2025 NHL Draft Profile: Cole McKinney

The American National Team Development Program has been a source for many top draft picks in recent years: he Hughes brothers, the Hutson brothers, Logan Cooley, Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Jake Sanderson, Matt Boldy, Cole Caufield, and I could go on. They have had a couple of prospects taken in the first round at the very least every year going back past 2020.

So it's surprising that this year's crop seems like a bit of a down year. A big part of that is because they have four of the top players from their program already making the jump to the NCAA who have all been ranked in the first round. But that's usually been the case, and there just didn't seem to be the same quality of depth players in the NTDP this year. At least, not until a bit down the stretch when guys like Cole McKinney have emerged.

THE BASICS: STATS AND CONTEXT

• Position: Right-shot centre
• League(s): USHL
• Height: 6'0"
• Weight: 200 lbs
• Birthdate: January 3rd, 2007

Here are his draft rankings, as of writing this:

• Bob McKenzie: 49th
• Corey Pronman: 39th
• Will Scouch: 32nd
• Elite Prospects: 51st
• Scott Wheeler: 40th
• Dobber Prospects: 31st
• FC Hockey: 20th
• McKeen's Hockey: 34th
• HockeyProspect.com: Not ranked

McKinney started this season on the top line for the NTDP, but on the wing. Pretty quickly, he has earned a regular spot as their top line centre both for their regular season play, but also internationally for Team USA at various tournaments – the Five Nations exhibition, the World U18 Championship, and the Top Prospects Showdown between the top American and Canadian prospects. While the program isn't as deep as it has been, there still was competition for that spot with guys like William Moore.

McKinney is legitimately good enough to be a 1C on a top program this year. He may not be someone you'd consider as the top of that tier, but he is someone that has been used in all situations on the top units – at even strength, on the power play, and on the penalty kill. His versatility also extends to how he's been used at all strengths. On the powerplay, I've seen him fill in as the net front guy, to the half wall, to the point guy firing both passes and shots from the top of the circle.

Because of his top usage, but also from his own legitimate talent, he was among the team leaders for the program in production. His 39 goals and 81 points both narrowly led the U18 program in their regular games. His 9 goals and 17 points in 13 international games (as of Apr 27) are also either tied for the lead or narrowly lead Team USA.

THE GOOD: INTELLIGENT PLAY-DRIVING CENTRE

When it comes to his offensive ability, McKinney has some clear strengths. He is a major driver of the offense for his team because of his puck handling, and ability to carry it through the neutral zone on transitions. He's gotten better and more effective at attacking defenders off the rush and creating openings that create scoring chances. What helps a lot in this area is that he makes plays with a consistently high pace. He skates hard, makes quick decisions with the puck whether shooting, carrying or passing. One of the reasons why he produces more than his teammates, even those on his line, is not necessarily because he is the most skilled – it's because his intelligence, play driving, work ethic, and position as a centre means he is involved in more plays.

McKinney's shot is also quick and accurate, and though it won't be ever considered to be at an elite level it is a weapon he can use. He can rip a good one-timer, and has an effective wrist shot when he is both stationary and skating at speed. The fact that's good at almost everything helps keep defenses and goalies off balance, since you can't just sit on the one thing he's good at (cough Domi cough). To me, he definitely seems like one of those 'greater than the sum of his parts' kind of player.

When McKinney passes it, he rarely watches it but will keep moving to get open in dangerous areas of the ice with speed. His game is built on simple but effective plays where he makes quick reads and acts accordingly. Most importantly, down the stretch this season he's been showing flashes of a higher offensive upside. This is something I've seen while watching his games through this season, but I've seen scouts make the same remarks.

McKinney is above average, not just as a passer, but also as a puck handler and a shooter. I wouldn't say any of those three skills are at a high level right now, but being good at all three helps each individual element be more effective. As a playmaker, his passing isn't consistently dynamic, but it is accurate and versatile. He is able to make passes from his backhand for outlet passes, passing for breakouts and zone entries, and making passes into high-danger areas on offensive possessions. He has shown flashes of more advanced vision and playmaking, where he's been able to make more creative and difficult passes through traffic.

What brings everything together is McKinney's intelligence and work ethic. I'll start with the high level of hockey sense/hockey IQ/whatever buzzword you want to use that describes his ability to process and anticipate the game on the ice. He showcases a highly adaptable style of play, and that makes him a very smart and versatile two-way centre.

When McKinney doesn't have the puck, he showcases smart movement, timing and positioning so he is always an open option to receive passes. He is also clever in providing screens, picks, and other little things to get in the way of the defense trying to get set up and allow his teammates more time and space. In the neutral zone, he is more likely than not to make good reads against the rush, getting his stick and/or body in the way to stall the transition attempt by the other team, or to create a turnover and counter attack. Again, he doesn't necessarily look like an elite defensive forward but he's just solid across the board.

Then there's McKinney's work ethic and physical resiliency. Despite being just an average sized player, he is not shy in going to the dirty areas of the ice – nor does he lose a lot of battles against bigger peers. He will take and make hits in order to make a play. He also demonstrates a strong work ethic when it comes to backchecking, forechecking, and defense, and gets high grades for his motor.

Physically, he is able to play a pretty effective power forward-style game, playing as the net-front presence on the powerplay at times. I have some questions around if he can maintain that level of play, in that style, when he gets to the pros considering he is just an average size, but he could if he develops his muscles, balance, and physical leverage. He also engages physically in board work, both offensively and defensively, and is more advanced in this area than most of his peers. He is just one of those players I like, where even if he doesn't develop into an offensive star, there's plenty of ways he can 'hit' as a prospect and have a positive and valuable impact on the ice for his team.

THE FLAWS: LACK OF DYNAMIC SKILL

As is also often the case with prospects of this type that I profile, the downside is that there are definitely more question marks around his projection in terms of offensive potential. While McKinney feels like a safer bet to be an NHLer one day, he is likely not going to be a star. One area for development is McKinney's overall skill level, which is currently viewed as average. I've seen some scouts rate it below average, but I don't agree with that. He certainly may be below average for flash, but I'd counter that his intelligence makes him more effective in terms of executing skill plays.

Still, McKinney's puck handling is an aspect that could use improvement to unlock more of his offensive potential as an overall puck carrier, especially on transitions. So despite some of his flashes of higher-end skill, the consistency of his ability to try and succeed with these higher level plays is a question mark for his future development. A related area for improvement is McKinney's skating. I think he looks pretty quick, agile and fast as of right now, but I've seen some scouts say he has a more limited level of explosiveness when he changes direction – this is something that is noted to affect his ability to create more space for himself when handling the puck, and make his ability to get to more dangerous areas of the ice inconsistent.

So, at best, I would say that McKinney could become a two-way second-line centre that does all the little things at a high level and helps facilitate things for his wingers to capitalize on offensively. More realistically, he's a bottom-six guy. The question is if he winds up being more of a Kämpf, Holmberg, or Lorentz kind of bottom six forward, or a higher end third line center who can play in all situations and maybe drive his own line in that area of a lineup. I've seen some scouts state his likely projection to be as a fourth line player. So if you usually don't like 'safe' prospects in the draft like that, you might not be as much of a fan of McKinney.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

My counter to the questions of his projection is that when you're looking at a late second round pick, the guys who are remaining with higher offensive upside have their own problems. They're more likely to not turn into anything in the NHL – if their offense was so obviously great that it was enough for them to have an obvious path to the pros, they'll have already been taken in the first round. Same thing if they had a more balanced projection for other areas outside of offense, while also still having a better offensive upside.

As it is, McKinney is still likely to be off the board when Toronto's second round pick comes up. McKenzie had him ranked only just outside of the first round in his mid-season rankings, and while he hasn't had an explosive end to his season that would make one believe his final rankings could be higher, he also hasn't played so poorly it seems likely for him to fall by a lot. So if he does fall, it will be more because there are a bunch of late risers who did finish this season with more hype and leap frog him.

Basically, I see McKinney as a solid all around centre with enough upside to make me like him as a middle six sort of guy – basically a replacement for Fraser Minten. He would fill a very important position of need for the Leafs, which is potential centre depth. I would take him with a late second round pick with no hesitation, if he does slip that far on draft day.

Thanks for reading!

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