Toronto Maple Leafs @ New Jersey Devils
07:00 PM at Prudential Center
Watch on: ESPN+, HULU, TSN4

The Leafs last game was away on December 7 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, which Toronto lost by a score of 5-2 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 16-9-2 for a 0.630 Points %.

The New Jersey Devils last played at home on December 8 against the Colorado Avalanche. The Devils lost by a score of 4-0 in regulation, and their current league record is 18-10-2 for a 0.633 Points %.

Them

Toronto played the Devils in the second game of the season and beat them 4-2. That was a long time ago, the power play was bad, most people could walk without crutches (not Fraser Minten, though) and we were all younger.

The Leafs win their games with two strengths: goaltending and shot quality. In the Leafs' case it's mostly limiting the quality of shots against. The Devils are the top team in the NHL for turning shot quality into goals and therefore standings points. They are third in the league for Expected Goals %.

What they are doing is taking a fairly mediocre pace of shots for (Corsi) and turning it into the fourth best pace of Expected Goals for. They do the same thing with shots against, although the improvement to Expected Goals is less dramatic. This is offset by the overall amount of shots against being closer to good.

Their all-situations Save % is okay, but their power play has the best rate of Expected Goals in the NHL at 11.37. One per 60 minutes ahead of the second-place team, the Leafs. The difference is the Devils also lead in pace of goals scored and the Leafs are 17th.

Fortune favours the Devils everywhere but in net, but make no mistake, they are getting very good results due to very good play in all situations, and are only two points behind Washington in the Metro. I would assume they will lead the Metro before too long if Carolina doesn't get there first.

Jake Allen is unlikely to be available as backup.

Lines

Catherine Bogart via Daily Faceoff from the most recent practice.

Ondrej Palat - Jack Hughes - Jesper Bratt
Timo Meier - Nico Hischier - Dawson Mercer
Paul Cotter - Erik Haula - Stefan Noesen
Tomas Tatar - Justin Dowling - Nathan Légaré

Brenden Dillon - Dougie Hamilton
Jonas Siegenthaler - Johnathan Kovacevic
Luke Hughes - Brett Pesce

Jacob Markström
Isaac Poulter

Us

The Leafs dominated at five-on-five against Pittsburgh like they need to do. But in general, they have been failing hard at this fundamental of the game.

It's likely Max Domi joins the active roster today, and if he does, someone has to come off. The difficulty is that Marshall Rifai is still taking up a spot as the only healthy extra defender with Jake McCabe now on IR.

Someone has to come off the roster to activate Domi, and the most likely candidate is Nikita Grebenkin who was sharing a spot with Ryan Reaves at the most recent practice. Also sharing a spot were Nick Robertson and Alex Nylander, but if Domi returns, it's likely neither of them draw in either.

Lines

David Alter via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice. This is a guess based on Domi moving Knies up to the first line, Pacioretty down and Robertson/Nylander out.

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Mitch Marner
Max Domi - John Tavares - William Nylander
Max Pacioretty - Fraser Minten - Pontus Holmberg
Steven Lorentz - Connor Dewar - Ryan Reaves

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Chris Tanev
Morgan Rielly - Philippe Myers
Simon Benoit - Conor Timmins

Anthony Stolarz
Joe Woll

The Game

A lot went wrong in the last game, but a lot of good was hiding behind foolish penalties and power-play goals against. Keep the good, throw out the bad, and be prepared for a team that's faster and better at several aspects of the game.

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