The Maple Leafs want to remodel the team over the next few weeks. Picking someone with the first overall pick in the draft is the easy part. All the rest is difficult.

NHL Roster and Cap Hit

The players under contract and likely to play in the NHL:

  1. Auston Matthews - $13.250,000
  2. Willian Nylander - 11,500,000
  3. Matthew Knies - 7,750,000
  4. John Tavares - 4,389,280
  5. Dakota Joshua - 3,250,000
  6. Steven Lorentz - 1,350,000
  7. Easton Cowan - 900,000
  8. Morgan Rielly - 7,500,000
  9. Jake McCabe - 4,513,102
  10. Chris Tanev - 4,500,000
  11. Oliver Ekman-Larsson - 3,500,000
  12. Brandon Carlo - 3,485,000
  13. Anthony Stolarz - 3,750,000

I've made some guesses here about injury status. Chris Tanev will likely be ready, and Max Domi will likely be on LTIR. That's seven forwards, six defenders and one goalie. A structure that is leading many to think the Leafs won't look to acquire a defender in trade, but I don't think that assumption is valid. They will look for defence as well as filling out the bottom of their forward corps and attempting to improve the top.

With the trade yesterday the goalie picture seems clear, but Samuel Ersson is not currently under contract.

They may do some of that filling out of the depth forwards from AHL players under contract but no one who played at the end of last season really made an iron-clad case for an NHL job, although most of them are under contract for less than $1 million. The Leafs were, after all, extremely bad with those interesting young players in big roles. They'll need a vivid performance in training camp to make an impression on the new coach.

The total cap hit of that group above is under $70 million leaving $34 million plus in cap space and $3.75 million in LTIR pool.

That seems like a lot, but it disappears very quickly.

Contract Space

The Leafs have a lot of vacant contract space, with only 31 SPCs that will count for sure next season. That number goes to 32 if Ben Danford plays in the NHL or AHL as expected. And now there's at least some question about Tinus Luc Koblar coming over, so 33 is a possible number as well. Regardless, they have room to sign at least 17 more contracts not counting any young junior players they sign who are staying in Europe or the CHL.

RFAs

As discussed with respect to arbitration, the Leafs had two meaningful RFAs they can sign in Nick Robertson and Matias Maccelli. They also have 10 players at the AHL level, or in Europe as unsigned RFAs and two newly acquired RFAs with arbitration rights.

Samuel Ersson and Emil Andrae both need new contracts, and we should expect that process will get under way, perhaps involving arbitration. There is a lot of talk about the Leafs not issuing a Qualifying Offer to Ersson, but as of now, that's speculative. Ersson's QO would be $1.6 million and Andrae's is $874,125. Evolving Hockey predicts two years for Andrae at under $1.5 million and $2.7 million for Ersson on a two-year deal. (Note their predictions are based on similar players in the past, not predictions based on a perception of value.)

The older arbitration cases are discussed here:

June 15 is when the NHL kicks into offseason mode
Or thereabouts
PPP LeafsCathy Squires

The AHL players and Europeans are:

  1. Jacob Quillan
  2. Henry Thrun
  3. William Villeneuve
  4. Ryan Tverberg
  5. Braeden Kressler
  6. John Prokop
  7. Topi Niemelä
  8. Roni Hirvonen
  9. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
  10. Vyacheslav Peksa

UFAs

There are a few UFAs in the system who could be signed before July 1.

  1. Calle Järnkrok wants to stay in the NHL, but it seems unlikely that will be with the Leafs.
  2. Troy Stecher seems like a very capable third-pairing defender but Andrae may have ended his hopes of a contract.
  3. Travis Boyd has been injured and missed a lot of AHL time, but he is not an NHL recall option anymore.
  4. Vinni Lettieri, star of the AHL playoffs, is almost certainly going to Europe.
  5. Matt Benning will not generate any interest from the Leafs, but he has played a meaningful role in the playoffs for the Marlies.

Changes

There are going to be a lot of new members of the team this season without even considering the potential trading away of more players. It looks like a trade to move Morgan Rielly is something the team will try to do, but the idea of revisiting the Matthew Knies deal with Montréal is a lot murkier. There is some reporting after the Joe Woll trade that the Leafs are definitely offering Knies, but no details have been reported and nothing may come of it.

Some of the other options to trade away players amount to selling low for little gain. Brandon Carlo or Dakota Joshua are not at their peak value, although, if you account for games missed, Joshua has some points and other results that are better than most would think.

The Leafs need centres. You know, someone like Nic Roy or Scott Laughton. They need a top six winger or two, or even better: a centre that can push John Tavares to the wing and extend his value even deeper into his bargain contract.

They need some puck skills on defence (oh, hi, Emil Andrae) and if they succeed in moving Morgan Rielly, they need to fill his skates with someone better in some capacity or why do the deal. They need someone better even if they don't move him, new guy notwithstanding.

Grand Schemes

With this must white space on the page, it's tempting to doodle in grandiose idea. Trade all the goalies and sign Connor Hellebuyck! Give up all the forward talent for one young defensive star! That seems extremely unlikely.

They have to make some more trades, though. There is no way to better what Treliving did last year if all they do is sign UFAs.

One way or another, a lot of new faces will be on the ice in September.

Offseason