Should I be surprised that I've seen more fantasy acquisitions of defencemen than forwards? More fantasy removals of forwards than defencemen? I guess not.

But these are my starting premises about the Leafs and the opportunities they have right now:

  1. They played with three actual top-six wingers last year, and one of the two elite ones is leaving.
  2. Berube focused the defence on defending in the zone, and I don't buy the idea that failed zone exits are just defenders suddenly not able to pass because most of them are just fine at handling the puck. That wasn't Lyabushkin and Schenn back there.
  3. The important goalies are paid for.

The Leafs should, in reverse order of priority:

  1. Either re-up Matt Murray or find someone else with the magic ability to both play credibly in the NHL in emergencies and also clear waivers. Three goalies should be considered the minimum in the NHL now.
  2. Do absolutely nothing about the defence.
  3. Do quite a lot about the forwards.

I'll expand on number two first because everyone loves to trade a player after a down year and the defenceman focus never wavers on this team.

There will be talk and talk and talk about talking Morgan Rielly into waiving his NMC. I'm not going to be surprised if we hear reports that Brad Treliving is doing that talking. He loves fantasy trades with real GMs more than fans do with each other. Why not look at the return? Why not consider spending some of the newly available cap space on someone younger and better. Why not recycle all those Rasmus Andersson stories at least until the Flames re-sign him? It's offseason, what else is there to do?

I don't think this is a very plausible scenario, and the main reason is point one above. Actually dealing with that situation for the first time since Andreas Johnson and Kasperi Kapanen were in the top six is going to require all the assets and all the ingenuity and cap space anyone can muster. If a deal for a defender falls in his lap, Treliving will make it, but he can't seriously go looking for it unless he's found a way to photocopy draft picks.

Again, least important first, and assuming the Leafs re-sign John Tavares and show David Kämpf the door, they need one centre for the bottom-six, but it would be better if he was a middle-six centre. A subtle difference, to be sure, but important. An example:

Say the Leafs signed Brock Nelson as a UFA (they won't, he's going to the Wild, but imagine it). He can play second or third line depending on the competition or what those lines are supposed to do. He takes the pressure off Tavares and lets him focus on his core competencies. That's some Keith Pelley talk for ya.

Or consider the situation where the Leafs get Jack Drury (I didn't feel like looking too hard, so I stayed on the Avs page). He's a depth guy, and isn't challenging Tavares at all. That's more or less what Scott Laughton is in a guy you don't want playing the third line, but it's not a disaster if he does.

A genuine middle-six centre is more meaningful in his knock-on effects than a guy that just keeps Pontus Holmberg or someone of that nature on the wing. This is not an easy bill to fill.

I expect the first thing to happen is that the Leafs will want to know if Brayden Schenn is going to put the Leafs on his no-trade when his current full no-trade clause changes to a partial on July 1. If he's going to block a move to the Leafs, they need to start looking around. But the Schenn/Nelson range is where they should be looking. This is also where it's likely they get less than they want.

Pius Suter is a name that springs out as an example of getting less than you wanted, but is also the lesson that other teams are looking hard for centres as well. And yes, I'm assuming Max Domi is not a centre for the Leafs. And I've seen no evidence Craig Berube thinks he's a top-six player at all.

Now the important part, the wingers. There are some options in free agency that could fit with the team and might actually be available. So not Matt Duchene or Sam Bennett. More like Nik Ehlers, Brock Boeser or Ryan Donato (kind of a souped-up Nick Robertson). This is not an extensive review, but the first two names are the standouts. Ehlers comes with some problems, mainly that he is actually worse than Domi on the power play and Boeser is spendy, but the kind of guy they should look hard at.

In trade, things get trickier because the Leafs lack assets, aren't trading out players of value, and if they were, would just transfer the hole in the lineup somewhere else. The benefit of a trade is that the Leafs get a lower AAV than they could with a UFA. Names I've noticed that seem plausible, and funny in the first case:

  • Jared McCann at $5M for two years
  • Jonathan Marchessault has a rough contract at $5.5M for 4 years (he's 34) that's going to end in LTIR like as not. He also has a weird NMC/partial no-trade combination, but may have a reason to waive all of that since he has been a square peg in Nashville.
  • Viktor Arvidsson at $4M has an NMC he'd have to want to waive. He's had a rough couple of years with injuries, is a bit of a reclamation project, and Edmonton doesn't really seem to want him given his playoff usage.
  • One of Florida's floating band of wingers (if they need space to re-sign Bennett and replace Ekblad). Jesper Boqvist, Eetu Luostarinen, Evan Rodrigues. They have no compelling reason to move any of them, though.
  • Someone in the media suggested that the Blues might want to convince Jordan Kyrou to waive his full no-trade because they've got all these younger players being blocked by him and Schenn, and... I want this so much I have to assume it's not possible.

There are teams where it's not clear what their direction is: The Islanders have a mess, the Rangers seem to hate all their players, Vancouver looks like a disaster. Are any of those teams really ready to rip it down or do they all want to try what the Blues seem to be doing and just gradually turn over while slowly getting marginally better?

Until we know who is genuinely clearing out players, it's hard to tell who is really available, but the opportunity is there to change over more than just the top line, but to also have a third line that isn't the junk drawer of the roster. But for now, this is my overall idea of what the team should and likely will do.

Okay, short of major news or plausible reports of trades or contracts, that is it for me on this topic as June becomes draft month. With the Conference Finals over quickly, the SCF should be done earlier in June than it has in years, so in a couple of weeks this all heats up again. Our draft focus begins on Sunday, June 1.

Offseason