June 15 is the date set in the CBA for the first buyout window and for the first arbitration election period and so it marks the start of offseason.

Of course, the Stanley Cup Final gets in the way of this, and that series will go as late as June 14 for sure, and possibly to June 17, so the date is qualified with "or 48 hours after the SCF". Sometime between the 16th and the 19th will mark the official start of offseason.

Buyouts

The first buyout window, the main buyout period of offseason, runs to June 30. Buyouts are becoming more rare as most teams realize that just keeping the player or burying some of the cap hit in the AHL is better than loading up with dead cap space. There is no one on the Leafs who is even remotely likely to be bought out (and with Max Domi injured seriously I don't have to entertain those frankly absurd schemes to buy out his contract). The only interest the Leafs will have is in players who might become UFA after a buyout.

As an example of who can be expected to be available, everyone is very upfront that Brendan Gallagher has played his last game in Montréal. He has one year remaining at $6.5 million. He's obviously and publicly onboard with being traded, and the initial talk is that Vancouver is the natural landing spot, but no one has actually asked Ryan Johnson what he thinks about that.

If the Canadiens can't trade him, they could buy him out making him UFA on July 1. You don't get star players out of buyouts, you get players who were overpaid at the end of term contracts, but who might have something to offer on a cheaper deal.

The arbitration deadline is one the Leafs will be focused on.

Arbitration

The first arbitration election period is for teams and the deadline to file is 5 pm on June 15 (or 48 hours after the final game). Team elected arbitration is fairly rare, and electing it in the first window is a sign to the player that the team wants to play hardball on any contract. The player has to have a salary of $2,484,079 for the team to be allowed to elect arbitration in the first window. The player would get to pick the term, if applicable, if it goes all the way to arbitration.

The second arbitration election deadline for players is July 5, and for teams, they get another 24 hour window after that to elect arbitration. However, Qualifying Offers are due on June 29 at noon, so that can make arbitration rights moot after that point if the team does not issue a QO – the player automatically becomes a UFA on July 1. That might be the more likely scenario for Leafs players than arbitration.

The Leafs have three forwards who played in the NHL this past season who have arbitration rights:

  1. Nick Robertson
  2. Matias Maccelli
  3. Jacob Quillan

They also have some AHL-level players who would not elect arbitration because they would have no case to get more than the mandated amount. They could just accept their QO should they get them. The same is true of Quillan, so the decisions to be made are about the first two.

Maccelli has a very high salary heading into this offseason of $4.25 million, creating a QO of $4.11 million. There is no way the Leafs would elect arbitration because they would have to accept an award at least at 85% of that salary figure and it could be higher.

There seems very little likelihood the Leafs would issue him a QO either, so it seems like his path to re-signing is to negotiate a reasonable deal. Something under the 85% figure or $3.8 million or so for a few years might be reasonable as the rising cap is making that figure the norm for a peripheral middle-six player.

Nick Robertson is another story. With a QO of $1.825 million and 16 goals in 78 games played, he has an arbitration case if he wants to take that route. On the other hand, he turns 25 this fall and would likely want some security of term somewhere.

This feels like a situation where a trade is almost inevitable, but haven't we said that before? He would be much more likely to be movable now than at any time in the past, and his trade requests have always had an air about them of high hopes on his part that aren't reasonable. I don't think the Leafs are going to want to pay him what he'd accept on a medium-term deal, nor do I think they should. But we're flying blind right now guessing the direction the team will take.

In terms of other QOs, they're all AHLers right now, so the choice to issue QOs or not will be one of prospect management. There are three legacy RFAs who moved to Europe in Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Topi Niemelä and Roni Hirvonen. And aside from reports a month ago that Der-Arguchintsev wants to return to North America, there is really no reason to hang onto these players, but nothing is lost if a QO is issued to maintain rights.

At the draft, John Chayka said he had made no decisions on QOs, but we'll hear about those in time.

Offseason