Toronto Maple Leafs @ Detroit Red Wings
07:00 PM at Little Caesars Arena
Watch on: SNO, FDSNDET

The Leafs last game was at home on December 27 against the Ottawa Senators, which Toronto won by a score of 7-5 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 17-15-5 for a 0.527 Points %.

The Detroit Red Wings last played away on December 27 against the Carolina Hurricanes. The Red Wings lost by a score of 5-2 in regulation, and their current league record is 22-14-3 for a 0.603 Points %.

Them

So it's totally reasonable the Red Wings lead the Atlantic, right? Standings never lie. What if I told you they have a negative goal differential? Well you'd say, that's just sequencing luck, sometimes the goals don't match the win/loss ratio.

That's very true, sometimes they don't.

What if I told you the Red Wings have allowed the second most goals in the Eastern Conference, with only Boston doing worse in that regard? Well, you'd say, they score lots don't they?

Well, no, not really. The Red Wings are the perfect team to lead the bizarre Atlantic this year. Totally unqualified, unlikely to sustain their position, and hollow as a cardboard tube.

They are right on 50% in Corsi and Expected Goals at five-on-five, tight together with the Rangers, Flames, Sabres, Blue Jackets, Predators and Wild.

Their power play is very good, you have to give them that, and it was last year as well when they were in the basement of the east. They score a little under expected, putting them eighth in goal rate, not second as they are in xG.

Their PK is good, but the goaltending shorthanded is not. And their team Save % in all-situations is below average and 24th in the NHL.

They are mediocre in all things skaters do, which is enough to get wins in the weirdest division hockey has known since the Covid season.

But they aren't in contention for anything beyond most noble effort with bad goalies. Gibson has been okay for a backup, and Talbot is dead on average, which would make him a backup you can live with for a while.

They can beat you, though.

Lines

@DetroitRedWings via Daily Faceoff

Emmitt Finnie - Dylan Larkin - Lucas Raymond
Alex DeBrincat - Andrew Copp - John Leonard
Michael Rasmussen - J.T. Compher - Mason Appleton
Elmer Soderblom - Nate Danielson - Marco Kasper

Simon Edvinsson - Moritz Seider
Ben Chiarot - Axel Sandin-Pellikka
Albert Johansson - Jacob Bernard-Docker

Cam Talbot - presumed starter
John Gibson

Us

The Leafs right now are a bit wild, a bit over the top in their efforts to make an effort. Anyone claiming they aren't trying is one of those people who don't watch.

They need to settle down a little, but hey, it's worked four games in a row now where they top 50% in xG at five-on-five.

The move to get to 23 on the roster:

Whenever Brandon Carlo is ready it will be decision time.

No word yet on William Nylander or any changes to the lineup. Since both teams played yesterday, there were no skates. Look for an update late this afternoon.

Lines

Dave McCarthy via Daily Faceoff

Bobby McMann - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Matias Maccelli - John Tavares - William Nylander
Matthew Knies - Nicolas Roy - Nicholas Robertson
Dakota Joshua - Scott Laughton - Steven Lorentz

Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers
Jake McCabe - Chris Tanev
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Troy Stecher

Dennis Hildeby - presumed starter
Joe Woll

The Game

More of the same, even if it's a wild night.

Game Coverage