2025 T25U25: Ben Danford is #4

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Did you know that I don't care all that much about points when looking at prospects? Even more so for defensemen? I feel like I may have mentioned it once or twice in the past. Not bringing that up for any reason...

Ben Danford	Vitals
Age as of July 1	19.4
Position	RD
Height	6'1"
Weight (lbs)	188
Shoots	R
Draft Year	2024
Draft Number	31

The Player

So Ben Danford is a defensive defenseman who doesn't have a lot of points in his junior career. That's probably a cause for concern for a lot of people who casually follow a prospect's career by checking their box scores. It's not a huge concern for me, and I'll touch on why.

First, if you want to get a good feel for his game, I recommend reading this prospect report I wrote about his recent participation at the World Junior Summer Showcase for Canada that helped put him on the map for a potential roster spot at this year's World Juniors.

Danford has a bit of everything. He has size – 6'2" and 194 lbs doesn't make him a physical monster, but it means there's no real concern about him being able to deal with the physicality of most NHLers. He's a very, very good skater – smooth and quick, with some explosiveness but that could improve. He also has incredible defensive instincts – where to be, when to act, what to do, how to read and anticipate a play.

I know, I know, you want more offense from him. I can somewhat understand the concern – if he can't generate many points in junior, that must mean he's a hopeless liability with the puck and won't be able to do anything but lob it out of his own end or bank it off the glass to clear the zone, right?

Well, not so fast.

Tracking Data from Mitch Brown's Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/user/posts?u=13951676

You can see in the tracking data above that he improved in pretty much every conceivable way. That includes his defense, but also his play with the puck and his ability to have a positive impact on transitions and pick movement. He rates out very well in the kinds of little things that Cowan does too. He is reliable at being able to get the puck out of his own end with control, without turning it over.

In Elite Prospects' prospect ranking article for the Leafs, they touch on what he's done to improve last season:

While his production didn't take a huge step this year, he was far more confident as a handler, willing to join the play and create in the offensive zone, and better at managing the puck overall.

He consistently drew pressure in transition before passing around and through coverage, connected open teammates with slot passes, and jumped into space or pinched to keep plays alive. But never one to sacrifice offence for defence, Danford was still relatively risk-averse as a puck carrier.

That tracks with what I've seen of him as well. He's similar, in this sense, to Fraser Minten, Miroslav Holinka, or Tyler Hopkins now. They all do the little things that their positions as defensive centers/defensemen that help the team, but can feel too safe – safer than what you might want, but someone has to play in that role. And because they do it, and do it so well, it frees up their more glass cannon-y offensive minded teammates to do their thing knowing they have an elite safety net behind them.

Danford's first and foremost commitment is to defense, and that means he plays safe when it comes to jumping into plays or cheating for an offensive opportunity. That's typically been the job for his partner, while he's the one hanging back. So it's less that he can't provide offensively, and more that he chooses not to with enough frequency that he denies himself the opportunity to get more points.

Opportunity and points go hand in hand. I've said it, Cathy's said it, you've probably thought of it too when insisting that X player or prospect would get a lot more points for the Leafs if they only got to play in the top six or on the powerplay! Well, I'm guessing that Danford will get a lot more opportunity this year. He may still be more conservative and defensive, but he's going to be on a weaker team this year with their oldest and best offensive defensemen moving on to the pros. Danford is going to play a lot, and potentially on the powerplay as well. Maybe not the top unit, but going from zero to more than zero is still more of an opportunity.

When Danford was drafted, he got a lot of comparisons to Chris Tanev, and honestly I think time has only shown how incredibly relevant that is. What makes me appreciate Tanev so much isn't just that he is, truly, incredible defensively, but that he's also so good at doing little things you wouldn't associate with being a defensive skill – things like moving the puck up the ice to exit the zone after you get possession back in your own end.

The Votes

Pretty consistent votes for Danford. Five people nailed their rankings with where his final result ended up, and three others were one spot off in either direction. There were only two holdouts who were a bit lower on him than everyone else. But it's okay, they know not what they do.

Voter	Vote
Cathy	4
Brigstew	3
Species	4
Hardev	4
shinson93	4
Cameron	4
Zone Entry	3
Svalbard38	5
dhammm	8
adam	7
Weighted Average	4.6
Highest Vote	3
Lowest Vote	8

I was one of the two people to rank him third, behind only Knies and Cowan. You tell me right now that you think Maccelli, NRob, Thrun, or whoever is more valuable than Chris Tanev and why.

I'll wait.

The Opinions

Here's what the other voters had to say:

Cameron: When looking at prospects for the 2024 draft, Danford slipped through the cracks and I didn’t really know him as I was hoping for one of Emery, Elick, Mews or Solberg. However, Danford has really impressed me. While he isn’t elite offensively, he can help at times. His defensive game is really where he shines, I feel like he could make the NHL as a great bottom pair, shutdown penalty killer dman.

Shinson93: Danford is so smooth, calm and efficient. He has a great feel for space and where people are all around him. I’d like to see him be more assertive up ice and taking chances, but not so much that it takes away from his consistency in positioning. I expect another strong year in a leadership role, a role on the WJC team, and just more of the same.

dhammm: Given the difficulty we have drilling down on defense at the NHL level, it seems impossible to quantify when evaluating prospects, so I will take scouts’ word for it that Danford’s is special and elite. I am skeptical that those skills translate as well as others as the competition gets tougher, and that makes Danford a compelling case study to me. The best things he has going for him otherwise are his status as a first-round-pick, meaning he will get more opportunities than prospects without that pedigree, and his handedness. Otherwise, I probably would have ranked Noah Chadwick over him based on how low Danford’s ceiling seems in comparison.

Svalbard38: Something I love about Danford that I don’t see mentioned too often is how vocal he is on the ice. He directs play in a true sense. It’s tougher to get a sense of it on tv but when I watched him in person it’s something that really stood out. As it stands I don’t expect him to be a top 4 guy, but if he can learn from Tanev and Muzzin and become a lite version of one of those guys, that’s a win.

Cathy: The holy grail of defending in the modern NHL is not a points generator, it's a Corsi generator who actually defends well. He's a player who erases events out of existence and saves goals you never see almost happen, but he also moves the puck north. This player defies the categories of defence and offence as things separated by a, well, fence. This player – and the first time I ever defined him I used Alex Pietrangelo as the model – is almost angelic in his power and authority and positive impact. Now, Danford is just a mortal man, and yet he's leapt up into the Team Canada orbit. He's ready to leap again into the mysterious and secret world of good defenders who aren't the last guy to touch the puck before the scoring forward (cough Noah Chadwick cough). How high can he go? Higher than every single defensive prospect the Leafs have, and it isn't close.

Now it's your turn. How high are you on Danford? Are you concerned that he won't have the puck skills necessary to make it in the NHL? Do you think he's just Chris Tanev from the future that got hit with an intense Youthasizing treatment.

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