The Toronto Maple Leafs are facing the Colorado Avalanche, and will be without Mitch Marner and Ondrej Kase. The Avs have been one of the top teams and are on an 8-1-1 hot streak, so this should serve as a good measuring stick game for the Leafs.



Early on, I can say with confidence that the Leafs having their fourth line made up of 23 Taxi Squad call ups against the Avs top players like Cale Makar is a terrifying thing. Campbell has had to be very sharp.

BUT YOU KNOW WHO ELSE IS SCARY? THE TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS LED BY ALEXANDER J. KERFOOT! 1-0 LEAFS! TORONTO WON THE KERFOOT TRADE! That was the Leafs’ first shot on net this game lol. What a pass by Bunting too.

That’s seemed to get the Leafs going a bit, even that aforementioned 23 Taxi Squad line.



Leafs have caught up in shots on goal after starting the period being outshot 8-0, and they have a 3-0 lead, and chased Kuemper to the bench.

Avs get one back thanks to MacKinnon coming in as the trailer and having a wide open shot in the slot. 3-1 Leafs.

Matthews is on a mission... almost gets a hat trick in the first period alone.

First Period Thoughts:

  • Shot attempts: Leafs were getting killed early, but survived and finished the period leading in shot attempts 22 to 19 at even strength. They had a dominant stretch in the middle of the period.
  • Expected goals: They also finished with 56% of the expected goal share, in large part because of the Matthews line.
  • Special teams: They killed off the one penalty they took, so... that was great!
  • Standouts: Jack Campbell for surviving the initial push by the Avs, then Kerfoot and Matthews for going on a rampage.
  • Heatmap: /



Genuinely happy for Ritchie though. I know he hasn’t been the most popular, and I’d also say he makes too much to be the Leafs 13th forward on a fully healthy lineup — and I think that’s what he is at this point. But I also don’t think he’s been as bad as some people think.

Avs follow that goal with some relentless pressure. A neutral zone turnover by Mikheyev led to a long shift being hemmed in the Leafs’ end, and Jack had to make a nice kick save to save the Buds’ bitts.

Leafs had a real good chance on the next faceoff, with Nylander getting sprung on the breakaway.

Auston Matthews is a god damned wizard and cannot be stopped.

Willy doesn’t have the points tonight but he’s been on a mission of his own.

Cale Makar is scary, man. Leafs had a chance to get it out and failed, and the Avs made them pay after some scrambly play by the Leafs. 4-2 Leafs.

Leafs are still getting their chances, but so are the Avs at this point. They finish the period on the penalty kill in a butt-clenchingly tense siege.

Second Period Thoughts:

  • Shot attempts: The Avs had the edge that period 16-11 in shot attempts at even strength.
  • Expected goals: NST appears borked for the time being, as they show the Leafs at 0 xGF and the Avs at not much more than 0. If I don’t update this, it’s because NST didn’t fix itself by the end of the game.
  • Special teams: They had the powerplay goal and killed off the first part of their late penalty, so that’s a success! The first PP unit looked kinda ass though, outside the first 5 seconds.
  • Standouts: Matthews again, Nylander and Tavares some more, and I’ll give a callout to Wayne Simmonds for drawing the penalty that led to the PP goal, and directly setting up Ritchie for it.
  • Heatmap: /


The Leafs start the period by killing off the remainder of the penalty, but you wouldn’t know they were even strength for another... all of the minutes so far, as the Avs are really pushing hard for a goal. Sandin saved a goal clearing it away from a down Campbell as the back just sat on his pad on the goal line.

Leafs finally get a good shift going thanks to — you guessed it! — Matthews, Bunting and Kerfoot. Nick Ritchie had a good chance not long after.

Brodie hauled down MacKinnon so the Leafs are back to the penalty kill for some more butt-clenching fun. HOLY SHIT JACK CAMPBELL WITH THE RIDICULOUS SAVE TO PRESERVE THE TWO GOAL LEAD! THANK YOU JACK!

Unfortunately, as these things always seem to go, the Avs keep the pressure up and score right after that amazing goal. 4-3 Leafs half the period to play still. Leafs in full turtle mode.

And, well, at least they didn’t draw out the tension of “will they tie it up?” for the whole period. Compher scores off a great no-look between the legs pass behind the net by Rantanen that caught Campbell looking the wrong way. Tie game 4-4 and... sigh... “it was 4-1”.

Leafs go to a PK again after just an absolutely stupid penalty by Ritchie. If they get scored on here I take back any sympathy I offered for him before.

And it goes to a 4 on 3 right after when Brodie collides with an Avs player and they both go off, though on the replay it looks like all Brodie did was... get cross checked to the ice?

The Leafs kill off the penalty and we’re going to overtime. Avs score to win it 5-4.

Final Thoughts:

NST is borked and isn’t fixed by the time I needed to write my final thoughts, so I’ll just add general ones. All of the big boys for the Leafs came to play, even though the Matthews line did all the actual goal scoring, I thought the Tavares line was also strong.

What killed them was trying to do their “defensive” hockey to hold the lead in the third period — aka the Turtle — against a team like the Avs who were just relentless with chances and skill, and they tied it up.

If you consider the Leafs on the road and without two of their better forwards building a lead with some dominant play, and finishing with a close result against a team like the Avs... it’s about what I would have guessed for the final result.