Getting to Know Tinus Luc Koblar

In recent years, Toronto has made a habit of making a bunch of "surprise" draft selections, especially with whatever their top pick is on any given year. Knies was only a bit of a surprise, Minten was a bigger one, Cowan was a huge one, and Danford was probably more at the Minten level.

This year may have taken the cake, however. Tinus Luc Koblar was not ranked very high (if at all) by the vast majority of scouts and scouting outlets. He wasn't on Bob McKenzie's final ranking even as an honourable mention, which covered the top 90ish players. I think one of Pronman's mock drafts had him being taken by someone, but only in the 100's.

So it was a big surprise to see him being taken so early, even if it was basically a third round pick. But we as Leaf fans are used to these surprises, and by now we're used to winding up being pretty pleased by the selection.

Spoiler: I think that will be the case for Koblar, who I think will become a fan favourite once he's here in North America.

THE BASICS: STATS AND CONTEXT

Position: Left-shot centre
League: J20 Nationell (Sweden)
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 190 lbs
Birth date: July 21st, 2007

Koblar has a fascinating background. Both of his parents were from Slovenia and were three time Olympic athletes for their country between 1994 and 2002. His father was an alpine skier, and his mother was a biathlete – that's the one where you alternate between long distance cross country skiing and shooting targets. Suffice to say, he inherited the nature and nurture of high level competitive athletes. Despite being born in Slovenia, when his parents retired as athletes they moved to Norway after falling in love with the country during the '94 Lillehammer Olympics. And that's where Tinus was raised for most of his life.

In Norway, Koblar joined Storhamar, one of the country's top hockey programs. As a 15 year old, he split his season between the U18 junior league there, where he was 4th in his age group for points. He also played in 10 games against 18-20 year olds in their top junior league, the most of anyone his age. According to Joshua Kloke's profile on Koblar in the Athletic, this is where he was recruited by Leksands' program in Sweden. As a 16 year old, he was 11th in points per game in Sweden's U18 level for his age group, and got his first taste of the U20 level in a much more competitive league. At the time, he was being used as a winger – in fact, I don't know if he had ever played at centre before.

In that profile I linked, Koblar's coaches and managers for Leksands talked about how he was intensely competitive – too much so, in fact. It manifested in him constantly trying to do everything himself, and not working within the team system as much. The choice was made to challenge him to play centre full time this season, and to harness that competitive nature more for team play than solo, selfish play. By all accounts, he got rave reviews for his progress in those areas. But I can still confirm his competitiveness – at the World U18s, any time he was on the ice for a goal against you could tell he was mad. A few times he smacked his stick on the ice or against the boards. Not a full baseball swing or anything, just a one handed smack out of frustration.

This year, Koblar played almost entirely as the 3C on the best team in the regular season. He was the second youngest player on the team to play most of the season on the U20 junior team. By the end of the season, his "third line" was being used more heavily, and he was getting all situations time – but, notably, not top unit roles on the power play or penalty kill. Leksands was incredibly stacked and deep with talent. He earned his time and his roles the hard way.

Koblar's point production this season doesn't seem incredibly inspiring. He had 8 goals and 21 points in 43 games, good for 9th on the team. He added 4 goals in 7 playoff games, which was 2nd most on the team in goals and 7th for points. For regulars his age who played most of the season at the U20 junior level, Koblar finished 38th in points per game. Even on the international stage, Koblar played in a combined 25 games for Norway's U18 and U20 teams, and he had 1 goal and 10 points. That is among the leaders for players his age, but almost always behind Mikkel Eriksen (drafted by Rangers in 4th round) and Niklas Aaram-Olsen who will be a top prospect in the 2026 NHL draft.

Now, I think there are some reasons to explain at least some of that. First, his relative youth – his July 21st birthday makes him one of the younger players in that league in his age group. Second, his role. I mentioned was a really good and deep team, and that he got only second unit PP time and was on the third line at even strength. If he played on a bad team, he'd be playing a lot more in all situations and more opportunity to put up points. Third, there's bad luck. You'll see in the highlights I clipped below how many close calls he or a teammate he set up had at the World U18s. He was a scoring chance generating machine on one of the weakest teams at the tournament in terms of roster strength. Fourth is what we'll get into when it comes to his flaws, but also his potential.

THE GOOD: SIZE, PHYSICAL PLAY, TWO-WAY POTENTIAL

When watching Koblar, the first thing you notice is the combination of his size, skating and physical play. He is not necessarily an elite skater, but is an above average one. He's also 6'3" (or 6'4" depending on what outlet you believe) and 190 lbs, and he looks big and imposing on the ice. He also knows how to use his size and strength to his advantage along the boards. He isn't a psycho goon, but he will crunch guys to good effect, especially defensively. What he is, as touched on above, is incredibly competitive. He's a battler, and definitely has "that dog in him". He will never shy away from contact or a tough battle on the boards or in front of the net, at either end. He has a lot of potential in these areas when he adds more strength and muscle.

You'll see a lot of highlights below, where Koblar on the defensive side of the puck will just smother opponents on the boards. He'll shut them down, stop them dead, and then either he himself or a teammate will puck up the loose puck to start moving it up the ice. With the puck, he shows flashes of high level puck protection. It's a bit Knies-like, but not nearly at his level. But I would absolutely love for the Leafs to send him Knies highlights isolating that skill and work with him to learn how to get defensemen on his back and then what to do to prevent them from knocking him off balance or knocking the puck away.

Here are some examples of his defensive play, forechecking, and physical play – there are a lot of highlights from the World U18s, including against top teams like Canada or Finland. He did a lot of heavy lifting to help a lot on defense and transport it out of their own end.

Another area Koblar already excels in is transitions. Both at Sweden's junior level, and for Norway in international games, Koblar on his line was one of the go-to guys for transporting the puck through the neutral zone. This part of his game isn't as refined or at as high of a level as his defensive and physical play, but it's still quite good. You can see him make some nifty moves with speed to evade waves of defenders, and then either pass or carry it into the offensive zone.

Koblar seems like a better puck handler in this area than as a passer, but he can make regular passes just fine. While he tries more difficult or high difficulty passes, his execution on them is inconsistent. His puck handling, meanwhile, has a higher degree of success even on more difficult attempts. While the consistency could still improve, it's further ahead than it is for his pass attempts. Here are some examples:

Then there's Koblar's offense. Honestly, I didn't keep this until the end because it is bad. But because it has the biggest question mark. This ties into what I mentioned as the fourth reason to explain his low point totals. In the highlights below, just from the World U18s I count 8 grade-A scoring chances he either had himself, or that he set up for a teammate. None of them resulted in goals. The goalies made great stops, the puck got deflected at the last second, or they just couldn't get it over/through the goalie. Some of that is luck, but I do think there is undeniably a skill issue – both for himself, but also his teammates that didn't bury the chances he created.

What this means to me, when it comes to Koblar himself, is that he is good enough to create – by himself and his own efforts – high quality scoring chances against top competition. What he's lacking is that final little bit of skill and execution to finish the job. It could be better positioning, routes and timing so he has better space or a better angle for his shot. It could be a better shot with a quicker, harder, and more accurate release. It could be better hands in tight so he can get the puck to a spot where he can lift it over the goalie or slide it around him. It could be better pass timing and locations so his teammate have that better space/angle for their shot attempt.

For me, Koblar is already quite good around the net, playing a power forward and a supporting role. He is a beast on the boards and always fights to retrieve loose pucks, or create turnovers when the defense gets possession to prevent them from getting it out. He is so close at reaching that next level to unlock greater offensive potential so he can convert more of the opportunities he was creating later in the year. I may have had more highlights from the World U18s, but that's because I had more game recordings shared from it than I did his Leksands game (side note, recycle bins permanently remove files after 30 days or whatever it is? Why not 60 or even 40 so I'd still have more of them to recover!). He had the same kind of scoring chance generation where he just wasn't converting on them as much as you'd like.

THE FLAWS: CONSISTENT OFFENSIVE EXECUTION

So I've already touched on some of his flaws above, but I'll spell it all out. The biggest problem Koblar needs to fix is his high level offensive execution. On his transitions, he can beat the initial layers of defense with nifty moves, only to skate it into the next wall and turn it over. What he's lacking is the consistent ability to chain together his skills and moves so he can make complete plays successfully. All those things I talked about are also true.

Jesper Ollas, Leksands' general manager for the U20 junior team, when talking to Joshua Kloke said he needs to improve the speed of his feet, his skating, and his hands for quick bursts and in tight spaces. And I agree with all of that. He can definitely hit high speeds, but isn't the quickest in short bursts when he needs it. And that stick handling in tight is something I mentioned above as well.

Aside from some other things I've also touched on that would make him even better if he improved, like his passing and his puck protection, there's only one other issue I think would help him a lot – and that's his shot. He scores mostly by being around the net. Putting in rebounds, deflections, taking tap in passes, things like that. But he also has so many good chances from medium distance, and if he could add any kind of a shot that can beat goalies at a higher percentage at that range he could be a pretty good goal scorer in the NHL. It doesn't even need to be an elite shot, he seems like he could have the ability to get shots off in good volume in that area around the net that it just needs to be good enough to turn into more goals to give him much better offensive projection.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

Here's what I think Koblar already is, and how I can already safely presume for his projection: a potential bottom six centre who can drive play, play a tough, physical, and grindy defensive game and get the puck up the ice at a good rate. He said he wants to get stronger and play even more physical, which is hilarious.

I definitely think Koblar can stick at centre, even though he only moved to that position full time this year. His competitiveness and wanting to be involved in everything helps him fit naturally in with the needs of the position. He does the little things well in terms of staying low to support the defensemen on the breakout. He constantly scans the ice to find his man and identify threats from late trailers or guys sneaking in from the point. His defensive instincts are very strong.

But the big question that will follow Koblar for the next few years will be how his offensive skill develops. Can he add a legitimate shot? Can he add those quick hands and feet in tight? Can he refine and improve his offensive execution to the point that those scoring chances he generates turn into actual goals at an acceptable rate for the NHL?

I think Koblar is so close to turning the corner in any number of those areas that I find it a lot easier to project him more safely to an NHL bottom six role. His ceiling, to me, is basically a solid third line centre who grinds out reliable defense at one end, and provides supporting skill and power in the dirty areas to score off rebounds and create chaos in front of the net. He is a pretty adequate replacement for Minten in that regard, with similar type of skills in terms of his defense and two way play, but different in how he achieves it.

But yeah, I can easily see Koblar becoming a fan favourite once he's in North America. You'll never doubt his effort or think he's emotionless or fine with losing. He'll make it known how much he cares and how hard he'll work to win, and how unhappy he'll be if he doesn't.

Thanks for reading!

I put a lot of work into my prospect articles here, both for the draft and Toronto's prospects. I do it as a fun hobby for me, and I'd probably do it in some capacity even if PPP completely ceased to exist. But if you like reading my work, some support would go a long way! I pay for a few streaming services (CHL, NCAA, USHL, the occasional TSN options for international tournaments that are broadcast) to be able to reliably watch these prospects in good quality streams. I also pay for some prospect-specific resources, such as tracking data and scouting reports from outlets like Elite Prospects, Future Considerations, McKeen's Hockey, The Athletic, and more.

Being able to get paid for this helps me dedicate more time and resources to it, rather than to second/third jobs. And whatever money I make here, a lot of I reinvest back into my prospect work through in those streaming and scouting services. Like I said, I'd be doing whatever I can afford for this anyway, so any financial help I get through this is greatly appreciated!