2026 NHL Draft: Trading for Picks AND Players

In Monday's post from this week, I talked about what it could realistically look like if Toronto were to trade down from their first overall pick. I hinted that while it was difficult to envision a trade down from first overall for just picks because of the huge difference in value, it is possible to make up some of that difference by including NHL players and prospects already drafted.

Yesterday I talked about how Toronto could acquire more picks using the players they have on the roster who they seem to want to trade already anyway. And we've already seen them get one other pick through the Woll deal.

Today I'm going to kind of combine the two of those together and talk about other trade possibilities that could happen at the draft. They could technically happen after the draft too, but with all the pick value they have (PuckPedia rates them with the highest pick value in the draft as of the day they got the other third rounder from Philly) there are more assets at play that could help it happen.

Because these are all more swing for the fences kinds of trades, you can basically consider them to involve the Leafs using one of their two biggest assets to make these deals (maybe some other smaller ones): either the first overall pick, or Matthew Knies.

The principle with either scenario is the same. Both the pick and Knies are young and will be providing some level of impact on the Leafs next year if they're not traded away. They can be kept and still be good and valuable now and for the long term. The only reason you should trade either of them is if a team absolutely knocks your socks off with an overpay. That's how you get a home run trade to help the Leafs now and in the future. Otherwise, you just hang onto them and you're still happy to have them. You also still have time to trade them later even if you don't get a good enough offer right now (that's more for Knies than McKenna).

Trades Involving the First Overall Pick

Vancouver Canucks

With Vancouver, I see this as more of an opportunity to do a trade down from 1st overall with other assets coming back from the Canucks to bridge the gap in the pick values. At the state of their team/rebuild, they won't want Knies. If Vancouver is indeed acting more desperate for that star prospect, and Toronto wants something that offers more immediate value than picks for a prospect that may not be ready for another 2+ years, then I would say Toronto can ask for assets that fit that bill.

That would mainly be young star prospects who already have some NHL experience or at least close to making that jump. That would include the following:

• Zeev Buium
• Tom Willander
• Braeden Cootes
• Jonathan Lekkerimaki
• Elias Pettersson 2.0 (the younger defenseman)
• Victor Mancini

To make this a real home-run trade for the Leafs, they'd want one Buium or Willander. Both were high draft picks, both have been top defense prospects, and both have played most of a season in the NHL last year. Their results haven't looked great yet, but they're still young and were on a baaaaaaaaaaaad team as they were trying to break into the NHL.

The rest of the assets are not as close to the NHL and/or not as good as prospects, but they are good enough to maybe take the place of a later first/second round pick for the trade down. I think Vancouver will be very hesitant to trade Buium especially, since he was the primary piece they just got in the Quinn Hughes trade. But that's definitely what I'd push for if Vancouver really wants to trade up to first overall. Swing for the fences, not a bunt single.

New York Rangers

The Rangers would be another candidate more for a trade down that could bring back some NHL level help immediately. Like Vancouver, if they're starting a rebuild they probably want the first overall pick more than Knies. Aside from the 5th overall pick, there are three players that have been put on various trade boards by insiders:

• Adam Fox
• Vincent Trochek
• Alexis Lafreniere

Adam Fox would be the home run trade return, but there's very good reason to think that even if Toronto and New York found a framework they each liked enough to seal the deal, that Fox wouldn't want to play here considering the lengths he went as a prospect to not sign his ELC with any team but the Rangers. He likely wants to stay close to home on the east coast but also still in the USA.

Cathy recently talked about Trochek, which is worth a read to get an idea for how good he'd be as a trade target for the leafs:

Vincent Trocheck - the non UFA option for the Leafs

And several other teams as well.

PPP LeafsCathy Squires

The other is Lafreniere, who is a lot less interesting as a player to get back aside from potential depth given he has a Knies-like contract.

To replace the value of other picks outside of their 5th overall, they have four prospects who are 2+ years after being drafted and closer to the NHL, and while they're not top prospects necessarily they're in or close to that next tier:

• Scott Morrow
• Liam Greentree
• Jacob Battaglia
• Nathan Aspinall

Seattle Kraken

Seattle I mentioned as a team that I think is arguably the most desperate for a true star. They're the island of misfit very good players without any star power. They're not good enough to make the playoffs every year but not bad enough to tank for top picks. They have an interesting foundation of supporting players but that's it.

This is not based on any rumour I've seen directly linking to the Leafs, but I have seen rumours that they have considered dangling the likes of Shane Wright or Vince Dunn. Others as well, but they're the two that interest me to go along with their 7th overall pick.

Wright is semi-infamous as the guy who did NOT get taken first overall and has not really had a breakout year in the NHL yet. He does have a year with decent production but also good defensive metrics, apparently, so he could make for an interesting 3C candidate who could maybe still finally have a late breakout and become their 2C. That would make for a pretty great return to go with another high pick.

Dunn is on the older side at 29, but he's a solid veteran who could fill the need for good puck movers and PP quarterback. Why not try and get all three!

If you want to shoot for younger prospects who are closer to the NHL but not quite there yet, there's guys like:

• Julius Miettinen
• Oscar Fisker Molgaard
• Jagger Firkus
• Blake Fiddler

St Louis Blues

The Blues are perhaps one of the most interesting teams that have been connected to the Leafs in rumours that I've seen, because they could go for either the first overall pick or Knies. They were connected to Knies at the recent deadline, but nothing was ever revealed about what the return could have involved. Based on more recent rumours I think they'd be more likely to want the first overall pick but that's just me guessing.

They have three first round picks: 11th, 15th, and 29th overall.

They also have a new GM and may be entertaining a rebuild who were rumoured to be shopping some star young players like Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas. More recent reports have said they've pulled those two off the market, but that could just be what they're saying to drive up the asking price.

If the Leafs wanted to lure a star top winger or top young center, both on long term deals that are relatively low and both with some two-way accumen, they would immediately make the Leafs a better, deeper team with a star forward.

If they're trading down from first overall and want additional value outside of their picks, there's the likes of:

• Matthew Kessel
• Lukas Fischer
• Adam Jiricek

Trades Involving Matthew Knies

Yesterday I published an article that had a lot of trade ideas around Knies, but it was mostly focused on getting back other picks or young prospects with no NHL experience yet. Now I'm going to focus on rumours involving teams who are potentially offering NHL players who are already stars, even if they are also offering picks.

Nashville Predators

I haven't seen any rumours directly linking the Leafs and Nashville in any trade, let alone for Knies. But I have seen insiders talk about how they are not looking to rebuild, they want to retool and make trades that make them better in the NHL right now to add to their core of Josi, Forsberg, and Saros before the other guys they have around them are too old. That does sound like they would at least kick tires on Knies if they're hearing he's potentially available.

Aside from the 10th overall pick, they don't have a lot of young NHL assets, especially on defense. They do have Fyodor Svechkov as a young center who's been in the NHL the past two years, but they do have a lot of interesting and pretty high level prospects like Brady Martin, Felix Nilsson, David Edstrom, Tanner Molendyk, Ryker Lee and Egor Surin.

Martin was drafted 5th overall just last year so he's both further from the NHL and a high enough pick they may not want to trade him, but he's a Knies-like player stylistically but smaller and also a center. Ryker Lee is also a pick from last year so not right on the cusp of being an NHLer, except he's so good and had a great freshman season in the NCAA last year so he could be a guy who jumps to the NHL after this coming season in his D+2 year like Knies did.

Surin is a big Russian center who drafted two years ago in the first round, who has played the last two years in the KHL, making big improvements this year. He'd be interesting if he's willing to come to North America soon. The one top defense prospect they have who already has some pro experience, just not in the NHL, is Tanner Molendyk who was also a former first rounder.

The others I mentioned aren't as high end, but I still find interesting as potential guys to include instead of other, lower draft picks than 10th overall.

New Jersey Devils

Along with St Louis, this may be the most interesting possibility. This is another case where there's no current rumour (that I know of anyway) that directly connects the Leafs with New Jersey. But there have been rumours, independent of each other, that the Devils are also looking to "aggressively retool" the team and may need to cut some salary to free up space to get those same kinds of young NHL players.

Knies going back to New Jersey makes more sense than the first overall pick for two reasons. First, as I said the Devils are retooling not rebuilding, they want players now. Second, the reason why no trade happened last year is because every team needed NJ to retain a lot of salary and they didn't want to do that, meanwhile Knies' cap hit is close enough to Hamilton's that they may not need to retain much if at all.

Aside from the 12th overall pick, the big piece they are reportedly considering to trade is Dougie Hamilton. Now, Hamilton is probably the oldest player I'll mention as a trade target on this list. He has two years remaining on his contract with a $9 million cap hit. They were reported to be shopping him last year already and Toronto's name did come up at the time, but nothing came of it. Now they have a new GM, who is apparently analytically savvy, so he may see that Hamilton was actually quite good by the end of last year in terms of both points but also his play driving metrics. He is 33 now (as of June 17th), but he has size, he is a mobile defenseman, he can move the puck, he can quarterback a powerplay, he'd be a very good option for the next two years for the Leafs to try and compete right away.

The Devils have also been rumoured to be shopping Dawson Mercer, a young player coming off a contract with a $4 million cap hit after this coming season but will be an RFA. He's just 24 and has been in the NHL full time for the past five years. He's topped 20 goals three times, he's been a pretty constant 40+ point producer in that time. On the other side, he's apparently pretty solid defensively too. This past season, his defensive Goals Above Replacement (GAR)—which factors in even-strength defense and short-handed play—ranked in the league's 86th percentile. He isn't the best play driver, being more a passenger to get into the offensive zone and finish off plays, and he may be better suited to the wing than a center, but he could be an adequate replacement for Knies as a supporting winger with Matthews and McKenna as a result.

The other guy who could be interesting is Simon Nemec, who reportedly asked for a trade. He was a former 2nd overall pick back in 2022, he's 22 years old, he's got decent size and is a good skater but he just hasn't had the expected impact or breakout in the NHL yet. He did have his best season last year, scoring 11 goals and 26 points in 68 games. He plays a riskier style of game and can have frustrating turnovers, and has been blocked on the depth chart by Hamilton and their other top young RHD prospect in Luke Hughes. On the one hand, if they trade Hamilton that does free up some salary and a spot on the depth chart for a younger, relatively cost controlled defenseman, on the other hand Nemec may still want out even if he walked it back after a while, and if that's what Toronto insists on to make the deal happen it would free up more money for them to try and get another forward which they apparently want to shore up on. For Toronto, it would be a right shot offensive/puck moving defenseman for the long term.

Washington Capitals

The only other team I could see making sense from the rumours I've seen is Washington. They're trying to stay competitive during the twilight of Ovechkin's career. Like New Jersey or Nashville, I haven't seen any direct rumours linking Washington with Toronto but they are also in that "retooling" phase and there have also been some rumours of their young(ish) NHL players who could be traded that makes me think they'd be an interesting fit with the Leafs in a Knies trade.

So they have the 16th and 18th overall picks they are reportedly trying to use to acquire an NHL forward.

Curiously, I have seen two surprising names popup as players they have been thinking of shopping as well. The first is Dylan Strome, whose name was linked with Montreal at the trade deadline last year. Apparently there's been some questions about Strome sticking in Washington in the long term. They also have a bunch of young center prospects coming in Lapierre and Protas and may want to use Strome to upgrade on the wing while he has more value. Still seems weird to me, but if that rumour is real then Strome is 29 years old as of this past March, and has two years remaining on a pretty team-friendly deal at a $5 million cap hit. He's a regular 20+ goal scorer, and 60ish point who's been the center for Ovechkin in his time with Washington. He'd be a good get for Toronto's 2C, especially if he can be extended for not too much. Apparently the

The other guy who was in some trade rumours last year but got pulled off that after suffering a serious knee injury ended his season is Rasmus Sandin. This one isn't too surprising, since Washington already has Chychrun and Fehervary ahead of him on the left side, plus Cole Hutson just went pro for them and had 10 points in 14 NHL games while also being an undersized defenseman. Good reason to think they'd trade Sandin as a surplus. His knee injury will reportedly keep him out until around January, but he's on a good contract a ta $4.6 million cap hit for the next three seasons.

Knies for the two of them plus one of those two mid-first round picks would give them a 2C and a solid middle pairing defenseman who can move the puck well, plus a pick for the future. That's not bad value either, if Washington would go for it. They do like their big beefy power forwards like Tom Wilson and Ryan Leonard.

So those are all the ones I saw some kind of rumours about where I could realistically see something there, if both Toronto and the other team wanted it. I'm not saying any trade is likely, or that they should make any trade involving Knies or their first overall pick. But if it's going to happen, that's how I think Chayka could approach it in terms of what assets he could ask in return.

Thanks for reading!

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