Maple Leafs Prospect Report: Tinus Luc Koblar's Pro Debut

One thing that I or Cathy has brought up about Koblar for this season is the expectation that he'll spend most if not all of this season in junior again. He was good there last year, but not so good that he seemed like an obvious choice to get a solid spot on the pro team's lineup.

So of course Koblar has now played in 7 straight games in the SHL for Leksands. Suffice to say, this is a lot earlier than I was guessing this would happen. It's been an exciting development in his progression, so I've watched at least some of all of his games in the SHL so far,

STATS & CONTEXT

Position: Center
League: SHL
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 190 lbs
Birth date: July 21, 2007

One thing to keep in mind is that, last season, Koblar didn't play a single minute in the SHL. He didn't even get one of those games where his junior team wasn't playing for a couple of weeks so the SHL team called him up to dress but stay on the bench all game without playing at all. While I really like him and see his potential, he is still a younger age even relative to most of his draft class, and it's not like he was a dominant player even in junior last year.

Seeing him already get real playing time in the SHL is huge. It suggests he's further ahead in his development than we had been expecting, and it started in the pre-season when he was in their lineup for multiple games. The team reportedly said some good things about him, and apparently it wasn't just to boost his confidence because after only a couple of games in junior, they called him up to the pros on September 25th and haven't taken him out of the lineup since.

In those 7 games, Koblar has played 10+ minutes in all but one – his very first game, when he played 9:56 and honestly there were so many powerplays for both teams in this game I think that's the only reason why he didn't get over 10. He has lined up on the third line every game, except his most recent one where he was on the "second" line in the starting lineup – I used quotes because he had the same linemates, they just got shown as the second line for that game for whatever reason.

More exciting is that his role is only increasing. In his first three games Koblar was used on the wing. He played 10 minutes each of those three games with no role on special teams. But for the four most recent games, he's been over 12 minutes – one over 16 minutes, one just under 14. In three of those four games, he was moved to play at center instead of the wing, which is a much bigger responsibility. Some of that increased playing time, maybe all of it actually, has come from him being used on the penalty kill at times.

Right before he got that bump in minutes, the move to the more important position, and more of a role on special teams, his team lost a close game but his coach had this to say about who he wanted to highlight (in a good way) from the game:

"Arvid's line is doing well. They are intense and work really hard," Olle praises the juniors Andro Kaderli and Tinus Luc Koblar and the slightly older Arvid Eljas.

So far, Koblar has one point – a goal he scored in his very first game. But his shot rate has been increasing with the increased ice time (shocker, I know). The one guy that has played on his line in all 7 games has one point in 11 SHL games, and that was in a game he played with Koblar. Of the four "older" players rotating through his line in the seven games, only one has more than one point so far this season and Koblar only played with him today (Saturday).

The purpose of Koblar's line has been what Cathy has described as what you want out of your depth – pitching in some points is great, but most importantly just finish your shift with the puck in the offensive zone so the big boys have a better chance of scoring. And, so far, Koblar's line has done that pretty well. Not to a dominant degree, but at least relative to the rest of the team.

All those stats and context aside, let's get into how I think he's looked to explain why it appears his SHL team has been so willing to play him in a slowly increasing role.

SCOUTING REPORT

There are two main reasons why I think Koblar has been as successful in his role in the SHL as he has been so far. I'll start with the biggest one.

Defense

The main reason why I think Koblar earned the love of the SHL coaches starting in pre-season is because he's built – mind and body – like a pro hockey player. He's smart, he's responsible, he has good attention to details, he knows where to be on the ice on any given time.

The one thing I'll say I noticed as a not so good element of his defense, is that he at times can be too passive. He may be in the right area of the ice to influence a play, but I've noticed a tendency to be flat footed in his own end, or when his man gets the puck he isn't closing as aggressively on him as he could. With the puck he's already shown he can bully some opponents, but I don't think he's gotten the confidence to shove, check, and smother puck carriers to stop their momentum and create more turnovers.

However, I am generally very pleased with Koblar's off puck play in the SHL so far. As a center, he plays back to cover for the defense, he knows where to be to serve as a safe outlet pass. All those little things that coaches want, but you don't see as often until you get past junior leagues and into the pro level.

Here's a good example of this.

Koblar's two wingers are deep behind the goal line, forechecking aggressively in the offensive zone. The defense of the other team work the puck past them, and rim it around to their winger. You see Koblar coming into the screen at this point – he's playing above the other team's center but mirroring his arc into and now out of the zone, so he's in position to defend in case he gets the breakout pass.

Koblar's defenseman is the one who pinches to try and block the other team's winger from being able to easily start the breakout. It forces the opponent to bank it off the boards to get it out of his end. Koblar has already begun skating back to cover for the pinching defenseman, and is in perfect position to take the loose puck before the other team can.

Here, Koblar makes maybe a small mistake. His pass to the other defenseman is not great – it's into his middle/skates, where it's awkward to receive. His passing accuracy in this regard should be improved in time. But, I'll also say that defenseman should have been able to get a stick or skate on it to still receive it, we're talking the pro level here.

Regardless, the joint mistake between Koblar and the defensemen sends them back into their own end with two opposing forwards bearing down on them. Koblar begins by skating towards the opposite corner of the puck, presumably to act as the outlet to his defenseman if he gets to it first and needs a quick outlet from the pressuring forechecker.

However, here Koblar makes a great read – and if you follow him you can see the moment when he makes the read and starts to change his direction. He sees ahead of time that the opponent could get to the puck first, and also sees that the other forward will be wide open in front of the net. So Koblar moves ahead of time to intercept, and his timing was perfect – he gets in front of the passing lane to knock it into the corner and to his teammate coming back to the boards.

His reading of the play, his positioning and anticipation were all perfect here. His one small mistake was an imperfectly placed pass. But twice in quick succession he put himself where he could easily prevent the other team from creating a clean breakout or scoring chance. This kind of thing is not an exception for him, it's very much the norm. Those little details are why his coaches love him, and why I love him to. It's a level of proactiveness without the puck that helps him have an impact on the play later on. It's a safety blanket for the rest of the team, being able to trust that he'll be there to back them up if they make an aggressive play or mess something up.

Transitions & Offense

Now, let's talk about Koblar's game with the puck. He did score the one goal, but doesn't have a point since then. So far, I'd say that his offensive utility is somewhat muted both from a combination of him playing a more conservative, responsible game mentioned above when he's a center – as a winger, he was more aggressive forechecking and typically playing deeper/further up the ice. His goal did come in a game he played on the wing, for what that's worth. I did also already note his linemates have not been of the offensively inclined variety so far.

Transition wise, Koblar is doing well. He can carry the puck up the ice when he has room, can get by single forecheckers or defensemen, and generally knows when to pass it when there's pressure he can't deal with. Some of his decision making in this area can be improved, but it's good enough to make him a generally reliable puck mover when it comes to transitions.

Offensively, he's also doing pretty well. I'd say this is where he needs the most work, but he's not awful despite only having the one point. Where he excels the most in the SHL when he has the puck is when he can use his size and strength to his advantage, which is mostly on the cycle. He can be a handful even when Playing Against Men at the pro level. It's a combination of his size and strength, but also being able to make quick cuts, absorb contact, and make some clever moves to get it off the boards and into the middle of the ice. I've seen him create a scoring chance for himself a couple of times, seen him set up a teammate for a good chance a couple of other times, and draw a penalty as a defenseman was forced to haul him down to the ice to stop him from getting to the net.

Here's a good example:

Koblar absorbs the quick contact, then makes quick cuts back and forth in a small area along the boards to keep the defender from being able to get at him physically or get his stick at the puck. Then he uses his defenseman curling around him into the offensive zone as bait to shed one defender, and give him an easier path to the middle of the ice for a decent mid-range shot and scoring chance.

Or, here's another example of him in the same area of the ice, but this time Koblar sees a passing lane to a teammate by the net for a much more dangerous scoring chance.

When it comes to his offensive execution, this is something I noted in his post-draft profile. It's also why I expected him to at least start the first chunk of the season in junior, where I was hoping he would have more playing time to learn how to execute more offensively skilled plays by trying things out in practices and real games.

Now, I'm not necessarily as worried. While Koblar is playing a bit conservative, likely because it's what his role calls for – especially when he's used as a center – he doesn't look like a complete offensive black hole. Whether it's in junior or the pros, I just really hope the Leafs' development staff are in communication with him, and he can work with Leksands' staff in practices, to develop this offensive game. I said before that his biggest opportunity to become more of a breakout offensive star is to work on executing higher level offensive plays with greater consistency and being able to chain together more than one skilled move so he doesn't beat one defender only to turn it over when dealing with the next. I think he has the mind for it already, so it's more a matter of practice and repetitions.

Two other areas for improvement I see that affects every area of Koblar's game, is his skating and strength on his feet. Neither are bad, but I think it would especially help him to add more muscle to his legs and core so he's more difficult to knock off balance, and to add greater explosiveness in his first 2-3 steps. He's already around the play so often because of his positioning and anticipation, but being able to get quicker in close areas would help him close on pucks and puck carriers, or pull away from defenders and create more space for himself.

None of Koblar's issues so far seem like major issues. The most concerning thing is if he'll ever develop more of an offensive game, but that's something that was always going to be a longer term project with time to improve. If we're 2-3 years on and he hasn't improved all that much, that's when I'll be more concerned. Otherwise, his strengths and his play style are very much ideal for a pro-style game. It's what has helped him find success so early in the SHL – even if he didn't look that dominant in junior, his game works even better in the pros. That's a great sign for his future development in my books!

Thanks for reading!

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