Maple Leafs Prospect Report: Early Victor Johansson Thoughts

When Johansson was drafted in the 4th round, he was already a bit of an enigma. It was the first pick Toronto had made since Ben Danford in the first round, and though it wasn't in a high round I'd say a lot of people had some hopes or expectations that [favourite prospect still available] would be chosen. Instead, Toronto took an extremely unknown guy – Johansson – who was not ranked or talked about by anyone at any point in the draft.

Writing an initial profile about him was tough, because there were no scouting reports or video out there to use. I only found two sources with off hand comments and a couple of clips to go off of.

Getting to Know Victor Johansson

Toronto’s fourth round pick was one of the biggest mystery picks in the 2024 draft, given how few people knew anything about him and how there were no scouting reports from any outlet. I looked into him as much as I could

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Since then, Johansson started his pre-season in Sweden's U20 junior league, and now he's 8 games into the regular season. Now I finally have a good chunk of games to watch and get a more solid opinion on his game and potential.

So, let's talk about him.

STATS & CONTEXT

There's not much to write about the context for Johansson. He has played this year on the league's best team by far. They have yet to lose a game, with one win coming in overtime. They have outscored the opposition 32-12. They have the top defense, the top offense, the top goalie, and three of the top scoring players.

As of writing this, Johansson is one of those top producing players. In his 8 games played he already has 10 points – 1 goal and 9 assists. That leads the U20 junior league in Sweden for all defensemen, is tied for second in the entire league for all positions, and is tied for the team lead.

You could say that Johansson is the best overall defenseman and top offensive producing defenseman on the best offensive and defensive team in the league. He is one of the most used defensemen at even strength and penalty kill, and he's on their top powerplay. I wouldn't say he's the best defensive defenseman, and I don't have a breakdown of TOI to go on but I don't think he's the most used at even strength. But he's up there for both, and is by far their best defender for contributing to offense and driving transitions.

To put his production into perspective, those 10 points already beat Johansson's season total for all of last year – he had 8 points in 34 games. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2021/22, when he was 15 years old, to the last point that Johansson had 10+ points in a season. Suffice to say, he is on pace to blow way past that. In fact, he is on pace (63 points) to blow past all of his previous three seasons combined (33 points).

There is a question about the sustainability of this pace. It's pretty rare for a defenseman to finish at a point per game for a whole season, usually only a couple manage it per season. Considering Johansson had not showed anywhere near this level of offensive production before, I do not assume that he can maintain this same level. If he does, I am going to give some of the credit to the high powered offense of the team he plays on.

That said, there are good reasons to think that there is legitimate skill behind it. I think Johansson has definitely taken a big leap in his offensive skills, and has a good chance to finish the season in the upper echelon of offensive defensemen in the league this year – assuming he doesn't get called up to the SHL for a chunk of the year. In the pre-season, when I would say his game was definitely more rough around the edges, he had three goals and an assist in six games. Combine all of that together, he's still at 4 goals and 10 assists in 15 games.

So what's driving this offensive breakout? He likely is getting more ice time this year compared to last, including more time on the powerplay. Being one of the older defensemen on the team, instead of younger, helps with that.

But there's definitely more than just an increased opportunity, so let's dig into the tape.

SCOUTING REPORT

There are a few things I've noticed about Johansson's offensive game. I still won't call him an elite offensive defenseman, but there's something there.

First is his skating and puck handling. Johansson is a one-man transition machine for his team, using a combination of fakes, look offs and other means of misdirection to lead defenders one way before cutting or crossing over to go the other way. He uses the same tricks when getting the puck out of his own end, or when breaking down a defense in the offensive zone. I don't want to overstate this, because he has his issues. I've found he's great at starting an offensive play where he can get by the initial defender or two, but then doesn't have the skill to create dangerous scoring opportunities from it at a high success rate. I would say he isn't a dangler, per se, in that he can't stick handle through pressure – he does that almost entirely with his feet. But at the very least, it looks like he is developing into a solid puck moving defenseman.

The other good offensive element to Johansson's game is his passing. One thing I came to appreciate watching his games from this weekend is how good he is at drawing in pressure, buying time for himself, and then making a nifty pass through legs or under sticks to a teammate who was skating into the now vacated area. He's also shown a strong ability to fire a pass across the ice, and make stretch passes from his own end. Again, I don't want to overstate his passing ability. These passes he's making are not in a pro league, but I see some promise here as well.

The final area that seems interesting, but not to the same extent, is his shot. He has a weird one-timer. It's weird in that his wind up and follow through looks so casual, like he isn't putting nearly as much power into his shots as he could. But it's also quick with a short and compact windup, and it's also pretty accurate even when he's moving while making the shot. Three of the four goals he's scored between the pre- and regular season games he's played have come off one timers from the point. Even though none of the shots looked that hard, and I'm sure non-junior goalies would be much more likely to stop them, when he's making his shot the goalie is moving across the crease and he is picking the opposite side of the net they're sliding away from. Not sure if that's intentional by him, but it's pretty smart and effective for him so far.

Here are some of his top offensive highlights showcasing his skating, puck handling, passing and transitions.

Defensively, Johansson has also shown some promise but it looks more of a mixed bag to me. He has an intriguing mix of defending his own blueline, shutting down opponents along the boards, and general physical play.

I'll start with defending the blueline, which I think has looked the best since the regular season has started. Johansson's skating helps a lot here, but he's shown a good sense of timing, positioning, angling the puck carrier to the outside, and then stepping up to either poke the puck away, check the opponent into the boards to stop him dead, or force him to dump it in past him. While he was too passive and got walked at times in the pre-season, I have yet to see that happen since the regular season began.

Next is his ability to snuff out puck carriers along the boards in his own end. Again, his skating helps in this area, as it allows him to keep up with and then speed up so he can grab/pin the puck carrier on the boards without him slipping away. He's done a good job so far of toeing the line and not taking a lot of holding or interference penalties, which is a good mark for his decision making. His problems in this area are mostly to do with handling stronger opponents. There aren't that many of them for junior, but it will be more difficult for him if he gets called up to the pro league in Sweden.

Lastly is the physical element of Johansson's game, which has been a pleasant surprise and I think is an underrated part of his game. This is another area where his lack of strength can hamper the effectiveness of it. But one thing I cannot fault him for is not trying. He is an underrated son-of-a-bitch at times, which I can't help but feel is due to youngest child syndrome. He can be liberal with crosschecks at times, but again so far he's toeing the line so he's not getting penalties called on him. I have seen him chase hits a few times, but generally speaking he's only finishing checks on guys who have the puck. He doesn't just settle for merely pinning guys against the boards, he'll drive them into it with some force.

Here are some of Johansson's better defensive highlights that illustrate some of what I've been talking about:

CONCERNS & DEVELOPMENT GOALS

There are still some concerns I have while watching Johansson, some that I've already mentioned.

Offensively, I want Johansson to add more power to his shot – slap and wrist shot. Some of this will come from adding muscle, but mechanically I think he needs to learn how to keep the quick and compact technique while also putting more power behind it. I also love that he will jump into plays with his skating, and sometimes lead a rush. What he needs to get better at is how to beat the final layers of a defense. He's shown good creativity and skill to get by the first wave, but seems to falter when facing the last one. It could be as simple as cutting back instead of trying to beat them and turning it over, and passing to trailing teammates for better opportunities.

Defensively, you'll notice that I didn't say anything about Johansson's play in front of his own net. I find he lacks the same consistency and physical intensity to box out or shove away opponents from around the crease to make his goalie's job easier. I also find that, in his own end, he is sometimes guilty of mimicking the Alex Ovechkin XBox Controller Disconnected meme. It was a much bigger problem in the pre-season at times that made me want to tear my hair out. So far in the regular season, he's not doing it as often and the moments are less dramatic. But having a consistent level of effort and focus in his own end is a must.

Otherwise, while I do like the good parts of his game that I outlined above more than I thought I would, I also still want to see him improve in all those areas. His skating is smooth and can be quick and agile, but he could stand to add more explosiveness in his first few strides. His passing is good, but I'd like him to use it more than purely carrying the puck, even if he's also good at that.

Honestly, there's so many parts of his game that could be easily improved and unlocked by adding more muscle to his still too-lanky frame. Johansson is still a project that has a ways to go, but I have a much better idea of the foundation Toronto has to work with. I want to see him become a two-way leader for his team and earn a pro call up.