With this weekend coming up the last one before the draft, the watch is on for NHL teams to actually do some things. Although I'll take the point made by Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts yesterday that the only team that seems to be for sure not looking to improve right now is Pittsburgh. And I'm not sure I buy that they'll have a massive selloff. They might trade Noel Aciari though.

First the NHL released a miniflood of deals late yesterday:

Ryan Donato has an Expected Sh % of 8 every year for the last three. He shot at expected in 22-23, way under in 23-24 and waaaaaaaay over in 24-25. If you set out to get overpaid, you couldn't do better.

Trent Frederic:

The NHL does not need some new complicated rule for LTIR usage. They already have all the tools they need.

Which is exactly what this exercise is meant to show you. They just aren't going to release private medical information to satisfy the demand for public disclosure.

Shopping

So how to do this shopping thing. You can just go read someone's trade board or free agent list and get ideas from there. Here they are:

This one is updated occasionally, but they give you the teams linked to various people from media reports.

Summer Trade Watch List 2025 — The Fourth Period
Summer Trade Watch List 2025: The top players believed to be available during the 2025 off-season.
The Fourth PeriodRumours

Their UFA list is the same idea:

Top UFAs 2025 — The Fourth Period
Top UFAs: A list of the top unrestricted free agents hitting the market in July 2025.
The Fourth PeriodRumours

Sportsnet farms this work out to Nick Kypreos:

Real Kyper’s Off-Season Trade Board 1.0: Players to watch this summer
While the Stanley Cup Final begins this week, the off-season has begun for 30 teams across the NHL. With the draft combine going on in Buffalo this week and the draft to follow later in the month, Nick Kypreos introduces his first trade board of the off-season.
Sportsnet.caNick Kypreos

TSN doesn't seem to have a page up yet, and Insider Trading hasn't poked its head out since the Keith Pelley extravaganza. But they will go big on this soon. I enjoy their July 1 coverage for the most part. They have fun people. Sportsnet do not do fun.

This from the end of May seems to be Daily Faceoff's most up to date post:

Peterka, Karlsson, Andersson lead top 20 Trade Targets for NHL offseason
Chris Kreider, John Gibson, Bowen Byram and more land on the list as the market heats up.
Daily FaceoffFrank Seravalli

Just the facts though! Maybe you just want to know who is a UFA or RFA. PuckPedia's player dashboard defaults to that view at this time of the year:

https://puckpedia.com/players

If you haven't looked at this because you've been busy being mad in advance of what the Leafs will do, note that the 10th best by points is Claude Giroux.

Contract projections are a premium feature at Evolving Hockey. The best way to find out someone's projection is to mention them deserving an absurdly lowball number in comments and I will likely tell you the real likely payday.

Buyouts

So the CBA, a very literal document generally, lists the buyout window as opening 48 hrs after the SCF. Now, they don't really mean at 11 pm or so tonight. That's silly. NHL days in-season run from 5 pm Eastern Time to 5 pm the next day. This is how they count days on the roster, on IR etc. So my best guess is that the literal-seeming 48 hrs actually means Friday at noon when players can be placed on waivers for the purposes of a buyout.

All players with NMCs can elect to go on waivers if they like, otherwise, they're bought out immediately. No one is ever claimed on buyout waivers because that would be just profoundly stupid 99.9% of the time.

Bought out players become UFAs on July 1. They usually don't have any troubles discussing new deals in the days between the buyout and the opening of free agency, though.

Most of the time buyouts are a bad idea and either trading the player with some junk pick sweetener or just putting up with them is a better plan.

Waive them and put them in the AHL!!!! I hear that all the time from people confused by the fact that NHL players are actual people who think that sort of treatment sucks and they like to sign with teams that don't suck.

I am on record as in favour of a buyout for Reaves for the above reason, but also for one of the crucial reasons teams pick the buyout route: the player goes away.

I figure the Islanders will buy out that absurd Pierre Engvall deal and the Leafs won't buy out the deal Lou thought he was imitating: the Calle Järnkrok deal. And the reason is the "he goes away" one in both cases.

The buyout window closes on June 30. The second window is a problem for another day.

Qualifying Offers

They are due June 30. Many teams announce them early so players have a jump on free agency. Expect the Leafs to be serious browsers in the unqualified RFA department of the free agent store.

Offer sheets

The only NHL topic I find more repetitive than forced trades via offer sheet is the demand to waive every other player to solve some imaginary problem. For a player to sign an offer sheet you need a team that thinks they're worth a lot less than the player does and/or a player who would like to be traded.

So, Marco Rossi.

But I don't think this situation is news to the Wild and they will just trade him. Should the Leafs bite on that? Well... with what? But the bigger issue is that a bet on him dramatically outperforming his current level or seeing his on-ice numbers travel with him to a new team is a high-risk move. Particularly at a time when a new contract is in straight AAV terms much more expensive than one for a known commodity with a couple of years left. They're making this bet with Matt Knies, not some guy they don't know.

In other words, the Leafs are setting their shopping filter at: under 30, signed a deal during the flat cap. And then changing the age filter when nothing comes up.

No, they aren't getting J.J. Peterka either. No, they can't take a big swing. No, they won't get anyone cost controlled and young and fast who scores lots and was drafted in the top 10. They have to be smarter than teams with dozens of picks. And this shouldn't be news to anyone since that's life in a decade-long playoff run.

Remember all those annoying people who have been saying for years that you can't win a Marner trade? Well, you can't win a "walks as a UFA" either.

Okay, that's it. If there was other news I missed it, go forth and speculate about wildly improbable deals, or something really bananas like signing Connor Brown.

From The Branches