Florida Panthers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
07:30 PM at Scotiabank Arena
Watch on: TNT, HBO MAX, SNO

The Leafs last game was away on January 3 against the New York Islanders, which Toronto lost by a score of 4-3 in overtime. The Leafs have a record of 19-15-7 for a 0.549 Points %.

The Florida Panthers last played at home on January 4 against the Colorado Avalanche. The Panthers won by a score of 2-1 in regulation, and their current league record is 22-16-3 for a 0.573 Points %.

Them

The Panthers and the Leafs are in the same boat, and neither is sure if it's sinking or if they should keep bailing. They both need to play at a pace of around .600 or more for the rest of the season to take playoff spots. What's the Panther's case for trying? I mean, other than two Cups.

The Panthers sit at 51% at five-on-five by Corsi or xG, so that's good, but not great. Bear in mind, one of the great teams is Ottawa, correlation is not destiny and all that.

Their power play is mediocre in Expected Goal rate and they score well under it, but their PK is excellent and they allow fewer goals than that excellence says they should.

Their team Save % is below average, and their shooting luck/skill is not very impressive either, which just means they need to have the puck more so they can shoot more to score goals.

I'm about due for a rant on why PDO is a stupid name, a bad thing to ever discuss and is not a measure of luck, but the aspect of that absurd number that is more skill based at the team level is Save %. Shooting %, who the hell knows. You add up the values of a bunch of guys and what you have is a mud pie of no meaning. It's a "stat" you can assign a narrative to. Once again, you need to know the question a measure answers and you need to know why you want that answer. You don't start with the number and assign it meaning. If you're question is: Is this team lucky or good, PDO has no answer for you.

Okay. Panthers: Don't figure your power play will beat them. They can win at five-on-five only if you let them.

Lines

Last Game (2026-01-04) via Daily Faceoff

Eetu Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe - Sam Bennett - Brad Marchand
Mackie Samoskevich - Evan Rodrigues - A.J. Greer
Jesper Boqvist - Luke Kunin - Jack Studnicka

Gustav Forsling - Aaron Ekblad
Niko Mikkola - Uvis Balinskis
Donovan Sebrango - Jeff Petry

Sergei Bobrovsky - likely
Daniil Trasov

Us

The injury report is in the FTB today, so not repeating it here.

Brandon Carlo is back, so someone is coming off the active roster via IR or being sent down. There are many options available.

No Nylander, and yesterday's practice looks like the setup for tonight.

Lines

David Alter via Daily Faceoff from yesterday.

Bobby McMann - Auston Matthews - Max Domi
Matias Maccelli - John Tavares - Matthew Knies
Easton Cowan - Nicolas Roy - Nicholas Robertson
Steven Lorentz - Scott Laughton - Calle Järnkrok

Morgan Rielly - Brandon Carlo
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Troy Stecher
Simon Benoit - Philippe Myers

Joe Woll - likely
Dennis Hildeby

The Game

You never know with this game, but it looks like this needs to be a five-on-five win.

Game Coverage