Montréal Canadiens @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC, TVAS

The Leafs last game was away on December 4 against the Carolina Hurricanes, which Toronto won by a score of 5-1 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 13-11-3 for a 0.537 Points %.

The Montréal Canadiens last played at home on December 3 against the Winnipeg Jets. The Canadiens won by a score of 3-2 in a shootout, and their current league record is 14-9-3 for a 0.596 Points %.

Them

Goals fool you. The Canadiens have 87 goals for, the same as Carolina and seven fewer than the Leafs have, but that is enough to be top ten in the league, and so they're good, right? And young and fast and exciting and all that other stuff people say about a team that used to be bad and is now capable of winning games.

And that's all they are. Not bad, not good, with a negative goal differential based on solid foundations of unexceptional play and very poor goaltending.

Their five-on-five play is particularly bad. They top out with 48% Expected Goals on a Corsi rating much lower down the rankings. This puts them behind the Leafs in xG, an achievement of note.

They achieve this flaccid performance with very poor pace of shots for and they add no value with quality. Their rates of shots and expected goals against are not as terrible, but are low-end mediocre.

Their power play is nearly identical to the Leafs in Expected Goals rate – meaning more mediocrity – but they have scored slightly over that rate and the Leafs have scored dramatically under it. Lucky teams look good, unlucky teams bad.

They are also mediocre on the PK in Expected Goals against, and they allow even more.

Their team Save % is 28th in the NHL in all-situations, and they lead the league in shooting percentage. Lucky teams, unlucky teams... when you close your eyes to the red goal light, this is a team that is right in the mix in the messy Eastern Conference, but they aren't playing like the top teams, not even close.

Jakub Dobes has been the better goalie this season by a large margin.

Lines

Last Game (2025-12-03) via Daily Faceoff

Cole Caufield - Nick Suzuki - Juraj Slafkovský
Alexandre Texier - Oliver Kapanen - Ivan Demidov
Josh Anderson - Jake Evans - Brendan Gallagher
Jared Davidson - Joe Veleno - Zack Bolduc

Mike Matheson - Noah Dobson
Jayden Struble - Lane Hutson
Arber Xhekaj - Alexandre Carrier

Jakub Dobes - confirmed starter
Sam Montembeault

Us

Joe Woll is on IR, Double A is the backup.

No sign of Anthony Stolarz anywhere, but Chris Tanev took to the ice today, so that's some good news. He is to be assessed again soon, and then they might have a timeline.

Lines

Last Game (2025-12-04) via Daily Faceoff and unchanged today at morning skate

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Easton Cowan - John Tavares - William Nylander
Dakota Joshua - Nicolas Roy - Bobby McMann
Steven Lorentz - Scott Laughton - Nicholas Robertson

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit - Philippe Myers

Dennis Hildeby - confirmed starter.
Artur Akhtyamov

The Game

The Leafs have a bad record. By any measure their game has been bad in all ways outside of goal scoring, except the power play that only looks bad. It's actually just blah. But there are good reasons to think the record isn't truly representative of their ability right now. If that's true, then the Canadiens are very, very beatable. No matter who is in net.

Of course, hockey games aren't perfect demonstrations of which team is better. All you can do is play it like you think you can win it. Every time.

Game Coverage