Leafs who recieved qualifying offers

The following players were qualified by the Leafs. They remain as RFAs. The players with arbitration rights are listed.

Nicholas Robertson (ARB)
Emil Andrae (ARB)
Jacob Quillan (ARB)
William Villeneuve (ARB)
Ryan Tverberg (ARB)

The following players were unqualified by the Leafs are UFAs. Thanks to the brilliant Shinson we know that the Leafs retain the first right of refusal for any of the European players if they want to make an NHL comeback before the age of 27. The Leafs no longer need to retain them as RFAs or give them qualifying offer for these rights. In short, we might still see SDA on the Leafs!

Matias Maccelli (ARB)
Henry Thrun (ARB)
John Prokop (ARB)
Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
Roni Hirvonen
Topi Niemela
Vyacheslav Peksa
Braeden Kressler

Leafs under contract for next season

Here are the players under contract for the Leafs who are locked into an NHL roster spot barring unforeseen circumstances. Wingers are placed based on their handedness.

Centre: Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Max Domi (IR)
Right Wing: William Nylander
Left Wing: Matthew Knies, Easton Cowan, Dakota Joshua, Steven Lorentz, Gavin McKenna (we can jump the gun here on his ELC).

Left Defence: Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Right Defence: Darren Raddysh, Chris Tanev, Troy Stecher

Goalies: Anthony Stolarz, Dennis Hildeby

This roster totals 16 healthy players. 2 centres, 6 wingers, 6 defenders, and 2 goalies.

Salary cap wise: ~$21 million in cap space with Domi counting against the cap but before McKenna's ~$1.1m ELC. There's a lot of money to go around. Contract efficiency was beneficial in a flat-cap era, but as the cap keeps rising dramatically each year the priority becomes getting the right players under contract to ice a competitive roster. It's far cheaper to overpay a dependable player than to try and fill a hole late in the season with a pricy trade deadline acquisition.

And there are quite a few holes to fill.

Holes to fill

An entire third line

Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, Knies, Cowan, and McKenna makes six. Regardless whether any of those players start on the third line, the Leafs need at least three middle six forwards between them and the next forwards under contract (Joshua and Lorentz). Nick Robertson was qualified, which could mean we're going to see him on the third line, or used as a trade chip this summer.

Either way, the most glaring need is up the middle. Max Domi is presumed injured until told otherwise, so the only signed centre on the depth chart between Tavares and the prospects is Bo Groulx. As much as I love our Calder Cup champions, neither Groulx or Quillan should skate higher than the fourth line if the Leafs are serious about winning. Expect the Leafs to acquire one or two or maybe more centres this week. Either by dishing out "too much money" or going and making a trade. This should be a priority and I'm surprised it hasn't been up until now.

Knies or Knies' replacement?

The Leafs are definitely in on Mason Marchment. I'm more than happy for them to dress both Marchment and Knies. I'm always down for some firewagon fun. The reason Knies is on the market isn't because he's replaceable, it's because he might actually provide enough value for the Leafs to improve at a position that's more important: centre or defense.

Depth Defenders

As always with prospects, the goal isn't to expect Ben Danford to make the Leafs out of training camp. It is on the Leafs to establish an incumbent and set the bar for Danford to beat. Barring a trade, the Leafs have six defenders locked in under contract for next season. Until Emil Andrae signs, Stecher is 6th and Myers would be 7th on the depth chart. Danford has those players to pass during training camp if he wants to make the roster. I would say that's a much more difficult path than a month ago when it was Myers and Benoit.

I expected the Leafs to sign a RHD that would slot in the depth chart above Myers and below Tanev. That ended up being Stecher! I personally think their defense business is done, but I wouldn't be surprised if they sign another RD if they're concerned about Tanev's health. That would give the Leafs about 10 potential NHL defenders heading into camp, which is the correct amount of depth.

I think there was some heat regarding Zach Werenski, but that cooled down as it because obvious the Leafs don't have the assets to pry the Norris trophy winner out of CBJ. Insider Trading made it clear not to expect it to happen.

Hildeby or someone new?

Having two unproven goalies behind Anthony Stolarz might not be the safest strategy, so at the very least it shouldn't be a surprise if the Leafs sign/acquire a goalie with a more proven track record. Sergei Bobrovsky reportedly wants to sign in Toronto and there might be mutual interest there. The only other goalies I might sneeze at are Freddy Andersen and Stuart Skinner, so uhh... yeah.

Dennis Hildeby dressing as the backup for basically the entire Calder Cup run was super weird and I expect that storyline to have another act in training camp. We'll see how things unfold.

Potential promotions from the AHL

These are the Marlies who are already under contract.

Bo Groulx - 26 years old - C/LW
Ben Danford - 20 years old - RD
Artur Akhtyamov - 24 years old - G

Long shots from the Marlies who didn't reasonably get close to the Easton Cowan, Juuso Valimaki bar from the Calder Cup Finals.

Luke Haymes - 22 years old - C
Michael Pezzetta - 28 years old - LW (a GWG fiend, but I should probably stop here).

Dark Horses, prospects to keep an eye on for bigger roles in the organization, not necessarily the NHL.

Tinus-Luc Koblar - 18 years old - C
Miroslav Holinka - 20 years old - C

If I missed any players, it's because this isn't a prospect ranking (that's in a couple weeks) or those players aren't signed.

Speculation