It's near the end of January, now the World Juniors have come and gone, we're more than halfway through the season of many leagues, and most importantly of all – Bob McKenzie's mid-season ranking just dropped. It's time for another look at some prospects for the NHL draft that seem interesting for Toronto.

As usual, I'm trying to balance the prospects I look at not just for guys I love the most. I am specifically looking at guys who a) I like, b) are at least somewhat realistic options to be available in the range of Toronto's draft pick(s), and c) are the kinds of prospects I think Toronto may like.

So without further faffing about, let's get to it.

FORWARDS

Shane Vansaghi

Vanshagi is a really interesting player for me. He's very much a power winger, not unlike Knies. He works hard, skates hard, throws big hits, but has interesting skill to go with it. He's an American born, 6'2" and 216 lb beast that can be a major handful for defenders. He gets rave reviews for his details, little things, and using his physical play with and without the puck, taking the puck to the middle of the ice, and just being smart. Vansaghi is already playing in the NCAA in a pretty good program at Michigan State. Every forward on the team, aside from Vansaghi, is 20+ years old, so two or more years older than he is. Likely because of that and the style he plays, he's been on the their fourth line quite a lot – but he's 6th on the team in points (12) in 24 games, despite not getting a minimal role at either even strength or on the powerplay.

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

That is well below Knies' freshman season in the NCAA, but Vansaghi is playing college hockey in his draft year as an 18 year old while Knies was still playing in junior. He started the season on Bob McKenzie's first ranking in the first round, but dropped to 51st in the second round. That is likely because he hasn't won a big role or had gaudy point totals yet, and there is a concern about his skating too. He likely wouldn't be as good as Knies has become, but I'd still like him as another supporting power winger as a second round swing.

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Shane Vansaghi (#23 in white/green) - Highlights from @DanielGScouting on Twitter

Vaclav Nestrasil

Nestrasil is not unlike Vansaghi. He's taller and not as purely physical, but is a better skater and arguably has more pure skill. But he definitely uses his size and physical play to his advantage. He's a Czech winger, 6'5" but only 190 lbs, playing in the USHL this year with a commit to join UMass in the NCAA next year. He's on a pretty strong Muskegon team, playing as their second line right winger. He's been on a slow, upward trend all season. He has 12 goals and 27 points in 38 games, but has 19 points in his last 17 games.

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Vaclav Nestrasil (#24) - Assists, Transitions and Playmaking

Nestrasil is hard working, has some skating mechanic kinks to work out, but skates hard and is deceptively fast because of his tall he is. He will throw his weight around, and he has plenty of room to add more muscle and become a real menace. But he also has a good mix of playmaking skill, he can transport the puck to be a good transition driver, and has a pretty wicked shot he can get off in close – which is where he scores most of his goals. He's also defensively responsible, he has like 3-4 empty net goals because he is trusted to defend late leads, and he has such a long reach he's good at creating turnovers as the opposing team makes passes up and down, or side to side from the point. He was ranked at 60th in McKenzie's latest rankings, so he's right in Toronto's range.

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Vaclav Nestrasil (#24) - Goals

Hayden Paupanekis

Paupanekis was a 'glitter player' for me, which means I noticed him positively while paying attention to someone else (Toronto's prospect Nathan Mayes) who was on his team. Paupanekis is a toolsy guy, he's 6'4" and 198 lbs, he's a center who wins 52% of faceoffs as a 17 year old, and he's shown decent production (29 points in 44 games) and tracking data in a limited (3rd line center) role on a deep Spokane team that has the 2nd best record in the WHL. He was traded to Kelowna in a mega deal that brought the league's leading scorer to Spokane, and has started as their 1C. With a bigger opportunity he's already having a bit of a breakout in production – he has 10 points in 7 games since the trade, but even before that he had 5 points in 5 games leading into the trade.

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

If you like a Fraser Minten kind of player, that's who Paupanekis reminds me of in terms of being a smart, sort of physical, two-way center who has some offense to him. However, as of now I'd say he's clearly a lesser version of Minten. Paupanekis seems like he could be a secondary scoring kind of guy both because he already has a good shot, but also because he uses his physical tools to be a menace around the net. A lot of his goals come from him being in front of the net and tapping home good passes, or shoveling rebounds into the net. He's another guy who's just solid all-around, even if he doesn't have any elite, standout skills or tools. In Bob McKenzie's rankings just published last week, Paupanekis was ranked 70th. He has a chance to be a late riser that winds up as a 2nd rounder.

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Hayden Paupanekis (#22 in red/white or #23 in blue/black) - Highlights

Alexander Zharovsky

A bit of a classic skilled Russian forward, Zharovsky is a 6'1" left shot winger but pretty lanky at 163 lbs. He has some physical projection based on the assumption he may grow another inch or two and has room to fill out his frame. He leads his MHL team in goals (19) and points (40) in 37 games played, which leads his team by 10 points and is the most for all U18 players in the league. He's had a very strong second half to the season – he had only 6 points in his first 16 games, and then 34 points in the 21 games since. He has a lot of skill handling the puck, making passes, breaking down defenses and creating offensive chances. He's a great skater in terms of agility and nimbleness, making pretty crazy cuts and spins on a dime. The drawback of his skating is a lack of speed and explosiveness as of now. That's something I can see improving more as he builds more muscle. He shows a good work ethic and can be an aggressive forechecker to steal pucks and create more offense off turnovers, and he's a pretty decent defensive winger, at least for the MHL.

From Lassi Alanen's Europe Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

The worry with Zharovsky is that he plays in the Eastern conference of the MHL, which is much weaker than the West. So while Tolpar leads their division in the standings, the competition his team mostly faces are weak – and the MHL has already become a pretty weak junior league over the past few years. So while he's piling up an impressive looking point total, when you watch how some of those points come to happen you may instead be asking how he doesn't have a ton more because of how bad the competition looks trying to defend him. The good note is that he is still at a point per game against teams int eh good conference. I do also think his hero-hockey mentality may not be too big an issue, because it's showcasing his stick handling in tight and just how strong he is on the puck to fight off checks from multiple defenders. He wasn't ranked by Bob McKenzie at all, so as of now he's not considered even as a third rounder. But honestly, Zharovsky has become one of the most fun prospects I've watched this year and I would love for him to be a mid-round gamble if his rankings stay at the same level.

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Alexander Zharovsky (#88 in green/white) - Highlights

Shamar Moses

Moses as a player seems to excel in most areas of play. He's a 6'1" winger playing in the OHL, with 35 points in 36 games with North Bay as of writing this. That's good for third on the team in points, despite playing seven fewer games than the two ahead of him. He actually started the season with Barrie, but had a very small role and had no points in five games before being traded. Since then, what I like about Moses is that he is a solid all-around player. He's good at carrying the puck, has good vision and creativity to make passes, and does a lot of good smart things in terms of his positioning and transitions. His tracking data looks very strong in general, with particular

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

Moses was an honourable mention by Bob McKenzie, just outside of the top 80 ranked players. So he is on some NHL teams' radars but is generally considered outside the second round. He could wind up being a third rounder, or as a second rounder at the end of the year with a strong finish to the season. If his offense comes together more, I could see it happening. What's holding him back right now is that while he's smart and solid across the board, he doesn't show a great sense for scoring goals. It might be poor luck, but I'd say his ability to execute high level plays is not consistent at a high level.

DEFENSE

Peyton Kettles

Kettles is someone I didn't think I would include in my watch list, because in Bob McKenzie's first ranking of the year he was solidly in the first round. I guess his stock has dwindled, and I can both see why but still be interested in him as a second rounder. His stats don't look great – he has only 3 goals and 9 points in 33 games. His tracking data doesn't look like something a first rounder would have either, but there's enough interesting bits in his game and profile that make him seem like the exact kind of guy I'd want to swing on in the second round.

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

But as I always say, context matters. Swift Current is not a good team – they have only one defenseman older than 17 year to start the season, and Kettles has been used as one of their top defensemen all year. He's a 6'5", right shot defenseman who rarely gets powerplay time. And as you can see from the tracking data, there are some things he's been quite good at: he drives a lot of zone exits, passes across the ice well, and is pretty good at defense in a bigger role. Considering he has a September birthday, he is one of the youngest prospects in this draft and has a lot of room to develop and improve. Ranked almost smack dab in the middle of the second round on McKenzie's list at 45.

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Peyton Kettles (#4 in blue/green) - Highlights

Anthony Allain-Samaké

Allain-Samaké is a 6'0", 165 lbs left-shot defenseman from Quebec, but playing in the USHL. He is committed to joining UConn next year in the NCAA, and with a September 10th birthday he is one of the youngest players in this year's draft. Despite being so young, he has been an impact defenseman in the USHL. It is typically a lower scoring league than the CHL, so while his 12 points in 37 games doesn't look great he's fourth among U18 defensemen in points and not far from the leader. He has good mobility, but can definitely add more power and quickness once he fills out more and smooths out his mechanics.

Allain-Samaké a guy that I think is pretty raw at this point due to his age and lack of weight, but has potential as a project. He's already showing off good smarts, positioning, and defensive instincts. Offensively he's even more raw, but I like his passing game to help exit the defensive zone at a good rate. It's more through the neutral zone and generating offense that he's lacking execution and high level skill as of now. He was an honourable mention on McKenzie's rankings this month.

Josh McGregor

I noticed McGregor a lot while watching his teammate, Peyton Kettles, who I talked about above. He still has work to do to become a second round guy, but he has a few things going for him that I like. He's on the younger side for the draft with a June birthday, he's 6'3" and a very good skater, and he's just a solid all-around defenseman in all the areas I care about. So far, he doesn't seem to be on anyone's draft rankings except as maybe a late round guy. He only has 4 goals and 12 points in 42 games so far, but most of them are primary points and he doesn't get a lot of opportunity for offense in his role, since he's generally been used as a third pairing and left-shot guy.

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

He's been used all over, on the left and right sides and bouncing up and down the pairings at times. He doesn't get any powerplay time, but looks good on the penalty kill. The other thing about him is that he was not drafted in the WHL. This season he earned a roster spot out of their training camp, and until this year he was playing in AAA. He could be a late development project that Toronto has liked in recent years. I've only stumbled into him recently, but I'll be watching and following him more for the rest of the year. My one concern is that he looks good in a more limited role, generally speaking. His teammate, Kettles, may not have as many points or tracking data that looks as good, but he is more sheltered. He wasn't ranked by McKenzie, so consider him a mid-round pick at best as of now.

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Josh McGregor (#5 in white/blue) - Highlights

David Bedkowski

I've seen Bedkowski quite a bit this year while watching his teammate, Sam McCue on Owen Sound. Bedkowski is a 6'5", 214 lb right shot defenseman who is on the older side of this year's draft, with a December 2006 birthday. He was traded as very early in the season from Oshawa, as one of the main pieces that brought in the deal that sent Colby Barlow the other way. You can see his strengths in his tracking data below – he is exceptional defensively, killing offense in the neutral and defensive zones using his size, reach, and physical play to neutralize puck carriers and interrupt passes. While he does throw big hits and push smaller players around, he's also capable with simple stick checks.

From Mitch Brown's CHL Tracking Data: https://www.patreon.com/c/user/posts?u=13951676

Bedkowski's issue is that he hasn't shown a lot offensively, with only 6 points in 27 games so far. While he can pull off the occasional deke and flash a good pass, he's not pulling anything like that off on a consistent basis. His skating looks to be just average right now, but I'd say he has room to improve in that area – I'm not at all a skating guy to really know. He was ranked 56th by McKenzie last week, so he would be right in Toronto's range in the second round. He wouldn't be my first choice there, but if you're worried about an archetypical Treliving pick, Bedkowski is arguably one of the actually better guys that fit the type. He's more one dimensional than Kettles, but that dimension is really good.

Daniil Skvortsov

Skvortsov is Russian-born but playing for Guelph in the OHL this year. He's a 6'4", 214 lb left-shot defenseman who has a similar profile as Bedkowski in terms of having more of a reputation as a defensive defenseman. There is no tracking data available for Skvortsov yet, but he at least has more production with 15 points in 39 games this season. His usage has been a bit all over the place. He's mostly played on their second pairing, but whether he's been on the left and right side has been like a 70/30 split. He's also spent time on the third pair or as the seventh defenseman, and a bit of time on the top pair.

From what the scouts say, Skvortsov has a good reputation for his defensive play but – like others mentioned on this list – he's more potential than actual right now. He uses his size and physicality well, both on defense and to shield the puck when retrieving dump ins and loose pucks in the corner to get it out of his own zone. He has a pretty good shot and decent passing, bu this offensive game in particular is raw and will need development. He looks slower than he'd need to be, but right now he at least has a good foundation in terms of having smooth strides and transitions – he isn't all Bambi-legs, like Chadwick was. Skvortsov was not ranked at all by McKenzie, so consider him more of a late round project unless he takes more of a leap towards the end of the season.

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Daniil Skvortsov #59 in Red - Offensive Highlights

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