The Leafs are running back the same forwards and Sandin swapping in again for Dermott. A win advances them to the second round to face the Jets.

Let’s do this.


Both teams get good chances early:

GOAL: Joel Armia capitalizes on a defensive zone turnover. 1-0 Montreal.

GOAL: Armia puts in the rebound off a scramble. 2-0 Montreal.

Win it for John, you buttheads!

Frig off Carey, let Willy keep up his goal scoring streak!

First Period Thoughts

  • Offense: Not bad overall. They had some good chances, focused more on quality than quantity, and they did get stronger as the period wore on. They seemed to try and force things to start with. They had 15 shot attempts, 8 which were high danger, but finished tied in expected goals.
  • Defense: Not great. Defensive zone turnovers, mad scrambles with a lot of watching and not much doing. The two goals they gave up were good chances by the Habs, but after that they did manage to not give up dangerous chances against. They gave up 21 shot attempts but only two high danger ones.
  • Special teams: No penalties for either side.
  • Standouts: The Matthews line looked dangerous all period, Simmonds had a great chance before the first Habs goal, and a bit up and down but Willy had that great chance at the end of the period.
  • Heatmap:/


Leafs have dominated the second period this series, and Kerfoot starts it with a good chance on a 2 on 1. They’re getting their chances...

GOAL: Kotkaniemi capitalizes on another Sandin turnover and firesale in front of the Leafs net. 3-0 Montreal.

GOAL: Leafs create a scramble in front of Montreal’s net for a change, Hyman pots the juicy rebound. 3-1 Montreal.

Nylander has had all kinds of great chances, or set them up for a teammate. He wants to continue his goal scoring streak.

Second Period Thoughts

  • Offense: It wasn’t as good a period offensively, but only by a little. They had fewer shot attempts (14) and high danger chances (3), but they did at least finally have a goal to show for it.
  • Defense: They did a much better job, though score effects undoubtedly played a role. They held Montreal to fewer shot attempts (14) and half as much in expected goals, and held a 59% overall advantage in expected goal share.
  • Special teams: They were perfect on the PK, but I don’t know how much to credit the Leafs or how much to credit the Habs’ powerplay being so bad.
  • Standouts: William Nylander has been buzzing around all game. He’s flying through the neutral zone and had some great chances. The Leader for the Leafs at 5v5 though has been the Rielly-Brodie pairing, and the Matthews-Marner-Hyman line.
  • Heatmap:/


Hyman starts the period with a breakaway. He should have stopped and created a scramble in front instead, which is his bread and butter.

GOAL: Muzzin scores right after the powerplay expires. 3-2 Montreal.


Leafs still pressing for the winning goal late...

I SCREAMED at the screen...

  • /


GOAL: Letting Suzuki and Caufield have a 2 on 0 is generally a bad idea. Montreal wins 4-3 in overtime.

First Overtime/Final Thoughts

  • Offense: As you’d expect from a third period where the Leafs are trailing, they turned it up offensively. The Habs turtled. The Leafs therefore got some great chances. They had more expected goals for in the third than the previous two periods, and had two goals to show for it. Great effort all around. They had 17 shot attempts and 1.06 in xGF.
  • Defense: Again, as you’d expect the Habs tried to hold onto the lead and didn’t push for much offense. They had far fewer shot attempts (9) and expected goals (0.44) until the Leafs tied it up. Shame they blew it on the winning overtime goal.
  • Special teams: The Leafs finally had a powerplay and while they didn’t score, it looked pretty good. Except for Keefe playing Thornton on PP1 instead of Willy for some reason. They did score right after their powerplay ended too.
  • Standouts: Willy was still great. Muzzin led the way with the two goals. Galch was flying and had a good shot/feed for the tying goal.
  • Heatmap:/