First Period
The two loudest cheers in the first few minutes are for William Nylander stepping on the ice, and John Tavares knocking over Jake DeBrusk.
Nylander turned into a spinning top pic.twitter.com/oq6eUV516p
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Boston takes a too many men penalty (again) and the Leafs get to try the power play with the right personnel for the first time this playoffs.
It starts a little messy with a long period of Bruins puck control. The best chance is actually a good Mitch Marner setup pass that Tyler Bertuzzi whiffs on. Nick Robertson with the only shot on goal.
Bertuzzi fans on what would've been the Leafs best scoring chance so far pic.twitter.com/mpIqcfdrft
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Marner takes a penalty off a faceoff, and that was likely not really a good time to trip a guy. Accidental, mostly.
Marner is called for tripping pic.twitter.com/tSA7Xgndmk
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Leafs playing short shifts on the PK with a lot of good movement and heads in the game. Ilya Samsonov with a perfect save.
great read from Knies pic.twitter.com/0cq9oqAbXh
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
poke-check from Samsonov pic.twitter.com/o6iVSPqbTx
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
The Tre Kronor line has the play going where it should, but a think flares up between Patrick Maroon and Joel Edmundson.
TJ Brodie, alone in on the four-on-four, and some Bruin takes a penalty on the guy with one goal on the season. That guy is Charlie McAvoy.
Four-on-three with a 4F PP from the Leafs followed up by a regular power play.
Bruins win the faceoffs, and clear the puck when they need to.
Ryan Reaves with a dreadful giveaway to James van Riemsdyk. Bruins' baby defender way too much for Reaves.
James van Riemsdyk
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
1-0 Boston pic.twitter.com/bK15F9iaCe
1-0 Boston
Samsonov doesn't follow the play effectively, and comes way out to make it easier to get it past him. I don't know if I've ever seen a goalie exhibit such massive variance within each individual game.
Following up the special teams with a fourth line shift works a lot of the time. They've got a good record of keeping the play in the offensive zone. It didn't this time.
Nylander with a good shot that doesn't quite thread the needle below Jeremy Swayman's blocker.
Thoughts
This period looked busy for both teams, but the number of shots on goal don't bear that out.
Corsi was 12-11 at five-on-five, and the Shots on Goal were seven each.
Expected Goals in all-situations is a dull .4 to .6.
Self-sabotage is 1-0 for the Leafs.
Second Period
I'm not enjoying this period so I thought I'd look up Swayman's stats going into this game. By Moneypuck, he has 7.8 goals saved above expected. That's in two games.
Samsonov is at -0.2, so effectively an average goalie. And that should be good enough when you aren't facing Swayman outperforming even Swayman levels of excellence.
No one wants to hear this. But you don't need to score four to beat Swayman, you need to have five more Expected Goals for than they manage to score on you. And that means Toronto really needs to shut them out most of the time. Not even the Avalanche are setup to beat Swayman when he plays this well. Of course, he might not get results that sparkly against a different team with more skill in finishing, but he'd still be the toughest goalie anyone has faced in the playoffs.
And now I believe Max Domi has done a thing...
Domi to the box for cross-checking pic.twitter.com/dMHQHBTnjx
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Bruins to the power play. Domi gets this call because he's petulantly retaliating because Pastrnak took the puck away in the Leafs zone.
And it's in, while Samsonov is way out in the blue paint. I quit on him. He's just not someone that any discussion of makes anyone the wiser.
Brad Marchand
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
2-0 pic.twitter.com/z9fsW8LOE1
2-0 Bruins
Okay, I took a time out because I'm irritated. But these are my thoughts: With Swayman playing the way he is, the Bruins can coast, badly, on this lead and win the game.
At least the players are more irritated than I am.
good
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
now channel that frustration and score some goals already pic.twitter.com/fYw3CpogzQ
Marchand walks Brodie like he's a rookie and it's 3-0 Bruins.
David Pastrnak
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
3-0 pic.twitter.com/8dPhgpwlfD
Crowd boos the Leafs off the ice, and quite right too.
Thoughts
So about Swayman and his ability to nullify your first four xG. The Leafs have 0.83 xG in all situations (Moneypuck). The Bruins have poured tar on the ice, and all the skill in the world isn't going to "just score" if you can't get anywhere near the net.
Third Period
Joe Woll in net, and no Auston Matthews on the bench. This is funny to me, seriously.
Ilya Lyubushkin almost scores. It looked in, but must have hit the crossbar. That was a good shot, though, Boosh. Good try.
Lyubushkin hits the crossbar pic.twitter.com/6Sbl9MrEkP
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Marner with a very Marner goal. He undresses Swayman, and that's been a long time coming.
The team finally has something to work with pic.twitter.com/JH0FTl2ZP1
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
3-1 Bruins
Morgan Rielly with a good play to stop a DeBrusk rush.
good pressure from Rielly pic.twitter.com/GZZf2hfPU2
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
The crowd is back in the game. Matthews is not.
Maple Leafs F Auston Matthews will not return to tonight’s game.
— Leafs PR (@LeafsPR) April 28, 2024
Joe Woll finally has to make a save almost halfway through the period.
There is now a line with both Mitch Marner and Max Domi on it, and I don't understand.
There is, however, fantastic levels of pressure but then Nylander takes a penalty knocking down DeBrusk, who had neither a stick nor the puck.
Nylander to the box for holding pic.twitter.com/oxPFWgujcQ
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
Woll with a good save on Pastrnak. This is huge pressure for Woll, he cannot let one it.
Benoit is knocked down in the corner, but it is the slash that came before it that is the penalty. Even DeBrusk thought he was guilty.
never mind, that wasn't the penalty https://t.co/jzU2nbNw3v
— Omar (@TicTacTOmar) April 28, 2024
It's not a bad power play, but the Bruins have a good PK, and effectively disrupt all the attempts to score.
The Bruins miss the empty net, which is about the only exciting moment of the last few minutes with Woll pulled.
Thoughts
Let's hope Auston Matthews was just too dehydrated to play, and not also hurt.
I do not believe any player on this team isn't trying, and trying to hype your TV show by claiming that is just a very sad way to go about things.
Next game is Tuesday at 7 pm.
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