Toronto Maple Leafs @ Dallas Stars
07:00 PM at American Airlines Center
Watch on: NHLN, SNO, Victory+

The Leafs last game was away on December 20 against the Nashville Predators, which Toronto lost by a score of 5-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 15-14-5 for a 0.515 Points %.

The Dallas Stars last played away on December 19 against the Anaheim Ducks. The Stars won by a score of 8-3 in regulation, and their current league record is 24-7-5 for a 0.736 Points %.

Them

Somehow, some bizarre way, the Stars have this hot as a Texas summer top-line player who might not be good enough for the Olympic team. But that's about USA Hockey and their many, many issues, and not the Stars.

Dallas has not been without hardship this season. Tyler Seguin is now out long term, possibly for the whole season. They have had some other injuries as well, but Jason Robertson has 22 goals. Wyatt Johnston has 19. Mikko Rantanen fits right in and has 48 points.

I guess firing their coach really did it for the Stars.

Now here's the thing. Dallas's Corsi and Expected Goals % are well, here they are:

CF: 46%, xGF: 49%. And for reference, the Leafs are at 46% and 48%.

Hmmm.

In all-situations the Stars are fifth in team Save %.

Hmmm.

Their power play is excellent and they actually score over expected, and have a goal rate second only to the Oilers. Their PK is okay, and the goaltending there is excellent.

Lines

Last Game (2025-12-18) via Daily Faceoff

Jason Robertson - Roope Hintz - Jamie Benn
Matt Duchene - Wyatt Johnston - Mikko Rantanen
Justin Hryckowian - Sam Steel - Mavrik Bourque
Oskar Back - Radek Faksa - Colin Blackwell

Esa Lindell - Miro Heiskanen
Thomas Harley - Nils Lundkvist
Alex Petrovic - Ilya Lyubushkin

Casey DeSmith
Jake Oettinger - starter

Us

Don't take penalties, that's got to be the number one, most important thing.

An in-depth look at the new PP structure last night, which we'll likely see again:

Leafs’ New-Look Shuffled Power Play Shows Some Promise And Should Get A Deeper Look Following Loss To Predators
Craig Berube is betting that splitting his superstar core across two balanced power-play units will finally jumpstart the Maple Leafs’ stagnant offense.
The Hockey NewsDavid Alter

However, the lines could be anything.

Lines

David Alter via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's game and subject to change.

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Easton Cowan
Matias Maccelli - John Tavares - William Nylander
Nicholas Robertson - Nicolas Roy - Bobby McMann
Dakota Joshua - Scott Laughton - Calle Jarnkrok

Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers
Jake McCabe - Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit - Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Dennis Hildeby - unconfirmed starter
Joe Woll

The Game

Well it's just so much fun to call Nashville "the worst team in the NHL" that no one really wanted to hear, so didn't, that they've been very excellent at five-on-five for the recent half of the season so far. Much better than Dallas.

Dallas is a beatable team if you play with discipline – don't take penalties, and also play with patience – keep at it until you score.

That is a tall order for the Leafs, but requires the kind of ability that sits outside of player skill as chosen by the GM or systems as created by the coach, and is pretty much inside the heads of the players. And it's not been much in evidence this season.

If the Preds excellence at five-on-five exposed anew the systemic troubles of the Leafs – and illustrated some interesting adaptations from the coach, if you watched for them, this game could very well expose troubles of a very different kind.

Watch and see. Hockey is infinitely unpredictable.

Game Coverage