Detroit Red Wings @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TNT, truTV, HBO MAX, SN, TVAS

The Leafs last game was at home on January 19 against the Minnesota Wild, which Toronto lost by a score of 6-3 in regulation. The Leafs have a record of 24-17-8 for a 0.571 Points %.

The Detroit Red Wings last played at home on January 18 against the Ottawa Senators. The Red Wings won by a score of 4-3 in overtime, and their current league record is 30-16-4 for a 0.640 Points %.

Them

Who are the Red Wings? Are they good? I ask because last season they flirted with a playoff spot that seemed very precarious, and so it turned out to be. This year, they are more solidly in the mix, and led the Atlantic division for a time.

To answer my question, I decided to stick to Moneypuck's information this time. There is understood now to be a problem with the way he NHL records some shots and the result is some Expected Goals models where every goalie is great and every shooter is terrible. Moneypuck seems to have successfully corrected for this.

At five-on-five, the Wings have been below 50% in Corsi most of the time since the start of December after what was a good start to the season. They are negative for Corsi and Expected Goal differential on the season, by quite a bit. They do just make the 50% club, by having both figures hit 49%. They are, in other words, a muddy middle team, not significantly dissimilar to the Leafs at five-on-five. The Leafs are at 48% in xG and a few more good games and they will officially be mired in the mud with most of the rest of the league.

Change the view to all-situations and the picture for the Red Wings alters dramatically. They become a top-10 team in Expected Goals %, and the reason is all down to their genuinely very good power play. They score very slightly under expected, but they're so good, it's what is floating their mediocre selves up the standings.

This article will tell you goalie John Gibson is on a roll:

Gibson on a roll during 1st season with Red Wings | NHL.com
Goalie has won 6 in row entering Atlantic showdown with Maple Leafs
NHL logoNicholas J. Cotsonika

But overall this season, he's a low-end quality starter, which makes him dramatically better than Cam Talbot. Together they've been good enough to give Detroit a team Save % of 0.892, and they save over expected right on zero. The definition of average.

In the east today, particularly the Atlantic a truly mediocre team with one exceptional aspect to their game can be a division leader.

Lines

Ansar Khan via Daily Faceoff from yesterday's practice.

Marco Kasper - Dylan Larkin - Lucas Raymond
Alex DeBrincat - Andrew Copp - Patrick Kane
Emmitt Finnie - J.T. Compher - James van Riemsdyk
Elmer Söderblom - Michael Rasmussen - Mason Appleton

Simon Edvinsson - Moritz Seider
Ben Chiarot - Axel Sandin-Pellikka
Albert Johansson - Jacob Bernard-Docker

John Gibson - confirmed starter
Cam Talbot

Us

Matthew Knies is set to play again today even though he took practice off yesterday. William Nylander is not even skating, so it's a no on him. At this point, it might be a no for long enough to make Team Sweden very unhappy, but no one is confirming that yet.

Troy Stecher was not at practice but should play as well.

Lines

Yesterday's practice from Mark Masters adjusted for Knies and Stecher in the lineup:

Bobby McMann - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Matias Maccelli - John Tavares - Matthew Knies
Easton Cowan - Nicolas Roy - Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz - Scott Laughton - Calle Järnkrok

Jake McCabe - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Morgan Rielly - Brandon Carlo
Simon Benoit - Troy Stecher

Joe Woll - confirmed starter
Dennis Hildeby

The Game

I barely watched the Leafs first game back after the road trip. It was terrible, they were terrible, and there was no point to it.

They can't afford to do that more than once in 10 games, so we better see some serious play as they keep it going to the break.

Game Coverage