Tuesday's FTB: 65 Days

I started out writing about the remaining UFAs, a de regueur sort of article that gets churned out every year. I began with the defence, and I actually wrote up the entire story of Nick Blankenburg and why his analytic darling status is an illusion, and then I said, wait. What the hell am I doing with my life here. Who cares about some defenceman who is 5'9" and can't defend? The Leafs aren't that team anymore. They aren't looking for clever schemes and bargain additions, and as much as I like the New Jersey move on Barrett Hayton, that's not who they are now either.

I flipped the list to UFAs who expire in 2028. That's where the Leafs need to be shopping. Everyone has trade protection, everyone is in control of their own destiny, and the Leafs need to make themselves into the team guys like this want to engineer a trade to.

No more thinking small!

Zach Werenski tops that list. And if he changes his mind as another season in Columbus rolls on, well, he tops my list too.

Josh Morrissey's name blares out next as a very, very good defender who is in Winnipeg wondering if he should be leaving on a jet plane. His cap hit of $6.25 is so tiny, it's almost shocking. And he's only 31. Winnipeg wants to appear to be trying to stay competitive, but if the Hellebuyck trade happens, and this season starts to go south...

Roman Josi has already drawn some speculation as a plyer winding down a career of excellence without the silverware to reward it. Does he want to try his hand elsewhere?

Dougie Hamilton is also a guy who wanted out last season and now it's all gone quiet around him. Maybe Sunny Mehta thinks he's a fine player, and the quick exit of Simon Nemec implies Hamilton is back in favour. But if not, his offence creation knows no equal save Werenski.

To find interesting forwards outside the bargain bin, you have to find a less obvious contract expiry date. Alex Debrincat next summer, Kevin Fiala and Jonathan Marchessault in 2029. Or else dig into RFAs where Kirill Marchenko has one more year.

I doubt the Leafs can run out and do a deal right now, and they might end up waiting to see, like Brad Treliving did last year, which teams start realizing they can't compete and decide to make some deals.

Someone suggested that offer sheets are important for a team to use to show the fans they're trying to improve, that they'll do big things. Maybe. Sounds a bit like a grandiose scheme that won't work. I prefer gambles that actually happen, like the Raddysh and Bobrovsky signings. They actually can help you win, and a the warm glow of "at least they tried" really can't.

Optics are for people afraid of what everyone else thinks of them. Maybe John Chayka's "not a serious team" introduction to the Toronto press corps was useful. How can he possibly ever care what they say?

As we ease into summer, I'll do my take on Chayka's first 65 days running the team.

The most significant thing he's done is be really busy. He's illustrated to everyone, notably Auston Matthews but also the rest of us, that the team was poorly built, the prospect pool was shallow, the commitment to all levels of team excellence had atrophied and it was time to get... wait for it... serious.

A lot of these things, some of the same sorts of things that Kyle Dubas did well, are not earth-shaking, they are just how you should run a business. He talks up his people, he lets them have attention so they can bee seen to be good at their jobs in front of their peers. He makes decisions about players that are at least rational and understandable and not emotional. He actually explains his thinking pretty clearly to reporter questions, albeit in jargon-laden language.

That's another good thing. He is himself. He's not putting on some pretence of a down home hockey man like both Mike Babcock and Brad Treliving are prone to.

The 53-player dev camp was full of hockey players, not just fast-skating goal-scorers and no one got a concussion, and if it reminded me of the early days with Dubas filling the Marlies roster past the breaking point every September, well, he found some good players doing that. For the ECHL generally.

This Marlies team is full of interesting player additions that look like a group that can play well. That's Ryan Hardy, one of those people Chayka has praised, doing that work. No more silliness where the guy running the Marlies is invisible and barely part of the organization. If you look at how many 2007 birthdates are in the pipeline now, you'll see who all will be AHL-eligible come next summer. They are building the team now to be ready for them.

Below the impact level, the free agent signings are the types of players who have reputations as serious people, professional, committed, and who understand how seriously you have to take this game. A lot of them are fairly quiet about it. They don't act tough, they are tough-minded.

The players who weren't bad, per se, but were just hard to fit on the team are gone. Not for nothing in every case, but not hung onto grimly waiting for the offer to get better than a fourth-round pick.

What's not so great? Well. Honestly, I think either Chayka really likes the whole process of the draft or he wanted to put on a bit of a razzmatazz to really show off how busy he is, how much he's doing, look at all the new faces! I said last summer at the T25 that the prospect pool seemed so bad, but all that was missing was the big glut of low-quality prospects unlikely to ever play in the NHL. Now we have them. But it was showbiz without much substance.

I like Jim Hiller, and he seems like a good fit with the organization, but I'm trying to picture him vs The Malaise, should that condition return to the team. I don't think Babcock was a good hire for the Oilers, but I think Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman are worth listening to when they talk about needing to be pushed sometimes. Can Hiller be that guy, or is that Mats Sundin's real job, to be the hard man behind the locker room door who tells them they're slacking.

Which brings me to what is likely my most unpopular opinion. If there ever really was some kind of concept to put Sundin in over Chayka, I'm glad that failed, but I don't like this pretence that there is a tandem managing the team. Most tandems in the net are not a real partnership of equals, and come playoff time, there's one guy who gets the call. Ask Dennis Hildeby about that. Or Joe Woll. Or I guess now Anthony Stolarz. I don't like bullshit, and this co-management stuff smells to me. I think the titles tell the real story, and the pretence otherwise was a little too much of the razzmatazz.

And that's the thing I do feel about Chayka that bears watching. It's not exactly that he cares what you think of him so much as he wants to control what you feel about the team. This is not bad, since the eagerness of all the hockey world to see this team fail cannot be overstated, but it's dangerous when a performer starts buying his own performance. I think Dubas got there in the end, filling the management ranks with every consultant and life coach he could find because he wouldn't fire Sheldon Keefe. Tripling down on the process, ignoring the outcome.

Everything is a risk. To shoot the puck is to risk giving it away, that's the lesson of the game. Chayka is no different.