2025 T25U25: Matthew Knies is #1

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Matt Knies is very obviously the best player on the Leafs T25 eligibility list. He took a giant leap from his first full season in the NHL to last season, and at 23 this fall, he still has some more steps to take.

Matthew Knies	Vitals
Age as of July 1	22.7
Position	LW
Height	6'3"
Weight (lbs)	227
Shoots	L
Draft Year	2021
Draft Number	57

The Player

You know this guy or you wouldn't be reading this, but to cover off how he's grown as a Leaf I'm going to discuss his points, because that is how you tell how good someone is. Well, I'll discuss his goals and offence, at least.

Knies has two full NHL seasons, 80 games in his first and 78 last year, so he walked into a fulltime regular roster spot right out of college. His first season was not quite as regular as last year, however. He only played 14 minutes per game at five-on-five and he moved between the third line and the top six quite a bit. Last year he only had 32 minutes of his 1,088 played without Mitch Marner, and only a small amount more with the sometimes-injured Auston Matthews.

Knies is not a typical top-line player. While he gets called complementary, that term implies (like my use of typical) that the main role of a top six forward is to score goals. Knies does not shoot the puck enough to ever be a big goal scorer. His rate – 11 Corsi (all shots) per 60 minutes – puts him in company with Oliver-Ekman Larsson, Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton for shot rate. However, the way Knies shoots is distinct.

His very, very tight to the net shooting pattern makes him the player on the Leafs whose Expected Goals measure comes most from the quality of the shot, not the quantity. The closest comparator was John Tavares last season where he shot in a similar way at a low rate at five-on-five (a thing to consider for another day).

Knies scored at a very high rate over his expected goals as well. I should note that Evolving Hockey's model puts him a 1 ixG/60, but even using their more exuberant measure of net-front value, Knies still scored over that. He did that as well, albeit at lower rates, in his prior season, but two years is not enough to know if he will forever be a scores over expected guy.

Knies went from very little power play time to a regular role on the top unit last year, and superficially that seemed unideal. But when you (or rather I, because I wasn't really in favour of this at first) understand his role – net-front goalie botherer and very occasional shooter – it makes sense that it works. His shot rate on the power play was the lowest of any Maple Leaf with at least 20 minutes played, and that includes all defenders and Max Domi. The Leafs made a power play role that suited him and the key to his success there is that no one started counting goals up and pursing their lips in displeasure and muttering about production.

Is Knies likely to score 29 again?

That is the key question because x-goal-scorer is how you measure a player and we want x to stay at 30, don't we? That's really all that matters and it's why you need to always worry about goals from the depth and the defence. Or that's what the broadcast tells me.

It's difficult to just know how good Knies is at that useful set of skills that chain up to successfully defend in the defensive zone, exit the zone with control, move through the neutral zone, enter with control and get scoring chances. He played most of the year with the two best players on the team at doing all of that. He's not just riding coattails, but he's not in their class either. Isolation models struggle to sort out players who play on a dedicated line.

RAPM from Evolving Hockey tries to isolate one player as best as is possible, and it shows the Knies leap in numerical form. He went from okay in the defensive zone, to very good, and he went from not helping in the offensive zone to a key part of a line that generated the most offence on the team. I don't believe isolating impacts is a perfect science, so some of that is who he played with and how he was used situationally, but not all of it.

By RAPM, the top four Leafs last year for generating Expected Goals For (as part of a group of five on the ice, not as individual shooting) were: Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Knies. Creating Expected Goals means creating the precondition for scoring. HockeyViz gives almost the entire credit to Auston Matthews, however.

An interlude:

So, what are his flaws? He is only 23, and he's likely got some small levels of increasing skill to come.

Well, first of all if you take seriously the level to which HockeyViz doesn't like his overall offensive value – I don't, but it's worth considering that a lot, just not all, of the credit likely should go to Matthews – he can make some strides in his passing, his play as part of a line, and his play away from the puck that isn't board work. His board work is excellent, and if there's a criticism of him, it's that he just takes the guy in the corner by default and doesn't do much else other than buzz the goalie. This is less true last year over the year before, so it's an area he's already added value and sophistication to his game.

His line is going to change, and the pivot for the playmaking is now just erased off the team, and there is no comparable replacement. Knies is going to be more exposed if he isn't always adding to the chance to score offensively. You can't ask the net-front and corner man to do a lot in terms of keeping the play in the zone, but you can ask him to make passes that connect and to get himself in the open to receive them. Mitch Marner isn't there to make space, so he has to do some of that.

Knies is not the best on the PK, and the Leafs had a very high shots against rate when he was on the ice. Maybe this is the thing that's inevitably given up because he didn't need a year in the AHL, but if he could make himself truly valuable there, he would be more of an all-situations player.

Knies does a lot of very tangible things that are so often called intangible and should really be called unquantifiable. He hits. Hard. He hits smart most of the time. He doesn't take a lot of emotional penalties, and he doesn't take games off either. He makes a show of how much he's in the game in the playoffs. Hockey is a show after all, and it's okay to want a show along with the quantifiable value. Just because I can't measure it, doesn't make it valueless, but it's also not – and I'm not being sarcastic this time – more important than that goal scoring endeavour which is job one for a top line.

Matt Knies is 23. Show us how much you've grown, and we'll have something to talk about next year when you're universally ranked first in the T25.

The Votes

Unanimous.

Voter	Vote
Cathy	1
Brigstew	1
Species	1
Hardev	1
shinson93	1
Cameron	1
Zone Entry	1
Svalbard38	1
dhammm	1
adam	1
Weighted Average	1
Highest Vote	1
Lowest Vote	1

The Voter Opinions

Brigstew: He’s Toronto’s best prospect from draft to development to impact NHL star since the Big Three were all NHL rookies in the same season. He’s turned into a legitimate top line complementary player alongside two other stars, with 30+ goal potential thanks to his mix of power and skill. The fact that he’s still 22 until October is hilarious, and should put things into perspective when you look at other prospects who are in their 20’s and where they are playing in terms of the league, their spot in the lineup, and their impacts on the ice.

Species: He’s dating Ella Huber, and that alone makes him in progress to be hockey royalty, so he’s #1.

Shinson93: One of the few prospects I have watched almost all his games since he was drafted, between the Steel, Golden Gophers, international play, and now the Leafs.. Just such a joy to watch him play, to see him learn how to use his size, how he speaks to the media, and just goes about his business and competes. And, he’s still got a couple years to reign on top of this list. Hopefully a team favorite for a long time.

Hardev: Awesome, fun player. This is more of a celebration that he's ours than an analysis of his game/development. Take it away, Zone Entry!

Zone Entry:

Matthew Knies
Matthew Knies
Number one in the voters’ eyes
Throws a hit
Scores a goal
He’s way better than Par Lindholm

HOORAY

Three cheers for Matthew Knies

dhammm: Wow, Ella Huber’s boyfriend is on this list? Finally, a HAB in the NHL I can cheer for.

Adam: Hey I know this guy!

Svalbard38: He’s the whole package and he’s developing into exactly the guy we hoped he'd be. A power forward who can score, skate, hit, and throw a few punches. He’s going to be an important part of this team for a long time.

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