One of the things I tell people every year is that the cap space a site like Puck Pedia shows for the Leafs, $25,709,001 at the moment, is not the real offseason cap space. That's a projection aimed at the start of the next regular season, which generally is what you actually want to know.

The offseason cap calculation is more complex, but is done by counting up the full cap hit of all players under contract for the coming season. The full amount counts for everyone who was in the NHL fulltime or who has a one-way contract. The amount is prorated by days played in the NHL in the prior year for two-way contracts. All RFAs currently without contracts are counted at their Qualifying Offer amount prorated as above.

I did a very rough version of this and the Leafs have a little less space than the above, not by much – only about three million. However, the offseason includes a cushion of 10% of the cap ceiling, so in effect, the Leafs offseason cap space now is $32M. That's a lot! Or is it?

The other thing you need to know is that in the period from the end of the regular season to the turn of the year on July 1, teams have to comply with the offseason calculation. There used to be a really complex process called "tagging room" which was done away with in the MOU. Now the offseason calculation is approximately what is used.

Generally when reporters want this information, they just phone Bill Daly because it is so complex. I've tried to hit the ball within the park here not get accuracy to the nearest dollar, so I guessed at Hildeby's days on the team. The Leafs understand all this fully, and this is not news to them. I'm confident they can add. But it is something to keep in mind.

Let's consider what the Leafs are likely to do before July 1.

  • Sign John Tavares
  • Sign Matt Knies
  • Possibly sign Pontus Holmberg and Dennis Hildeby

That all sounds great until you consider that one other small outstanding issue – Mitch Marner.

I'm going to digress here and discuss sign and trade deals. I'm not saying the Leafs are going to make choices assuming Marner won't sign with them, but I am assuming he won't. They might choose to leave the door open a little themselves. But as has been reported and hinted about, there are teams that might be interested in a sign and trade.

This works exactly how it sounds, the Leafs sign Marner to an extension – and this must take place before July 1 – where they can then sign him to an eight-year contract. No one else can sign him to eight years. They can't trade his signing rights and have the new team do the deal. The Leafs have to do it. Then the trade takes place.

The first sign and trade deal under the current salary cap system was the Matthew Tkachuk trade to Florida. Calgary got three players and a first-round pick in return for signing Tkachuk and sending along a later-round pick.

No one is going to give the Leafs a return like that for a Marner sign and trade. The reason Tkachuk drew so much back was because he was an RFA, the Flames had already elected arbitration, and he was under their control for at least one more year at whatever amount arbitration awarded him.

The Leafs would be helping another team manage their cap by spreading Marner's new salary over eight years, and for that you get something more like a gratuity than a return. The Oilers wanted the Leafs to do this with Zach Hyman, and Kyle Dubas decided the (rumoured and never confirmed) two picks being offered was not worth it. It was said that one was in the "first five rounds" which is a way to say crappy without saying crappy. Nonetheless, that's what's likely to be on offer, with one complicating exception.

If the deal is one where the Leafs sign Marner to a new contract with a maximum allowed signing bonus on the first season, which they then pay him on July 1 before trading him, that nets you a more serious return. You would essentially be buying a draft pick or a player with actual money. There's a lot more precedent for the cap space value of a draft pick, but not for straight up cash for a return with no player mixed into the deal.

Statements made recently indicate that the not very friendly relationship between Marner's "camp" and the Leafs might stop any sign and trade from working out at all. But consider that the Leafs might want to hold that door open as well.

Now let's look at that cap space.

If Marner is signed for $13 million, that leaves the remaining chunk of projected offseason space at $19M. And surely that's enough to sign Tavares (rumoured to be willing to go with a discounted amount) and Knies. It is absolutely. Just one problem. What if the Leafs have a trade they want to make at the draft?

Suddenly that offseason space is going to be gobbled up by another player or players and the space could be contracted considerably – for the period of time that Marner is on the Leafs and not yet traded. That isn't more than the time it takes to register the contract and the trade unless they're doing the signing bonus version of the deal, but the receiving team may have some timing and cap issues of their own and not want to do the deal until after the draft regardless.

Maximum flexibility is the goal of cap management at this time of the year. So those deals for the players not leaving might sit and wait, finished and agreed upon, until the other balls in the air come down to Earth.

I expect all of this business to be done and dusted before July 1. Not the RFAs other than Knies, necessarily, that can wait, but the way Marner leaves, and the way the other two stay is going to be sorted out right around draft day. I don't think the Leafs are in the mode right now of splashing out cash on the departing Marner, so the return to get them to do that kind of deal would have to be more than most teams would want to pay. But an ordinary sign and trade? Sure. Another drafted prospect is always good news.

It's two weeks to the draft. It might be two weeks of no news.

Cap Space Shuffle