Calgary Flames @ Toronto Maple Leafs
06:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TSN4, SNF

The Leafs last game was at home on October 25 against the Buffalo Sabres, which Toronto won by a score of 4-3 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 4-4-1 for a 0.500 Points %.

The Calgary Flames last played at home on October 26 against the New York Rangers. The Flames won by a score of 5-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 2-7-1 for a 0.250 Points %.

Them

Things are not going well for the Flames. Trade rumours are starting, the buzzards are circling, looking to pick the bones of a team that has slowly decayed after the Matthew Tkachuk trade.

All is not gloom, however. Dustin Wolf looks to be a real goalie, and they have some interesting youth, none more unique than Zayne Parekh. He's not really all that much like other offensive defencemen in that he actually does just play like a forward, where usually defenders tagged with that type are puck distributers in the offensive zone. Playing him on the third pair is interesting to say the least.

But what is up with the flames? After 10 games played, they are in last place in the NHL by Points %. They have managed to score 21 goals, which is exactly one full goal per game below the current league average. That average of 3.1 goals per game per team is higher than last year, but not bloated up by the early season increase in power plays and power play goals.

Why aren't they scoring? Well, let's start with when. They score at a very low rate on the power play, just like the Leafs have been. Their Expected Goals on the power play is a little better, but is still only 20th. The Leafs are 23. So both teams have some issues with the way they play on the PP, as well as some lack of skill/luck in terms of scoring rate.

At five-on-five, the Flames are second last in goal rate, and 21st in Expected Goal rate (the Leafs are 29th). So the Flames problems tilt more to skill/luck, but they have some systemic issues too. NHL Edge shows the Flames as good in terms of their zone time, so it appears their issue is poor shot location, not lack of time in the offensive zone. I guess the opposing goalies are just playing catch in the yard when they face the Flames.

A quick look at their players shows everyone except Blake Coleman is scoring well under expected. He leads the team with five goals. Yes, that Blake Coleman who is a 33-year-old role playing winger who scored 15 goals last year.

Lines

From today's skate

Jonathan Huberdeau - Nazem Kadri - Morgan Frost
Samuel Honzek - Mikael Backlund - Blake Coleman
Joel Farabee - Connor Zary - Yegor Sharangovich
Ryan Lomberg - Justin Kirkland - Matt Coronato

Kevin Bahl - Rasmus Andersson
Jake Bean - MacKenzie Weegar
Joel Hanley - Zayne Parekh

Dustin Wolf - starter
Devin Cooley

Us

Compared to the Flames, the Leafs have problems with big effects, but – potentially – easier solutions. Their trouble is time in zone. Two things need to happen: the team in general needs to transition quickly and cleanly, and the Matthews line in particular needs to actually defend in-zone like they have a clue. So far, they are spending too much time defending, and doing it badly. His line's offensive creation and execution have been fine, however.

This is the first of a back-to-back, so each goalie will likely get a turn.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff from yesterday, the version without Nylander

Bobby McMann - Auston Matthews - Nicholas Robertson
Matthew Knies - John Tavares - Matias Maccelli
Dakota Joshua - Nicolas Roy - Easton Cowan
Steven Lorentz - Max Domi - Sammy Blais

Simon Benoit - Jake McCabe
Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Brandon Carlo

Anthony Stolarz - starter
Cayden Primeau

The Game

The game against the Sabres showed some improvements in some areas, and Matias Maccelli seems to fit well with John Tavares, while the third line works.

Keep it up, I guess is what we can ask for right now. JT is one goal away from 500.

Game Coverage