. He is already very strong and will likely only get stronger as he builds more muscle and learns pro-level nutrition and fitness. Thanks to those physical tools, he has a lot of projectable abilities in protecting the puck, winning physical battles, dropping his shoulder to drive to the net, and has a good understanding of creating leverage with body positioning.

Defensively, Paupanekis is consistently involved deep in his own zone, actively slowing down opponent cycles, retrieving pucks, and winning battles. He reads plays effectively and uses his hands and reach to force turnovers. He is quick enough in junior to catch up with and establish an inside position to then shove or check the puck carrier. He harasses puck carriers and strips pucks off them with strong stick lifts where he can overpower their resistance to it. I will say his defense looked better on Spokane before being traded to Kelowna, whether because he was asked to focus more on defense in a depth role on a top WHL team or because he was suddenly asked to be a top line centre and was a bit overwhelmed with the spike in responsibility, I'm not sure.

That said, Paupanekis' overall defensive instincts and work ethic are notable, and is something I've seen scouts say is his biggest strength. He effectively ties up sticks in front of the net and denies zone access with his reach and physical play. He applies pressure to force turnovers and breaks up plays with an active stick and good positioning and making quick jumps into passing lanes. He projects as a strong penalty killer thanks to those same traits to cut away space and funneling play into more confined areas that are easier to defend. He has a more advanced understanding of his defensive zone responsibilities and fills his gaps effectively, compared to his peers in this draft. His ability to anticipate and hit passing lanes defensively further solidifies his strong defensive impacts.

THE FLAWS: HIGH LEVEL OFFENSIVE SKILL

The main problem I have with Paupanekis as a prospect is that he doesn't have a high level of polish to his overall game, especially offensively. As a playmaker, he may have decent vision but his passing tends to be mostly simple. He doesn't have the puck handling level to create better passing lanes, and he doesn't have a delay game. He's more of a meat and potatoes kind of passer, where he sees pass and he makes pass. He needs to refine his reads when making plays on the rush, otherwise his strong transition driving ability in junior will lose efficiency against pro defenses. He also struggles at times to get shots off under pressure, especially off the catch-and-release, and his playmaking beyond short, intelligent passes is not always consistently impressive.

Similarly, Paupanekis' skating mechanics get generally solid grades from scouts, but he could also stand to improve his overall skating. Like his playmaking, he generally plays in more of a simple, straight line sort of way. If he works on his agility he could add a higher level of deception to his puck handling, which would benefit his transition game greatly. Adding strength will help him improve his acceleration, as his initial few strides are sometimes on the slower side. Additionally, fatigue seems to be a factor in his game at times, which is where getting training routines from pro-level trainers will also help a lot.

Lastly, Paupanekis could improve his defensive urgency and engagement. At times he can have "controller disconnected" moments where he isn't moving and tracking play with much urgency, and fails to close on opponents in his area of the ice he's responsible for. That can be pretty common for players his age, and his overall defense is already above average. But that's another area for improvement he needs to work on. A better understanding of positional awareness defensively would also benefit his game. The observed lack of defensive urgency and physical engagement can be somewhat disappointing given his strong offensive pursuit and his effective use of size in the offensive zone.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

I'll say that I think Paupanekis could be a Minten-esque centre, but is less of a sure thing. I mentioned above that his offensive skill doesn't seem as polished as Minten's was, but his defense and transitions also seem a bit weaker than I remember Minten's were in his draft year.

Paupanekis has the pro-level physical tools and habits that make him a safer pick, but I think there's still some real upside to his game as well. From what I've seen, he hasn't generated a lot of late hype. He finished his season pretty well on a bad Kelowna team that missed the playoffs, and he wasn't invited by Canada to the World U18s.

From the most recent rankings I have to reference from Bob McKenzie, Corey Pronman and the NHL Central Scouting list, he seems pretty solidly a third rounder. Maybe not quite as late as Toronto's third round pick, so he's kind of in between their second and third round pick ranges. I could see a team swinging on him before it gets to Toronto's third round pick.

Because his offensive game seems more simple to me as of right now, at least in general, I am less sure of taking Paupanekis in the second round like I was with Zharovsky or Lee. I think I'd still like him at the second round, but I acknowledge he has more risk because he has some development to do to be able to become a virtual lock as a 3C in the NHL like Minten was for me. Honestly I'd prefer if Toronto was able to get one of the top forwards or defensemen I profiled in the first week of June and then manages to get Paupanekis in the third round, but beggars can't be choosers!

Thanks for reading!

I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.

Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!