Maple Leafs Prospect Report: Cooper Williams

When Williams was drafted by Toronto this past summer, I was neither under nor overwhelmed – I was merely whelmed, leaning a bit on the positive side. I knew he was a guy who had some late first-round consideration at the start of his draft year. But I also knew that his draft stock had slowly slipped all season as he failed to really look like he improved that much from his previous season, when he looked like one of the WHL's higher-tier prospects.

Williams was never someone I really watched, and he wasn't someone I had considered at all when making my final cuts for my pre-draft profiles. When I looked into him after the draft, you can read my full thoughts here:

Getting to Know Cooper Williams

He entered this season as a consensus first rounder, so why did he fall all the way to the fifth round and why did Toronto still draft him?

PPP LeafsBrian S

I saw a guy who had a good grasp of defensive details, good playmaking vision, and was surprisingly effective around the net in generating and finishing offensive chances. On the downside, I saw some more concerning issues regarding his size, his ability to withstand physical pressure, and both his skating and his low pace of play.

When it comes to the CHL, when I am formulating my first/new impressions of a player in any season, I've learned to wait until seeing at least 2-3 games after most of the drafted prospects are returned to their teams after being cut from NHL training camps. It's too easy for players to look better than they are because they're playing against mostly guys who are too young or not good enough to be drafted to the NHL.

Well, he's now 7 games into his draft+1 season. I wrote about my early impressions of Pepoy two weeks earlier after he had only played, I think, two games after all players were returned to their OHL teams. The reason why I waited two extra weeks for Williams is that I've had a much harder time forming any firm impressions about him. So let's get into that.

STATS AND CONTEXT

• Position: Left-shot center
• League(s): WHL
• Height: 6'1"
• Weight: 163 lbs
• Birthdate: Fen 18th, 2008
• Drafted: 158th overall (5th round)

The good news is that Williams has started the season on an absolute heater. He has points in all seven games that he's played, in fact, he has more games with multiple points than he does games with only one point. With 4 goals and 12 total points in 7 games, he's tied for 3rd in the entire WHL. His points-per-game pace is double what it was last season, which would make for a major offensive breakout if he maintains it over a full season – for the record, I don't think he will. At least, he will likely see his points-per-game pace finish higher than last year but lower than what it's at right now.

Some of what's helped Williams' production is his playing time. He is Saskatoon's top-line centre at even strength, playing with other offensive leaders, in fact, his wingers have 12 and 11 points respectively, so he isn't exactly the big offensive leader. They're also very close to each other in shots on net (24, 27, and Williams leading with 28). He also has a top power-play role, where 7 of his 12 points have come – that's second on the team behind their top defenceman Brayden Klimpke, who also has 12 points.

Now, the reason why I don't think Williams will maintain 1.71 points per game is mostly that it's just such a big jump... it's more a vibe I have than anything factual. Last year was his best for goals and tied for most points in his WHL career, and if his pace continued, he would go from 23 goals to 38 goals and from 57 points to 113.

To be fair to him, neither Williams nor his linemates have huge red flags like an absurd shooting percentage bender. Williams and one of his wingers are around 14-15%, and the other is at 25%, which is a bit high but not for junior. For Williams, his shooting percentage is only around 1% higher compared to last year and right around what it was the previous season. What's improved is his shot rate, from roughly 2.5 shots to 4 shots per game. Even their power play, which has been a bit hot to start the year, is actually middle of the road for the WHL so far (24.4%) compared to the top teams that are around 35-37%.

So it's not absurd to think that Williams and his line, between even-strength and power-play production, couldn't roughly maintain that pace over the year. I just think it will fall off a bit as the season goes on, from 1.71 to maybe somewhere in the 1.5 to 1.6 range.

THE EYE TEST

Now we get to why I have that vibe, and why I've been conflicted or having difficulty pinning down what I think of Williams so far this year. I'll start with the positive things that stand out that I am actually clear on.

I mentioned from his initial profile that he was good at defensive details, and that seems to have levelled up this year. In addition to being a top player at even strength and on the power play, he's also regularly used on the penalty kill – but not on the top unit.

One thing I think is a clear strength for Williams is his intelligence, and how that shows up in his positioning and anticipation. He can be highly disruptive to puck carriers and in creating havoc as the other team tries to break out of their own end and get it through the neutral zone. He gets his stick on pass attempts, pokes the puck away as they try to evade him, and stick lifts from behind to take it away and start a quick counterattack. He has created a good amount of scoring chances off his defensive plays, which you can see some examples of in these highlights:

I do think his defensive play has gotten even better than it was last year, especially when it comes to turning the defence into offence. His positioning I think is the best part of his game, even if I don't think his skating is great (more on that below) I do notice him as being a part of the play on both sides of the puck a lot more. He achieves that by just... being in the right areas of the ice at the right time. He moves to give the defence an easier pass to avoid forechecking pressure, while also giving himself more space once he receives the pass to make a play. Or he's in the right area of the ice defensively to harass the puck carrier and try and create a turnover. Or he's positioning himself smartly in front of the net, and timing his release from the defenceman he's battling with in front so he has the right angle and his stick free for a rebound, loose puck, backdoor pass, etc.

I have two main concerns with projecting Williams' defensive play to even the AHL, let alone the NHL, and they are the same concerns I mentioned originally – he is too small and needs more muscle and strength, and his skating needs to get better. Right now I would say that his skating overall looks average in the WHL, but that's only comparing him to other juniors. He can make defensive plays thanks to his positioning and anticipation, but he could become an elite defensive force if he could improve the quickness of his acceleration and the top gears he has for his straight-line speed. That would allow him to increase the frequency with which he can get on puck carriers and surprise them, jump into passing lanes for interceptions, and so on. I will say that his agility and edges look better so far this year, making him a lot more elusive.

The strength thing is just because he's so light and can't really impose himself physically, even on other junior players. He's more of a pure intelligence/stick defender right now. The concerning part is I don't think it looks like he's added any weight at all over the summer. When I wrote his profile after the draft, he was 163 lbs. And as of now, he's still listed as 163 lbs. Now, it's not unusual for height and weight to not be updated by junior teams, but I don't think he really looks any bigger or stronger when I watch him either.

Offensively, my overall impression is definitely that he hasn't suddenly become a leading offensive force in the WHL by his own individual skills and abilities. I would say he is more of a play driver than an offensive creator – that's the turning defence to offence thing, and helping tilt the ice for his team when it comes to possession time.

When Williams has the puck, he can flash some nifty mittens but only very rarely. He looks to make a pass more often, which he is pretty good at and has an above-average sense of looking for a better second option than just making simple passes that he sees first. His accuracy success rate for more complicated passes is good, but this is junior against junior defences, so I want to see that become more than just "good" against other teens. One specific kind of pass he seems quite good at is the outlet pass – starting a breakout by finding a winger up in the neutral zone who has a good path to entering the offensive zone with control. You can see some of the flashes of his skill and playmaking in these clips:

The other area that Williams is good at is his play around the net. He is good at quick one touch passes to catch the defence and goalies moving, but he's also good at finishing in close. All four of his goals this year have come from within the slot area – three were off tap ins from loose pucks and rebounds, and one was that slick dangles around the goalie where he tucked it in off the post. So while Williams does have a good shot rate and decent shooting percentage, a lot of his shots are higher danger than trying to snipe it from outside the hashmarks or faceoff dots.

I think what I'm most undecided about when it comes to forming a firm opinion on Williams to start this season is his offense, and how well it projects. On the one hand, it's clearly working for him so far. He's fitting in with his usual linemates at even strength and on the powerplay. Even if he isn't the guy driving the bus, it doesn't seem like anyone on the team is, it's all pretty even and done by committee in a sense. I think Williams does a lot of little things, and does the heavy lifting in getting his team to be on offense. When they're there, he can pitch in with smart passes and good finishing skill around the net. But none of this seems to be very high level, and his ability to play well around the net is concerning when I come back to the weight/strength issue.

So I think I'm still stuck in a bit of a wait and see stance with him. I think I may just be in the middle of watching him figure a lot of things out that are good, but they're all in ways that aren't easy to appreciate in a bigger picture. He's good and impactful without it being flashy or easy to notice. That, and I think my concerns about his strength and skating (which can be improved on by adding muscle) not showing noticeable improvements so far have me more worried about projecting him to professional levels. I've lived through watching prospects just never get better in those areas despite saying the same things about them for 5+ years... Topi Niemela ring a bell for anyone? Some guys just... don't ever actually get any stronger. So we'll have to see if that is the case for Williams or not.

To simplify things, I think Williams is showing improvements so far this year without there being any big breakout or huge leap in his development. And the things he's showing improvements on are nice, but he isn't showing any in two of the more important areas where he needs to get better.

Thanks for reading!

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