Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montréal Canadiens
07:00 PM at Centre Bell
Watch on: SN, CBC, TVAS

The Leafs last game was at home on November 20 against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which Toronto lost by a score of 3-2 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 9-9-3 for a 0.500 Points %.

The Montréal Canadiens last played at home on November 20 against the Washington Capitals. The Canadiens lost by a score of 8-4 in regulation, and their current league record is 10-7-3 for a 0.575 Points %.

Them

The Leafs saw the Canadiens on opening night of the season, beat them at least in part because Sam Montembeault let in three goals on two expected, and looked pretty on the ball doing it. And then what happened?

Well, Montembeault continued to struggle. He's now allowed 40 goals on 33 expected per Moneypuck, and is a little worse overall than Anthony Stolarz was before he became injured. In the interim, the Canadiens have been getting slightly above average goaltending from Jakub Dobes, although the gloss has started to wear off his game as well. Both goalies were tuned up for a lot of goals in that debacle against Washington two days ago.

Aside from the goalies, what's up with Montréal? It has to be several things since the gushing about this team has cooled down, and they're on the list with the Oilers and the Leafs as the problem teams in Canada.

They are 20th in Corsi at five-on-five and right on 50% in Expected Goals (per Evolving Hockey) which is where the Leafs spent most of last year before they struggled at the end of the season.

Their power play has a below average Expected Goals rate, which they underscore on. Their PK is on the bad side of mediocre for the shots they allow, but they actually aren't getting burned there too much.

They are a very middle of the road team and are average or nearly so in all areas. If they had better goaltending they'd win more because you can win by just not being bad at anything, but they lack any sort of game breaking skill beyond rookie Ivan Demidov. Injuries are hurting them, but they aren't, yet, a very good team.

Lines

Last Game (2025-11-20) via Daily Faceoff

Cole Caufield - Nick Suzuki - Zack Bolduc
Juraj Slafkovský - Oliver Kapanen - Ivan Demidov
Joshua Roy - Jake Evans - Josh Anderson
Jared Davidson - Joe Veleno - Brendan Gallagher

Mike Matheson - Noah Dobson
Jayden Struble - Lane Hutson
Arber Xhekaj - Alexandre Carrier

Sam Montembeault
Jakub Dobes - confirmed starter

Us

Here's a delightful thing we don't talk about much in the face of the more obvious defensive zone problems. The Maple Leafs lead the NHL in Expected Goals Against while shorthanded. As in they're worst at it. A lot of the man games lost have been to forwards who PK, so that's at least somewhat understandable.

And speaking of man games lost, no returning injured players tonight, so the lineup from yesterday's practice below is close to what we'll see.

Lines

Mark Masters via Daily Faceoff with Blais in for Quillan

William Nylander - John Tavares - Calle Järnkrok
Bobby McMann - Max Domi - Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz - Scott Laughton - Easton Cowan
Sammy Blais - Dakota Joshua - Matias Maccelli

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Simon Benoit - Jake McCabe
Dakota Mermis - Troy Stecher

Dennis Hildeby
Joe Woll confirmed starter

The Game

This game is technically the start of a long road trip, but the next game is Wednesday in Columbus so it's really just a one-off trip to Montréal. By the time that Columbus game comes, some roster decisions might have to be made as some players get healthy.

The rest of the IR squad will gradually come back to playing – with the exception of Chris Tanev, perhaps – over the course of the trip.

Tonight is part of the in-between time. A game against a struggling team that got trounced last time, and then several days off at home. This game has to be the season starting over. The gradual improvement in many areas of the last three games has been good, but the pace has to come up, the commitment to what is working has to be all game long.

The easy part of the season has been pissed away. Forget that and move on.

Game Coverage