Today, the NHL has announced that the salary cap for next season will be $81.5 million.
It’s official now. $81.5M salary cap. Salary floor is $60.2M
— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 22, 2019
Earlier projections had the cap at $83 million, and that’s the figure most people have been using for projections for next season. This slight decrease in that upper limit won’t affect very many teams, but the ones who care, might care a lot.
The bigger issue around the salary cap is the question of the so-called inflator. That figure is the amount the NHLPA must vote on and agree to. The purpose of the inflator is to pump up the salary cap over and above the 50% of Hockey Related Revenue projections, in a way that assumes the coming season’s actual revenues will outstrip projections.
The inflator has had the effect in the past of inflating UFA salaries, and also inflating the amount of escrow that is held back from all NHL salaries, and ultimately might never be repaid.
If you’re now totally, lost, you might need to go read this:
Related
Escrow, cap inflators, and HRR; what does that all mean?
The players don’t like escrow, and they want to be paid their entire salary. It seems that the idea has finally taken hold that resisting the temptation to go for a big inflator and gamble on future revenues rising faster than projected is a way to ensure they get paid more.
The history of escrow amounts withheld, and then ultimately repaid years later when the final numbers are crunched shows why they don’t like it.
History of NHL Escrow
| Season | Withheld | Refunded | Salary Lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | 4.10% | 3% | 1.10% |
| 2010-11 | 12.40% | 10% | 2.40% |
| 2011-12 | 8.50% | 8% | 0.50% |
| 2012-13 | 16.30% | 1.60% | 14.70% |
| 2013-14 | 14% | 3.80% | 10.20% |
| 2014-15 | 15% | 2.05% | 12.95% |
| 2015-16 | 17% | 3.20% | 13.80% |
| 2016-17 | 15.50% | TBD | ??? |
| 2017-18 | 11.50% | TBD | ??? |
| 2018-19 | 13.50% | TBD | ??? |
The inflator isn’t the reason for escrow, but it is part of the reason it’s grown so big, and the amount refunded has not.
I know what you’re thinking, you’re thinking, how does the affect the Leafs?
The Leafs are very much one of the few teams for whom a difference of a few hundred thousand matters. The difference between the projected amount and the actual amount of the cap is a little more than one player in a not very significant role or on an ELC. So, it’s not ideal, but it’s not a big deal either, and this change had to come, and now is when it arrived.
The expectation is that the cap will rise in the future as US television contracts drive revenue up. When that happens, the Leafs can start spending like drunken Islanders on their fourth line again. Until then, I’m trusting to Brandon Pridham’s spreadsheets but since the Leafs made a cap-clearing deal today, have a look at it as it is right now:
Maple Leafs Salary Cap calculation as of June 22
| Name | Cap Hit (or Qualifying Offer) | Days in NHL If 2-way | Prorated Cap Hit | Regular Season Cap Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One-Way Contracts | ||||
| Auston Matthews | 11,634,000 | 11,634,000 | 11,634,000 | |
| John Tavares | 11,000,000 | 11,000,000 | 11,000,000 | |
| William Nylander | 6,962,366 | 6,962,366 | 6,962,366 | |
| Nazem Kadri | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | |
| Zach Hyman | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | 2,250,000 | |
| Connor Brown | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 | 2,100,000 | |
| Trevor Moore | 775,000 | 775,000 | 775,000 | |
| Nic Petan | 775,000 | 775,000 | 775,000 | |
| Morgan Rielly | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | 4,500,000 | |
| Jake Muzzin | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | 4,000,000 | |
| Justin Holl | 675,000 | 675,000 | 675,000 | |
| Calle Rosen | 750,000 | 750,000 | 750,000 | |
| Frederik Andersen | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | 5,000,000 | |
| Garrett Sparks | 750,000 | 750,000 | 750,000 | |
| Nathan Horton | 5,300,000 | 5,300,000 | 5,300,000 | |
| Two-Way Contracts | ||||
| Frederik Gauthier | 675,000 | 180 | 675,000 | 675,000 |
| Travis Dermott | 863,333 | 180 | 863,333 | 863,333 |
| Ilya Mikheyev | 925,000 | 0 | 0 | 925,000 |
| Egor Korshkov | 925,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pierre Engvall | 925,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jeremy Bracco | 842,500 | 0 | 0 | |
| Semyon Der Arguchintsev | 783,333 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mason Marchment | 767,500 | 0 | 0 | |
| Adam Brooks | 759,167 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dmytro Timashov | 694,444 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rasmus Sandin | 894,167 | 0 | 0 | |
| Timothy Liljegren | 863,333 | 0 | 0 | |
| Joe Duszak | 800,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mac Hollowell | 799,766 | 0 | 0 | |
| Teemu Kivihalme | 792,500 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jesper Lindgren | 775,833 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andreas Borgman | 700,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ian Scott | 805,833 | 0 | 0 | |
| Joseph Woll | 800,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kasimir Kaskisuo | 675,000 | 6 | 22,500 | |
| Qualifying Offers | ||||
| Andreas Johnsson | 862,875 | 180 | 862,875 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 874,125 | 180 | 874,125 | |
| Mitch Marner | 874,125 | 874,125 | ||
| Michael Carcone | 735,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gabriel Gagne | 735,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nicholas Baptiste | 826,875 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jordan Subban | 715,000 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eamon McAdam | 874,125 | 1 | 4,856 | |
| Retained | 1,200,000 | |||
| Total: | 71,348,180 | 68,434,699 | ||
| Salary Cap | 81,500,000 | 81,500,000 | ||
| 10% overage | 8,150,000 | |||
| Total: | 89,650,000 | |||
| Cap Space | 18,301,820 | 13,065,301 |
I’m leaving out the rumoured deals for Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen until they are final, and this isn’t a complete roster, of course. If you thought trading Patrick Marleau solved everything, well, it’s still a squeeze in many ways.
