Everyone is perpetually dissatisfied with the players the Leafs acquire. A lot of people are playing that game where they're worried about how they'll be dissatisfied later when the Leafs get someone. Which is a plan to be unhappy in my book. This sort of thing is very often a case of unreasonable expectations.
If you look back to when Mats Sundin was the 1C on the Leafs, the other centres in the NHL were big shots. Crosby, Malkin, Iginla, Datsyuk, Thornton, Zetterberg, Lecavalier, Spezza, Sedin, Getzlaf. Hall of Famers, some of them. Some of them, like Anze Kopitar, who had 32 goals in 2007-2008 are still in the game.
The thing is, you've had years to filter out the fact the top Cs in that year also included Mike Ribeiro, Derek Roy and Ollie Jokinen. The image you have in your mind is that a top centre is elite, and a 2C is too on a good team. The 3C is a very, very good player. And you know, maybe in 1988 that was true when there were only 21 teams, but it's not true now.
The NHL expanded successfully by importing European players, and they've kept at it recently by increasing number of Americans, but the pool isn't endless, and the elite players are few in number. If you watched Bob McKenzie's draft show, you heard a lot of prospects in the top 10 projecting at second-line centres. There aren't usually five or six of these guys every year, and they do require a very high pick. There aren't 64 very good to elite centres in the NHL every year.
This is the top three centres as listed by Daily Faceoff now, with all current unsigned UFAs (but not RFAs) removed. I did not research each team for injuries, however. This is what a 1C, a 2C or a 3C looks like.
Anaheim Ducks
Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras Ryan Poehling
Boston Bruins
Pavel Zacha, Elias Lindholm, Casey Mittelstadt
Buffalo Sabres
Josh Norris, Ryan McLeod, Jiri Kulich
Calgary Flames
Nazem Kadri, Mikael Backlund, Morgan Frost
Carolina Hurricanes
Sebastian Aho, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Staal
Chicago Blackhawks
Frank Nazar, Jason Dickinson, Oliver Moore
Colorado Avalanche
Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle
Columbus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger
Dallas Stars
Roope Hintz, Wyatt Johnston, Sam Steel
Detroit Red Wings
Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, J.T. Compher
Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Adam Henrique
Florida Panthers
Alex Barkov, Anton Lundell, ???
Los Angeles Kings
Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, Phillip Danault
Minnesota Wild
Marco Rossi, Joel Eriksson Ek, Ryan Hartman
Montréal Canadiens
Nick Suzuki, Jake Evans, Kirby Dach
Nashville Predators
Steven Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly, Fedor Svechkov
New Jersey Devils
Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Cody Glass*
*not going to be QO'd
New York Islanders
Bo Horvat, Calum Ritchie, Jean-Gabriel Pageau
New York Rangers
Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad
Ottawa Senators
Tim Stützle, Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto
Philadelphia Flyers
Sean Couturier, Noah Cates, Ryan Poehling Trevor Zegras
Pittsburgh Penguins
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak
San Jose Sharks
Maklin Celebrini, Alex Wennberg, Thomas Bordeleau
St. Louis Blues
Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn, Oskar Sundqvist
Seattle Kraken
Matty Beniers, Chandler Stephenson, Shane Wright
Tampa Bay Lightning
Brayden Point, Nick Paul, Yanni Gourde
Toronto Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews, Max Domi, Scott Laughton
Utah Mammoth
Barrett Hayton, Logan Cooley, Jack McBain
Vancouver Canucks
Elias Pettersson, Filip Chytil, Teddy Blueger
Vegas Golden Knights
Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson
Washington Capitals
Dylan Strome, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Hendrix LaPierre
Winnipeg Jets
Mark Sheifele, Jonathan Toews, Vladislav Namestnikov
UFAs in order by points:
- John Tavares
- Mikael Granlund
- Sam Bennett
- Pius Suter
- Jack Roslovic
- Jeff Skinner (in theory, he's been a winger a lot more)
- Gustav Nyquist (he may primarily play wing, I don't know)
- Andrew Mangiapane
- Adam Gaudette
- Lars Eller
- And some other marginal choices
Almost none of those centres still on teams are available in trade because almost no team wants to tank, and if you don't like the replacement options, why would they? When Luke Fox called John Tavares the runaway best centre available, he was not wrong. And looking over that list, some of the contracts that seemed wild overpays – Brock Nelson and Chandler Stephenson come to mind – make more sense now.
The only possible young acquisition is Marco Rossi, and how can the Leafs trade for his rights? With what? A signed Mitch Marner game-worn jersey? The only other obvious surplus guy is Charlie Coyle.
John Tavares looks like a must-sign this summer. He is absolutely a 2C. Even as he declines in ability. He's got a long way to fall before he's a 3C on most teams.
For whatever reason – maybe young players want the points you get on the wing, maybe they like the less structured game, there seems to be less centre depth overall, even if the top of this year's draft argues otherwise. Maybe it's that we look back and remember the top 10% and forget about all the duds that studded teams back in the day and it's always been like this.
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