2026 T25U25: Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan are #2 and #3

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I'm breaking the traditional format today, not because there was a tie vote, but because I believe these two players are much closer than the wider opinion would have it.

The accepted line seems to be that choosing between Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan for this year's Top 25 is simple and obvious. I think there's a throughline from the "but why trade Knies?" refrains that echoed continuously over the summer to this idea that only someone being purposefully outré would rate Cowan higher. The purple hair of player evaluation, which if true means Knies over Cowan might just be socks with sandals.

I found this choice very difficult to make, but the voting results overall show a very strong consensus for the "it's so obvious" theory. I'm going to tell you why I think this is a closer call than most believe. However, if you absolutely believe player evaluation is points times mass divided by age, just jump to the comments now because Knies wins that contest outright.

These two aren't prospects, so that sets them apart on this list as not very old players who are nonetheless firmly established NHLers. Very firmly in Knies' case. The T25 voters don't have a historically great record on players good enough to make the NHL at 20 or 21. Everyone from Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly, William Nylander and Mitch Marner to lesser players like Andreas Johnsson, Kasperi Kapanen and Rasmus Sandin were ranked absurdly low in their first year or years. What causes trouble is that once a player is in the NHL, the lens of evaluation becomes more focused on present ability and future growth takes a back seat. So that's the first thing that's confounding this decision – the differences in age and experience.

The Players

Matthew Knies is two and a half years older than Cowan and he has three full NHL seasons and three trips to the playoffs as representation of how good he is as a player. Knies is already one year into his big contract that pays him over $7 million. He shows up in the team PR videos, and he was the guy on hand when William Nylander happened to find out on camera that the Leafs won the draft lottery. He's an established member of the team, seen by many as a core player.

Easton Cowan still has two more seasons on his ELC and he has 66 NHL games played and no playoffs. Well, he does have that Calder Cup run on the Marlies, but even the fact he was new enough, inexperienced enough to go down to the AHL after the season was over is almost a mark against him in this sort of direct comparison.

Now you might immediately think what I thought: let's compare Knies' first season to Cowan's. That makes sense, right? So I did that, but it opens up another big confounding problem. First, I chose HockeyViz's model which breaks down player impacts in multiple interesting ways, because how these players are different is key, I think, to why this choice isn't so simple.

What this says is that both players, irrespective of their points, caused less offence to happen just by going over the boards. This is actually pretty common with rookies. They get carefully used by coaches because they are still finding their way and their impacts are often less exciting than the feelings you get watching them. It's the rare elite player who can do more than just play a role and get some counting stats for their time. Knies' only positive attribute is "ice won" or his impact on finishing a shift farther north than he started. Cowan's positive numbers come from his ability to draw penalties, which we could see was a mixture of speed and general agitation this past season.

This comparison actually does Knies a favour in this exercise. If I were to compare his current impact snapshot to Cowan's, we might be having a very different conversation and it might be that trade discussion again. The second problem here is that Cowan's only season is the Leafs' season from hell, and Knies' first fully mature season was also last year. He was injured some of the time, and he was also tasked with much more difficult work, but he was awful. That's the reality. Matthew Knies was one of the worst players on the team last year, in a season where Auston Matthews actually had some okay results despite having to spend so much time in the big dungeon level that was the defensive zone.

While both of these players are wingers capable of playing the game at a top-six speed, the differences are significant. Once out of his rookie year, Knies has a decently consistent record of being a gently positive impact on defence. Now bear in mind this is a bit of a hazy measure for a forward, and in his case, he spends a lot of time on a line with a very gifted centre. But he has had enough time demoted to the third line that it's a measure that's at least based in reality. Cowan so far, shows a typical young winger's disregard for the southern end of the rink so we have to guess his future impacts there.

In terms of personal offence, Knies' and Cowan's rookie years are pretty similar with poor shooting choices and low rates of shooting. Neither has any particular skill as playmakers. Knies improved his personal shooting in his second year and was horrible last year. The only meaning I can take out of that is that Cowan, in his rookie year, had a much more difficult situation in which to get involved in scoring plays. He's not creating them himself, and the team created very few. And yet out of that, he produced about the same individual quality of shots as Knies did as a rookie.

Knies spent some time on the third line in his first year, but his most frequent role was with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Cowan had slightly less a portion of time with John Tavares and William Nylander and more with a line featuring Nic Roy and Nick Robertson. But for an offensively focused winger, JT and Willy provide a very soft feather bed. Even in the year of the Malaise, particularly so, perhaps, since Tavares seems to be immune to the condition.

This is the bottom line: there is no isolation model, no way of looking at these players that tells you one is obviously better than the other. The entire case for Matt Knies, at all, for his contract, for his role on the team, for not trading him, is his play in the first Berube season, and the points he gets playing with Auston Matthews and on the power play.

The entire case for Cowan as a valuable top-six winger is one part season of surprisingly good play given the circumstances. Cowan actually scored goals at the same rate as Knies last year at even strength. One of the ways points lie to you about player value is when you forget, sometimes conveniently, the differences in ice time and power play usage.

I know which player is more likely to improve this year within himself, and not just due to changed circumstances. But bigger impressions will be made based on usage – is Cowan even going to play top six? And points – Knies being the big body on the power play gives him some counting stats while standing still. And looks – Knies hits big. And maturity – Knies is still two and half years older. But those impressions aren't the whole story.

And now the other issue. Not one of choosing between them, but of how this entire conversation masks a bigger and more meaningful issue. Pull back the focus and quit comparing them to each other and ask how good are these guys, anyway? That list of Leafs drafted players who went to the NHL fairly young contains a huge range of players. Rank Nazem Kadri, Kasperi Kapanen and Nick Robertson, all with different paths to the NHL, with different early results and different long-term outcomes. Picking the best is very simple today, but it wasn't so simple when they were getting ranked behind players they eventually blew past as they got older.

Where do Knies and Cowan sit relative to the NHL as a whole? Let's look at that whole first. NHL forwards are distributed like an amphorae (it's a Chinese vase, but it's the right shape):

The bulk of players are in the bulging middle, above and below the zero value mark which is the shadow line. The long thin neck holds the elite talent, and a slow dwindling at the bottom is filled with the callups, "can't teach big" fourth-liners, and PK depth players who swim around being a net negative. Both Cowan and Knies sat in the bulge in their rookie years with most of the NHL. I want to emphasize that the overwhelming majority of the NHL resides in sight of the zero line, and their salaries vary dramatically depending on some of those impressions they make.

This amphorae pours out the wine of "thing you did." The imaginary amphorae we try to create with player evaluation – of any kind, not just rankings – is "thing you are or will be." And that's what the T25 is supposed to be about.

The ultimate future for both is most likely to be a rise up in the jar to a higher level. But to where? The peony at the top is out of reach, but up into the neck? That's actually pretty unlikely despite the points and the AAV that Knies has going for him. He's not William Nylander despite the similarity in first big contracts – one that vanishes fast if you consider cap inflation. The players in the neck, most of them forwards, all create offence – the single most important skill in the game after shooting talent. These two have neither skill in notable amounts. They are entirely ordinary at the things that separates good players from the elite.

The Votes

I voted for Cowan at second, and Knies at third. That's not a firm decision on my part, more of a vote that leans towards the expectation of growth from greater youth. This was my take on Knies last year:

Matt Knies is very obviously the best player on the Leafs T25 eligibility list. He took a giant leap from his first full season in the NHL to last season, and at 23 this fall, he still has some more steps to take.

It was true. He improved in a big and dramatic way in all areas since his rookie year discussed above. And then he didn't. Going back and reading last year's article, however, it's clear I wasn't forecasting a player who would ever swim up the neck of the amphorae. I had him pegged then as a complimentary player with no skill at offence creation. A shadow hangs over that analysis around the exit of Mitch Marner and how revealing that would prove to be of Knies' true value. Part of his personal season of hell is due to that very exposure.

My vote is more about my belief that it is more likely than not that Cowan takes the leap Knies took, and that Knies will likely bounce back from last year, but not enough to obviously top out over Cowan in the "thing you are or will be" sense. This is not a prediction about this coming season, but one of their ultimate value. Cowan has more than just this one season in his big growth period as well, so he has time that Knies has already used to get where he is now.

A few voters imagine younger prospects not yet in the NHL to have an ultimate future of higher value than Cowan. A few imagine Cowan can outperform Knies. I'm not sure what others are imagining in terms of gaps here – or if they just were forced to decide what they see as a tie. I think the contest between Knies and Cowan is a tough call, but the big shadow cast by Knies' is obscuring more than his own shortcomings.

On the other hand, you'll notice I'm not considering fit with Matthews to be a mark in Knies' favour, but an argument can be made that fit is part of value. I take a view that tries to imagine players isolated from all context, however.

The Opinions

Unsurprisingly, there were differences here to my take.

Easton Cowan

Sclodiggity: As much as Cowan has untapped potential and we’re not sure how good he will be, no one lower than him on this list really approaches his current status or upside. But does Cowan have Knies upside? Maybe, but Knies has done it, and plays a physical game which matters more than normal in this era of 2-Tkachuk teams. The top 3 didn’t have much debate for me.

Shinson93:  Deciding who to rank better between Cowan and Danford ended up being the ranking that I spent the most time on.  In the end I gave Cowan the nod based on his desire and the ability he’s shown to just win at every level.  I love his confidence to try risky plays that might pay off, but owning it when it doesn’t work, and then trying even harder the next time.  I’m glad he got that Marlies run at the end of the year to maybe block out the memory of that NHL season.  He should continue to get better with more reps, but I’m not expecting that much more than what we’ve already seen.

Svalbard38: Cowan’s not a superstar, he’s probably never going to be a top scorer, but if he’s in Toronto long-term he’s going to be a fan-favourite forever because he has “it”. He grew up a Leafs fan, he knows what it means to play for the Maple Leafs, and he’ll step up for the crest. When Zadorov laid a questionable hit on Tavares, Cowan went after Zadorov with no questions asked, gloves off before he grabbed him. That’s a guy who has “it”. He’s got a chip on his shoulder, he’s always looking to prove a doubter wrong, and he’s a serial winner who’s lifted a trophy above his head in each of the last three seasons. You’re gonna see Cowan jerseys in the stands for years to come.

Matthew Knies

Sclodiggity: Love him. Huge. Skilled. Improves each year. Extra fun because he was a 2nd round pick. 

Shinson93:  I’m looking for a better year for Knies after changing up his summer routine to keep out of the Arizona heat.  I expect him to come into camp a bit lighter and maybe a little quicker as his way to reduce the loading on his knees.  Maybe combine that with a new coaching staff and some motivation to put all that trade talk behind him and we could see a hungry Knies take on a bigger role this season. 

Hardev: Knies fell with the falling tides last season. I hope he doesn’t overthink his summer and just comes to camp ready to play his game. He’s a good player, and the only reason he was on the trading block was because he could help the Leafs acquire a better player, it should not by any means be seen as a knock on him. He’s not a perfect player, but he’s a winger so that’s fine. 

Svalbard38: He’s young, he’s skilled, he’s built like a tank, and in an era where guys are making 20 mil, his contract is already aging like a dream. There’s a reason why the rest of the league keeps asking about Matthew Knies, and a reason why we’d be smart to hang up. Knies is just getting started.

Cameron: Knies is my favourite Leaf at the moment, he has skill, grit, smarts, work ethic, size, you name it. Knies can do it all, as soon as he played his first NHL game you could tell he was going to do well in this league, I’m excited to see how he improves this season.

Matthew Knies makes an impression, and Easton Cowan hasn't got there yet. What I think is the hardest choice in this list, almost everyone else found easy. Some shockingly so as we'll see in the Community vote.

Look beyond the impression and the way you feel about the players now in this moment (particularly if you noped out of last season). Try to imagine the future where the differences in age and experience have fallen away. Are you sure who will be better?

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