Toronto Maple Leafs @ Anaheim Ducks
10:00 PM at Honda Center
Watch on: TVAS, SNO, Victory+, KCOP-13

The Leafs last game was away on March 28 against the St. Louis Blues, which Toronto lost by a score of 5-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 31-30-13 for a 0.507 Points %.

The Anaheim Ducks last played away on March 28 against the Edmonton Oilers. The Ducks lost by a score of 4-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 41-28-4 for a 0.589 Points %.

Florida has taken over as the fifth to last team in the standings today after the Blues won against the Leafs. The Panthers have a Points % of 0.500, which would give them 82 points if they maintain that. For the Leafs to finish with 81 points they can't get more than six points in their remaining eight games. That's playing at 0.375.

The Leafs are at 0.353 since the Olympics. However, as we're seeing here, other teams can easily slot in below them. Calgary, the fourth-place team, is heading for 78 or 79 points if they carry on as they are. That's likely a more realistic line to get into the bottom five as most of these teams will underperform their season average.

Los Angeles is the second-place team contesting for the two western wild card spots by Points %. Nashville holds the second spot by points, one up on LA, who have a Points % of 0.521. Nashville is at 0.520 and Seattle is also at 0.521. San Jose won their last game, but looks out of range to me. Otherwise, this is still at least a three-way race.

We will hear a lot of "only three points out" statements over the next two weeks, but that's a big gap when the calendar turns to April.

Them

The weirdest thing about this weird season is that the Ducks, the Pacific Division leader, have a negative goal differential.

Lines

Projected lineup based on the last game and today's skate:

Chris Kreider - Leo Carlsson - Troy Terry
Alex Killorn - Mikael Granlund - Beckett Sennecke
Jeffrey Viel - Ryan Poehling - Cutter Gauthier
Frank Vatrano - Tim Washe - Mason McTavish

Jackson Lacombe - Jacob Trouba
Pavel Mintyukov - John Carlson
Olen Zellweger - Radko Gudas

Lukas Dostal
Ville Husso - confirmed starter

Us

The Leafs left on this road trip with one extra player: Phil Myers. Leaving no room for lineup changes. But wait, someone is injured, and yet everyone was at skate. Hmmmm.

However they are managing it, Groulx is nominally the second-line centre today (he's actually played more minutes than Domi before now).

Lines

Lines at skate:

Easton Cowan - John Tavares - William Nylander
Matthew Knies - Bo Groulx - Matias Maccelli
Dakota Joshua - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Michael Pezzetta - Jacob Quillan - Calle Järnkrok or Steven Lorentz

Morgan Rielly - Brandon Carlo
Jake McCabe - Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit - Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Joe Woll

The Game

It's been 11 Leafs games played since the trade deadline. They've won four of them. Their five-on-five Corsi % in those games has been:

  1. 38
  2. 38
  3. 31
  4. 37
  5. 39
  6. 40
  7. 39
  8. 28
  9. 58
  10. 38
  11. 32

Their season average is 44, and if you want help finding the one game in the last 11 above that number, it's the Boston game at 58%. Maybe it's time to stop being amazed if they get outshot by a lot.

Game Coverage