With the 86th overall pick, the Leafs select Tyler Hopkins

Tyler Hopkins was taken by the Leafs in the third round with the 86th overall pick.

So who is Hopkins? I'm somewhat familiar with him, but not as much as others. He played for Kingston in the OHL and did pretty well, had 20 goals and 51 points in 67 games mostly as a 2C or 3C it looks like. He also played for Team Canada at the Hlinka Gretzky and the World U18s.

Here's how Hopkins was ranked:

• Bob McKenzie—52nd
• Elite Prospects—61st
• Will Scouch—Unranked
• McKeen's—73rd
• FC Hockey—90th
• Dobber Prospects—86th
• NHL Central Scouting—52nd among North American skaters

My initial take on him, based on the bit I knew about him already and what I've now read looking up his scouting reports, is that he seems like a good depth forward swing for a late third round pick. He actually seems to have been ranked higher by a some scouts than where Toronto took him, by people I tend to trust (like Lauren Kelly with Elite Prospects who is their main OHL scout).

His strengths are what interest me: he's reportedly got very good skating, he's smart, he's versatile, he is an "advanced supporting player" who can kill penalties and play a solid bottom six depth role. Maybe more of a safe pick, but his tools are solid across the board – the big question is his offensive skill and instincts.

Scouting Reports

From Elite Prospects' draft guide:

Tyler Hopkins should be one of the highest certainty bets on the second day of the draft. Not only does he look like an NHLer, but he plays like a professional already.

His tools enable him to make plays both away and on the puck on defence. He’s patient in his approach, reloading above the play ahead of turnovers, surveying the ice, and jumping on opponents as they make themselves vulnerable. It’s the same on the forecheck, where he cuts passing lanes, methodically reduces the opposition’s space, and then closes on them, creating turnovers that his team can exploit.

A low and stable skating posture, combined with physical abilities, enables Hopkins to win battles for possession. He cuts through hands, seals the puck away, and escapes with it.

These tools also form the foundation of Hopkins’ offensive game. Constantly in movement, he distributes the puck effectively, hitting teammates as they get open across the ice, sometimes with deception. And he takes his opportunities to fire on the net. But mostly, he outraces and outbattles. He runs past defenders in the neutral zone, weaving through and attacking gaps as they form, and takes pucks off the wall.

“A high-event game from Hopkins, who forechecked heavily, set picks in open ice, won battles in the corners before emerging with the puck, and used his speed to push the pace of play,” wrote OHL regional scout Lauren Kelly in a March report. “He dodged pressure as the puck carrier before getting to space and shooting, or delivering passes across the crease to teammates backdoor.”

Hopkins’ playmaking could continue to develop as he matures and takes on bigger roles for the Kingston Frontenacs, pushing his upside to a top-nine NHL spot, but his most likely outcome remains a bottom-line role. He could become a highly effective penalty killer and pressure forward while contributing some offence.

From McKeen's Hockey:

The allure of Tyler Hopkins is that he’s currently a bit of a blank canvas. He has a lot of interesting tools, and he has shown an ability to play a lot of different roles; in a way he is a bit of a Swiss Army Knife. Coming into the OHL, he was billed as one of the most talented offensive players in his age group, which is why he was the fourth overall selection in the OHL Priority Selection. As an OHL player for Kingston, he’s become more of a change of pace, high energy playmaker, reliant mostly on his speed to make plays. When he has suited up for Canada internationally, he’s taken on a checking line role and killed penalties effectively. The question is, who is the real Tyler Hopkins and what kind of role does he project to play at the NHL level?

The key for Hopkins moving forward is to find that identity and lean into it. The first step would be to continue to bulk up and improve his strength, on and off the puck. He made huge gains in this department from his first OHL season to this past year, however, further growth is needed for him to be able to create consistent offense, especially through the middle of the ice. He also flashes a pest-like mentality that he would be smart to utilize more often; it would give him an edge as a versatile pro who can utilize his speed to be a nuisance. Hopkins also has to improve his shot, especially if he doesn’t end up sticking at center. He doesn’t get enough pucks on net and can struggle with his release under pressure.

All that said, and as mentioned, Hopkins’ skating ability, off puck awareness, and playmaking ability could end up making him a middle six NHL player who could be a valuable role player.

From Dobber Prospects:

June—Hopkins is a very straightforward player, though one who comes with plenty of tools. He finished the season with 20 goals (though none in 11 playoff games), largely off the strength of his shot and his open-ice abilities off the rush. He’s very fast, with a powerful, churning stride, making him effective as both a carrier and weak-side option, though his off-puck reads are hit-or-miss. His speed—in addition to his low skating base—also makes him both difficult to seperate from the puck and hard to play against in the corners.

Despite the tools, Hopkins likely doesn’t have enough creativity, deception or high-level processing to be much more than a straight-lines forward, even if it is as an effective one.

From Upside Hockey:

Tyler Hopkins (ranked # 52 NA Skaters, # 54 by McKenzie) has been a heavily scouted, and highly regarded player for many years, and was selected 4th-overall in the 2023 OHL Priority Selection by his current team, the Kingston Frontenacs, and he filled their second-line center spot this season. Hopkins was 6th on the Fronts in regular-season scoring, but only managed to produce 5 points in 11 post-season contests, which placed him 9th in playoff scoring for his team. Hopkins is a Gold-Medal winner, both in last summer's Hlinka (1 assist in 5 games), and the most recent U-18 Tournament (1 assist in 6 games), where he was tasked with mostly checking duties.

Built to be a center, he has blazing speed, skill, staunch two-way play, and the ability to contribute in all situations- although only 13 of his points came via the PP this season. Hopkins' best physical trait is his effortless skating on a long and powerful stride, coupled with top-flight agility; he accelerates to break-neck speed expeditiously, and easily wins races, sprints through transition, beats defensemen wide, sidesteps checks, and distances himself from pursuers in open-ice. His hands are quick enough to keep up with his feet, exhibiting high-end puck-skill in his smooth handling and tight control when in-flight. Carrying with poise and confidence, he exerts his well-honed protection skills, and can outmaneuver opponents with slick one-on-one stickhandling. Those same quick hands also give him a soft-touch on his passes, with sharp timing and good precision.

Hopkins has strong offensive awareness, spotless positioning, and plus-level hockey sense, and he creates scoring opportunities through his spatial awareness, and his ability to spot passing lanes; he can connect on some dynamic passes at times, from cross-ice feeds, to spotting teammates through the slot for high-danger looks. He is also a high-volume shooter with a nose for the net, and he will drive the crease for scoring chances, locate gaps in the slot to await the pass, plant himself in front of the goalie to pounce on loose pucks, or get his stick on a tip opportunity with his keen hand-eye coordination.

He attacks up the middle off the rush, and owns soft hands in-tight to deke goalies out of their jocks. He also displays a powerful one-timer that's hard to stop, and wields a deceptive release on his incisive wrister that can freeze goalies, with the accuracy to pop water-bottles. On the forecheck, Hopkins projects a daunting presence with overwhelming speed and pace that allows him to close-in on puck-carriers in a hurry- giving them little, or no time to execute a calculated play. He pursues the puck with velocity and vigor, snuffing breakouts, forcing mistakes, and causing turnovers. Always in-motion, and seemingly always around the puck, he plays with energy, insurmountable pace, and high-motor; he's competitive, always engaged, and supports the play in all three zones- working to always be a viable, and playable option for his teammates.

Hopkins is a stud on the PK, one of the best short-handed players in the entire OHL, and he performs well in a shut-down role, with sharp sense and anticipation as a defensive center, and the ability to process the play quickly. Implementing strong positioning and smart stick-placement, he disrupts plays with pokechecks, intercepts passes, and angles attackers out of danger areas- effectively taking away the middle from the opposition. He is highly engaged, finely detailed, and proactively aware- he identifies risks early, sticks to them like glue, and is there to stick-lift when the puck arrives. Seemingly everywhere in the zone all at once, he pressures opponents with his speed and pace, sprinting at puck-carriers and charging into battles to remove all time and space. In retrievals, he has displayed the ability to make smart plays to either clear the zone, or make quick, short passes for clean exits to kickstart the rush.

Hopkins is also entrusted by his coaches to take important faceoffs. In transition, he pushes a fervid pace through the neutral zone to push defenses back in order to open space for teammates, and often attacks up the middle to suck in pressure. Without the puck, he skates smart routes and controls his movements in order to stay open and playable for the give-and-go. The big knock against him is that he's not the most physical player, although he doesn't seem to shy away from the rough stuff, competes hard in battles, and will throw the odd hit. He would be more effective however, if he were to use his frame as leverage more often to engage physically, and to keep opposing defensemen off-balance. I have no doubt that Hopkins' game will translate to the NHL- it's just a question of where his ceiling is, and how much offense he'll be able to produce. Even if he doesn't develop his scoring, he's still a pretty safe pick with his shutdown game- he's looking like a future middle-six center in the pros, though. He reminds me a little of Matt Lombardi. 2nd-round all day.