Once you get into the second round, you're not likely to find stars. You can still find guys who have interesting tools and talents, but have some other issue(s) that made them fall out of the first round – maybe they're too small, their skating is a big issue, they don't produce enough offensively, or anything like that. If you are lucky, that second rounder will turn into Matthew Knies or Logan Stankoven. If you do a good job but don't get 'lucky' like that, they turn into Fraser Minten, Nick Robertson or Sean Durzi.

What I am looking for when I write these profiles are guys who I know are good in particular ways, so I think they are more likely to at the very least wind up in that Minten/NRob/Durzi camp, but who I also think have a decent chance of turning into a bigger hit.

Václav Nestrašil, the power winger from Czechia, perfectly fits that type for me.

THE BASICS: STATS AND CONTEXT

  • Position: Right-shot winger
  • League(s): USHL
  • Height: 6'5"
  • Weight: 185 lbs
  • Birthdate: April 6th, 2007

Here are his draft rankings, as of writing this:

  • Bob McKenzie: 60th
  • Corey Pronman: 46th
  • Will Scouch: 45th
  • Elite Prospects: 26th
  • Scott Wheeler: 52nd
  • Dobber Prospects: 30th
  • FC Hockey: 37th
  • McKeen's Hockey: 41st
  • HockeyProspect.com: 25th

From his basic info, Nestrašil has immediate standout traits. At 6'5" he has much-coveted height, and at 190 lbs he has obvious room to add more weight and unlock even more strength to his game. Statistically, he looks good but unspectacular. He had 42 points in 61 games in the USHL, which as a league isn't as high scoring as the CHL but that was good for fifth on his team in points.

When comparing him to other U18 players in the league, Nestrašil was seventh – I would say in the second tier behind the point-per-game prospects. You can also see the same thing in his shots profile, where he had right around two shots per game. While he didn't get into any international games this year, he did last season. Similar to his time in the USHL, he was not a team leader in the goals or points department but was in that second tier.

In the playoffs, Nestrašil helped Muskegon win the USHL championship with 7 goals and 13 points in 14 games. That was good for fifth on the team and tied for eighth in the league for the playoffs, following his trend of being a strong secondary scoring option but not a team or league leader. In their championship run, he was used as either the 2nd or 3rd line right winger – whether his line was listed as the 2nd or 3rd line seemed to change despite having the same linemates, and from what I could tell they were probably used around the same amount as the other second or third line that swapped back and forth with them

Contextually, Nestrašil bounced around the lineup a lot. He got some time on the 'top' line (as far as what was listed on the starting lineups) but spent just as much time on the second or third lines from what I could see. I think the reason why is because he is not really a leading guy on his line, but is a fantastic supporting player. He was used a lot on the penalty kill and led the team in short handed points (2 goals and 2 assists). He got some time on the first and second powerplay units, where he was tied for the 4th most on the team.

The other fun fact about him is that he has three older brothers who all play hockey – the youngest is 28, the oldest is 35. His second oldest brother, Andrej, was a third round pick in the draft and played 128 games in the NHL over three seasons for Detroit and Carolina between 2014 and 2017. The other two have stayed in Europe.

From Mitch Brown's USHL Tracking Project

THE GOOD: TOOLS, DEFENSE, RELENTLESS MOTOR

The first thing that stands out when watching Nestrašil is how utterly relentless he is harrying puck carriers. He is already pretty quick with his first two strides, and he is very tall and has an extremely long reach. He is very smart and has a high level of anticipation, and he is almost psychotic in trying to cause a turnover. It makes him a very valuable penalty killer, and I think this ability of his is extremely projectable to professional hockey.

This kind of off-puck play is not just good in the defensive zone, it's also just as applicable and effective on the forecheck. Nestrašil will chase down dump ins like a missile, throw effective checks to knock them off balance or pin them on the boards, try and establish positioning and leverage to get possession of the puck and look to get it out front.

You'll see some examples in the highlights below – Nestrašil is a one man machine in disrupting breakout attempts, exploding at the puck carrier and reaching out to knock the puck away and then chasing them to the boards to throw a check and pin them. If they try and pass it away, he'll quickly change his course and attack them instead. He's constantly trying to lift sticks, swat at the puck or even the other player's stick, cross-checking or shoving them lightly – just enough to disrupt what they're trying to do but not enough to get penalized most of the time. It's relentless and fascinating to watch if you're into that kind of thing.

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Václav Nestrašil (#24 in yellow/white/black) - Defense & Forechecking Highlights

When it comes to offensive execution, Nestrašil looks very raw but also appears to have a creative mind. He can see plays that he wants to make and will try to do so. At this point in time, it seems very chaotic and wild – so lacking in refinement and efficiency in terms of being able to consistently execute on his attempts. It can be frustrating because of the turnovers and inconsistency, with some pretty careless passes that I'm sure is the main reason why his coach doesn't play him higher in the lineup.

However, at this stage in his development I have some faith that Nestrašil will get better and more efficient with time and practice. In addition, he has some of that same element that Matt Knies and Nikita Grebenkin bring, where they help create offense through the chaos they can cause outside of just passing or shooting. I've seen him pull off a between-the-legs pass from the boards to a teammate in the middle of the ice, and you can get an idea for the opportunities he creates in these highlights:

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Václav Nestrašil (#24 in yellow/white/black) - Playmaking Highlights

Then there's Nestrašil's ability to create scoring chances and goals for himself. I'll break it up into two skills he has that help the most: his shot, and his net-front play. Nestrašil has a pretty great release, and he can get some good velocity and loft on his shots, including from in close. Just like with his playmaking, the consistency of his shot is something he'll need to work on – more in terms of his ability to be in a good position with the puck to use the shot. I think that's the main reason why his shot volume is relatively low, though him playing more in the bottom six also contributes to that.

Then there's his net-front game, which is arguably the furthest along for any of his offensive skills. He's already a massive handful when he fights for positioning in front, and he will be even more so when he completely fills out and adds muscle. Once he's there, he has good hands for deflections, fighting for loose pucks and rebounds, and putting himself into position where he can accept a shot-pass for the back door tap in. Here are some good examples:

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Václav Nestrašil (#24 in yellow/white/black) - Goals Highlights

THE FLAWS: HIGH END OFFENSE, CONSISTENCY, REFINEMENT

So I've pretty much already touched on the issues in Nestrašil's game already, but I can spell it out some more. He is a very raw prospect right now. To me, it is clear that he already has a very good brain for hockey, where he can see what can and needs to be done and acts to try and do it. His main problem is that he is so raw and unrefined right now.

Physically, he needs to add on more muscle and fill out. While he holds his own in most physical battles, he can still wind up being the guy outmuscled too often for his size and play style. Getting stronger, which I assume he will very easily, to some extent, will help with that. It will also help add more power to his skating, to his checking, to his net-front game, his defense, his explosiveness, his shot, everything. He plays a very power game, so adding more muscle behind that power will only make all of those skills even better. There is some mechanical things with his skating that can be cleaned up, but it's already at a pretty high level.

Skill wise, there's even more work to be done. Nestrašil's playmaking and puck handling is the biggest area for improvement. He shows flashes that he is capable of handling the puck well enough, but it would need to be better for him to hold onto it like he wants to at times. If he can't, he needs to get better at finding other ways to achieve what he wants, maintain possession, and keep it moving. Make quick, short passes for things like a give and go, do a chip and chase where his size, speed and reach allow him to win those battles more often than not. He already has a bag of tricks, like banking the puck off the back of the net, so adding to his repertoire will only help.

Improving his passing, mostly in terms of having a more calm decision making process instead of just riding the chaos in his brain will help. Hopefully with time, wisdom and practice the passes he tries will become more routine, and he'll be better able to execute on them. I see Knies in him quite a bit, but Knies very quickly had a better grasp of what he was good at, and what he wasn't, and worked within those limitation to become as good as he is at the things he's best at. Nestrašil may just need more time and practice to get to that same point.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Honestly, while Nestrašil is such a raw and chaotic prospect that is in need of a lot of refinement and development, I still think he'd be a perfect pick for Toronto in the second round. He fits the exact profile they seem to like, and offers a huge potential upside if he does develop with a couple of big leaps like Knies did.

But my main reason for liking him so much is that even if he doesn't, Nestrašil is already so good at very valuable skills for pro hockey that I think he'd still be a safe bet to turn into a useful bottom six guy. Someone who brings energy, defense, penalty killing, and versatility. Despite not being a regular top six guy in the USHL this year, he is on the ice a lot at the ends of games because that defense is so valuable.

I think giving Nestrašil over to Toronto's development staff, all their nutrition, health, fitness, and skills coaches can make something more of him. He might not ever turn into a player of Knies' caliber, but for a second round pick he doesn't need to. He can be the next McMann, with a good shot, good speed, good size, and good defense. He's the best bottom-six depth forward on Toronto's roster right now. Or he can be a hybrid of David Kämpf and Pontus Holmberg. You may hope for better, but I honestly think that the Kämpf-Holmberg love child is almost Nestrašil's floor.

Now, the question is if Nestrašil will wind up being available in the late second round. All those tools and strengths are the kinds of things that basically all NHL teams like. To be honest, I was kind of surprised to see the 'traditional' scouting outlets not that high on him – at least as of now. On Bob McKenzie's mid-season ranking, he had him 60th. Corey Pronman didn't rank him, but he only covered the first round. NHL's Central Scouting rankings had him 36th among North American skaters, which also puts him as a late second round guy when you merge their other lists (European skaters and goalies).

I do think Nestrašil will wind up being ranked maybe juuuuuuuuuuuust outside of Toronto's range, and on draft day I'd guess he winds up being an early/mid second rounder, while the smaller players ranked ahead of him are the ones that fall behind him. I still like Zonnon's all around game better, but he's less likely to fall so far. So most of my realistic hopes are on Nestrašil to get taken by the Leafs.

Thanks for reading!

I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.

Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!

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