Edmonton Oilers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:00 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: SN, CBC

The Leafs last game was at home on December 11 against the San Jose Sharks, which Toronto lost by a score of 3-2 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 14-11-5 for a 0.550 Points %.

The Edmonton Oilers last played at home on December 11 against the Detroit Red Wings. The Oilers won by a score of 4-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 14-11-6 for a 0.548 Points %.

Them

Aside from having a nearly identical record to the Leafs, what's up with the Oilers?

In terms of skater changes, the big trade yesterday removed defensive defender Brett Kulak. He had played in every game for them at 16 minutes per game at five-on-five, which put him as the usual number four. It's clear the top three on the Oilers were above him, but no one else was. The Oilers engineered a replacement with a trade for Spencer Stastney. He had an odd usage on the Predators where he played every game, but was their least used defender by TOI, although his results in his limited play were fairly good.

The Oilers seem to be hoping Stastney can be more than he was in Nashville if given more minutes, sort of like what the Leafs got from Troy Stecher.

So, if we pretend that change will have minimal effect, then the Oilers of yesterday are the Oilers of today and they are mediocre at Corsi % at five-on-five, but they lose so much value from quality, that their Expected Goals % is not significantly different to the Leafs. Their problem, in going from about 50/50 in shot share to below that in Expected Goals, is the quality of the shots against they are allowing.

In other words, and a shocking revelation I'm sure, the Oilers aren't very good at defending. So what does that mean for the new guy in net?

Oilers: Team Save % .870 (last in NHL)

Penguins: Team Save % .902 (10th in NHL)

Stuart Skinner: 62 Goals Against on 69 Expected in 23 games (Moneypuck for this part)

Tristan Jarry: 36 Goals Against on 46 Expected in 14 games

So the Oilers kept their poorer performing backup Calvin Pickard and they added a goalie with a better record on an easier workload in very few games. It is a gamble based on his past performance while healthy, but it isn't a fix for the bigger problem.

That problem is actually the Oilers offence. Last year they were second only to Carolina in Expected Goals for at five-on-five. The year before they were first. This year, they're 17th.

They have Maple Leafs disease. They can't defend, it affects their time in the offensive zone and on top of that problem eroding their offensive chances, their offensive systems aren't working well enough.

And who knows how bad goaltending can make that spiral out of control better than the Leafs. And who also knows fixing the goalie isn't a cure-all.

Lines

From morning skate.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Connor McDavid - Zach Hyman
Vasily Podkolzin - Leon Draisaitl - Matthew Savoie
Trent Frederic - Adam Henrique - Mattias Janmark
Andrew Mangiapane - Curtis Lazar - David Tomasek

Mattias Ekholm - Evan Bouchard
Darnell Nurse - Alec Regula
Spencer Stastney - Ty Emberson

Tristan Jarry - confirmed starter
Calvin Pickard

Us

See today's FTB for the full list of injury reports from yesterday's skate.

This is complicated today by some gametime decisions on William Nylander and Dakota Joshua for illness. But Oliver-Ekman Larsson appears to be good to go.

Lines

Lines from morning skate where Maccelli filled in for both absent players. So subject to change,

Matthew Knies - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Easton Cowan - John Tavares - Nicholas Robertson
Matias Maccelli - Nicolas Roy - Bobby McMann
Steven Lorentz - Scott Laughton - Calle Järnkrok

Morgan Rielly - Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Jake McCabe - Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit - Henry Thrun

Dennis Hildeby - starter
Artur Akhtyamov

The Game

Like meets like. But someone has to win it.

Game Coverage