The Leafs played the Oilers and many things happened. The game was close for most of two periods, but the Oilers sure found their offence against the Leafs.

When is was 6-2, Dennis Hildeby was pulled for Artur Akhtyamov, and while a couple of the third-period goals look bad, well, this game was defence optional at both ends of the rink, and Edmonton didn't need their power play – where Toronto had most of their good shots. The close score of the first two periods matched the Expected Goals more than the outcome did, that's true enough. Akhtryamov got out alive, without giving up a goal.

I'm not going to show all the goals, just this one:

Because no one but the terminally churlish thinks Dennis Hildeby should have had that one.

And then, last night the subject was raised about how real is this Hildeby performance so far this season? And I'd never looked at it closely. I look at goalies on Moneypuck for every preview I write, so I knew that by Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 he was at the top of the list for a long time. He's been supplanted by Habs rookie Jacob Fowler's one game and Nico Daws in a single game for the Devils.

But weird things happen in 10 games, so I wasn't giving it much thought, so I looked it up. I had to switch to the Evolving Hockey Expected Goals model to look at a lot of seasons of results in the NHL. They go back to 2007, when shot location was first collected – the key data point to make an xG model with. I looked at all of those years. All goalies' full seasons for just shy of 20 years.

EH doesn't do GSAX per 60, so I looked at the worst-named stat in history dFSV%. I hate that acronym so much, it is a barrier to understanding when you have to laboriously explain these things. But this is how it works: Save % is calculated, not on Shots of Goal as it is in the NHL stats, but on all unblocked shots. The theory behind using that number – which absolutely includes some misses, and every ping you've ever heard – is that goalies, by how they play, induce near misses. I don't think that's radical thinking. I think anyone can picture that a goalie who moves well and follows the play anticipating shots is forcing the opposing team to try to pick corners. They'll miss more.

Okay, so, since this Save % is based on a larger pool of shots, the numbers are bigger. The top Save % for a goalie this year is Jonathan Quick's .937 in seven games. His Save % on unblocked shots is .958.

Expected Goals are based on unblocked shots. So Quick's expected goals against that he's faced can be turned into an Expected Save % on unblocked shots. His is .929, and the difference between his expected and actual percentage is 2.9. This number is always expressed as a normal percentage with the decimal where it belongs so it isn't an exercise in writing out some zeros. Save % of all kinds makes more sense that way.

That's what the keysmash above is referring to, how much better the goalie is than Expected. Expected being what an average goalie would do on average on the same shots faced by the real guy.

So now where is Hildeby measured this way historically? Or put another way: how good do goalies ever get over a whole season? I know some of the answers in advance, so I'm cheating and calling a full season, 1,400 unblocked shots faced. Most goalies will have more than 30 games played with that figure. And here's why I cheated:

All time, the goalie with at least 1,400 unblocked shots against in a season who has the highest unblocked save percentage over expected is Anthony Stolarz, last year on the Leafs with a measure of 2.1.

That means Quick's performance so far in only a handful of games has been outstanding. And he's not keeping that up. His best ever season with that many games played was 2011-2012 with 1.11 save % over expected, and that's 41st all time. I think you might know what LA did that year.

Dennis Hildeby is at .955 in unblocked % and .923 expected, and that's good for a difference of 3.25. He tops the list this year, and every year for goalies who played at least 10 games.

I seek not to praise Caesar nor to bury him here. Hildeby has been very good in many ways you can just see. And he hasn't had an easy time. He and Stolarz have seen very high Expected Goals Against, and someday we could talk about how light a load the Leafs managed to give Cayden Primeau. Hildeby hasn't been getting that kind of help. He has been getting about the same shot blocking as Stolarz and Joe Woll have seen. Primeau had a lot work done for him in front of his crease.

But this should not be news: 10 games don't maketh the man. He's not going to be the best goalie ever for a whole season. If he continues to play regularly, and he will for a time, he will give up more goals. The number will come down. But when and by how much is unknown. It's not a curse or so Leafy if he isn't going to be outstanding forever. Asking that of the universe is futile – unless your goal is to be disappointed, in which case go for it.

This is not about faith or belief, it's just about Dennis Hildeby as a hockey player, doing his best in tough circumstances. Don't be disappointed in him when he has one stinker of a game or when his mistakes start add up to regression to whatever mean he will settle at. Value him for who he really is.

Sometimes you get lucky when you need it, is the lesson of Hildeby's first 10 games. But you shouldn't go through life needing to get lucky to get by. I think we all know that. That's been the Leafs for the last three years. First a little, then some more, and this year a lot.

And that's Sunday for you. The Leafs play Chicago on Tuesday.

From The Branches