It's very hard to be objective about some players or situations in hockey. The idea has been floated by many that pending UFA Brad Marchand may sign with the Leafs after his one year run in Florida. And I really struggle with what I think about this because it would be very, very funny.

It would be hilarious to watch people have to switch their view of his bullshit. It would be a lot of fun to see people actually watch him play to see his play, not just to be mad about his bullshit. I would like a chance to do that myself not least because I thought he was ineffective in the Four-Nations, in the lineup by reputation, not impact, and then he went to Florida and has been pretty much ideal for them – once he got over his injury and got in the groove there.

First off, though, will he even leave Florida? There's lots of rumours about what they are going to do, but I never take that seriously when a team is still in it. But he is such an obvious fit (right now) with Anton Lundell that the Panthers have to consider making him an offer. Bill Zito said on the ice after the win that he thinks they can bring them all back – Marchand, Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad.

Reputation costs, though. Florida, who will surely want to go hard at the Cup again with a healthy Matthew Tkachuk might not really be able to pay his price. And that's the same problem the Leafs will have. The Leafs need a winger a teensy bit more than the Panthers, though. But that price is getting talked up to the $8 million range – term never really discussed.

This is my short answer to should the Leafs sign him. At that price, if he brings Lundell with him, they totally should.

Which isn't just a smartass remark borne out of difficulty accepting that's what a guy like him actually does cost. There is a lot of truth in the Lundell - Marchand pairing allowing Marchand to excel on another "more than the sum of its parts" line after years with Patrice Bergeron. Teammates are the biggest impact on individual player results – points if you want the weakest indicator, goals if you want the second-weakest or you can use more robust measures, it doesn't matter – no player owns all his own results.

Having said that, I don't think Marchand would turn into a pumpkin on the Leafs, but I wouldn't count on his impacts on Corsi coming along for the ride.

This is just this year, and I looked at three years to see if there was any big disruption from his change of team this year, and the answer is no, it's about the same. He barely played any regular season in Florida, of course, and he was arguably one of the top two forwards on the Bruins all year.

This is the profile of a legitimate scoring line winger, but if that's the best in the league for $8 million, something is really wrong.

Marchand isn't the best in the entire NHL, obviously, because he is 37 years old. Ten years ago, he played 14 minutes at five-on-five. Now he plays 13. Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Matt Knies all play more five-on-five minutes than that. His usage has always been a little bit of an illusion, where he plays a little less than everyone else in the top-six while not putting in anything like the minutes Marner does on special teams.

He's always really been a third-liner who just happens to play well on a top-six line constructed with a strong centre. His role in Florida works out because they've actually built their team on a bit of an illusion. They have a top four or five, and they compensate with a very strong third line. Hey... that's a good idea.

Anyway, Marchand is not stepping into Marner's role in full, in other words. Not that anyone else can, likely, but filling Marner's five-on-five minutes is the easy part of replacing him or it should be. Marchand would need to add considerable value to the power play to be the right guy for the Leafs.

The other issue here is that you should never shop from the winning teams. This is true about drafting Henry Brzustewicz, and it's true about signing either Marchand or Sam Bennett. Marchand has so exceeded expectations that he's not going to have to negotiate down much from an asking price in the $8 million range.

The term on a Marchand deal is largely irrelevant. Fans love worrying about term, but the famous Patrick Marleau situation is unlikely to happen as long as everyone understands things going in. Marchand is likely playing out his career on his next deal, and that raises an interesting point: Name a multi-year contract that extended into a player's 40s. Jaromir Jagr's last multi-year deal ended when he was 37 as did Joe Thornton's. Marleau's Leafs deal took him to 39. Chris Tanev's deal takes him to age 40 and I couldn't find another that ended with a player that old, but there might be one. The NHL is going to ask some questions if Marchand's deal is longer than three years. It's not clear if they'd refuse to accept such a deal, but let's just say seven years likely would be assumed to be circumvention.

But is he really worth that ask for one year? I struggle to accept that.

You know who is actually dramatically better than Marchand on the power play and at actual goal generation at five-on-five (not the Corsi stuff, though)? John Tavares. And he's a youngster at 35 next training camp. That's not terribly helpful in filling those existing top-six holes on the Leafs, however.

What if Marchand and his big contract isn't the best, but is the best available? Do you pay it and hope he's got another year at least 75% of this one in him? If you're hoping he repeats this year, you've made the first most obvious mistake in assessing the risk. What if he has a 70% a 50% and an LTIR year? That might be hopelessly optimistic still, but is that good enough?

It would be funny, though. I also think it would work. It might actually be possible, and some of my preferred alternatives likely aren't – Jonathan Marchessault is likely not getting traded to the Leafs, for example.

I think I'm emotionally hedging in case this happens. It is objectively a stupid idea, though. Sometimes stupid is all you've got.

Offseason