I've been writing an article like this for years, every since I stole the idea from the Penguins SBN site. Usually it's very easy. This year, it's not, and in advance of Brad Treliving speaking to the media I'm guessing from little information. It would be too easy to wait a day, so I chose to make it harder, but there are still some obvious answers.

UFAs

Mitch Marner

I think the reporting on this is clear, and he is leaving to sign somewhere else as a free agent.

John Tavares

I think the reporting on this is clear, and barring any last minute snags, he is going to re-sign. Likely very soon.

Max Pacioretty

If he doesn't retire, he might come back on a one-year deal.

Steven Lorentz

If there weren't more famous names to be signed first, he'd already have a deal.

Jani Hakanpää

I assume his hockey playing days are over, but he sure did participate in a lot of practices down the stretch. Might he be this year's Matt Murray re-signing?

Matt Murray

Speaking of: I think his AHL performance warranted a longer look in the NHL, so maybe his choice will be a team that will play him. But he might want a stable home life in Toronto too, hard to say. The crowded minor-league crease is a bit of an illusion considering how much the Marlies ended up playing Murray this year. They might be in the market for a veteran goalie regardless.

Alex Steeves

He technically played some NHL, so I'll include him and a few others. As a Group 6 UFA, Steeves is surely going to scamper off to some team that could potentially play him on their fourth line. The Leafs aren't going to.

Alex Nylander

Does he want to live in Toronto? If so, he might re-up to the AHL again.

Dakota Mermis

He's not cracking the Leafs lineup, so this is more about his choice about where he wants to live or if he thinks he has a chance in the NHL somewhere else. He really doesn't.

RFAs

The tricky question with some RFAs is how many minutes they played when they have arbitration rights because that's how Timothy Liljegren ended up overpaid.

Pontus Holmberg

He averaged almost 12 minutes a game at five-on-five and played 68 games. Not the greatest arbitration case, and he's not a goal-scorer. His Qualifying Offer is low enough at $866,250 to be the basis for a new contract. I think he signs for something that makes the Leafs want to keep him around.

Nick Robertson

He played 12 minutes a game, shot 13% and sat for all but three playoff games. The only case he has in arbitration is his goals, so I don't think the Leafs are going to be afraid of any award and I'm not sure he's any more interested in playing in Toronto now than he was last summer. This might be a long, tedious, fruitless attempt to trade him again. Or Treliving might just not qualify him.

Trade Possibilities

Other than Robertson, there are some players actually under contract who might be traded.

Max Domi

I have a fairly weakly supported belief the Leafs were very willing to move him at the deadline and either could not or didn't need to. There was little reporting on this, but he was asked about it after the fact, and expressed what seemed like legitimate relief he wasn't moved. I think there's something real there.

He has a 13-team no-trade clause he has no reason to waive, and is neither useless nor worth his cap hit. And seriously, I mean this, telling me he is "fine" is not a counter argument. He is overpaid. Also Craig Berube made him a fourth liner who plays PP2 in the playoffs. Scott Laughton took his job, and he was not all that great for most of the time prior.

This would not be a trade for a player of value unless that player was very overpaid. It's either a contract dump for a worse contract or a trade for a guy looking for a change of scenery.

David Kämpf

The coach can't find a use for him. He's traded if anyone will take two years at $2.4M.

Calle Järnkrok

I don't see the market for him in trade nor any reason to buy him out. It's one year at $2.1 million for a useful player. Why worry about him?

Ryan Reaves

Should be bought out.

Bobby McMann

A somewhat spicy take given his popularity, but why did he fail to do this year the things he did last year? (This means be a defensive powerhouse, not score some small number of goals.) Maybe it's happenstance, or maybe now is the time to send him on his way to make roster room.

Morgan Rielly

Rumour man of the year. I don't see why he'd waive the NMC.

Any Other Defenceman

No. Why would you do that? If someone top-pair level comes along, maybe it would be considered, but everyone has some level of trade protection except Simon Benoit, and he's a bargain.

So what's that add up to: Marner and a few maybes, none particularly important.

Offseason