2026 NHL Draft: What Trading Down from First Overall Would Look Like

We've already seen and heard a lot of rumours of what Toronto will do with the first round pick. Mostly focused around who they will select with the first overall pick, but there is also a segment who say trading down makes more sense in this year's draft because the top 5(ish) picks are in the same tier and very close in value – even if you think McKenna is the clear first overall pick at the top of that tier.

I've done this in other years, but to give you all an idea of what kind of trade downs Toronto could do to get more picks, I'll use some of the studies done that looked into establishing a rough mathematical value for each individual draft pick and then look at what teams below Toronto have multiple picks that add up to being roughly fair. Obviously, you can have pick trades that are more unequal in value, it really depends on the teams involved and if one of them thinks the player they want to trade up for is worth more than the pick position indicates.

"We had this guy as a first rounder and he's still available in the second/third round???"

That kind of thing.

One funny note I want to add before getting into the meat and potatoes of the article is that I've heard rumours (with varying amounts of salt applied) of pretty much every NHL team's scouting groups groaning that they hate this year's draft class and want to trade down or trade their picks entirely. That does complicate the math for these potential trade picks beyond the pick values alone.

Establishing Pick Value

First, let's look at the math. There are a bunch of studies that look into this, but PuckPedia helpfully put together a draft pick value calculator tool based on research done by some guy who may or may not have been a blogger then NHL GM who just won a Stanley Cup...

So the way this tool works, it sets the top pick (first overall) with a value of 100 and then trails off sharply down to the middle of the first round, then starts to smooth and slow as picks next to each other become more similar in value.

Vancouver Canucks

Picks Vancouver has:

• 3rd overall = 62.07 value
• 24th overall = 15.21 value
• 33rd overall = 9.92 value
• 41st overall = 7.04 value

The value of all four of these picks comes to around 95, I believe. Which is still a bit short of the value that the first overall pick represents. I'll admit, I had used other pick value studies before that don't have as extreme a drop off from the top pick to even the rest of the top 10, so this surprised me.

Then again, I think you can now see the main reason why pick trades with the first overall involved (or even the top 10 involved) are so rare. The drop off between each pick is a lot, and it takes a lot to trade up and make up that difference.

So why would Vancouver trade two first round picks and two second round picks just to move up two spots? The realistic answer is... they very likely wouldn't. The logic may be that Vancouver is starting a rebuild and they may desperately want to start out with the biggest potential star to kick it off. What do all rebuilds need? Stars.

Vancouver has been heavily rumoured to really want Caleb Malhotra at 3rd overall, which was true even before they hired his dad to be the head coach. But while Caleb may be the top center in the draft, he doesn't have the star power of McKenna or even Stenberg.

So the reason why they would do this deal isn't because of the math of the pick value... I don't think any NHL team aside from maybe Carolina would seriously look at that. What matters is the potential players involved. Vancouver would have to think that getting McKenna would be worth more than the combination of Malhotra/Reid and then whatever players they'd be thinking of getting with those other picks.

Chicago Blackhawks

Picks Chicago has:

• 4th overall = 55.24 value
• 34th overall = 9.49 value
• 37th overall = 8.32 value
• 45th overall = 6.01 value

The total for this combination comes to just under 80, which is still 20% away from equaling this theoretical value of the first overall pick.

So, again, it doesn't seem realistic does it? But let's think out why it could happen.

Like Vancouver, Chicago is in a rebuild. Unlike Vancouver, they're (hoping to be) closer to the end of their rebuild. They're reportedly less interested in having lots of draft picks again, as they have the past few years, and more interested in using their assortment of picks and prospects to acquire young talent already in the NHL. That's why they've been rumoured to be heavily pursuing someone like Matthew Knies. They want someone who can help them in the NHL right now and for the long term, someone who has certainty for being an impact player in the NHL. In theory, McKenna could be an NHL impact guy right away too, with even greater potential in the future as he gets better. He could be the skilled playmaker to set up Connor Bedard or Anton Frondell.

Of course, the added difficulty is that Toronto also wants players who are ready to play in the NHL right now. So they'd do this deal if they thought that the guy they could get at 4 would be just as likely to be an equally (or more) impactful player in the NHL than McKenna. Say... maybe they have some knowledge that Stenberg could fall to fourth like so many mock drafts have predicted. If you could get a guy you think is close to or better than McKenna's projected value, and then get three other picks in the early/middle second round? That's a good value find for them.

But then, that scenario would also hold true for Chicago. So if a trade for these picks were to happen, it would have to be a scenario where the Leafs value whoever they think would be available at fourth overall but Chicago doesn't, and Chicago would have to value McKenna more than Toronto does.

Calgary Flames

Picks Calgary has... (deep breath)

• 6th overall = 45.98 value
• 28th overall = 12.5 value
• 35th overall = 9.07 value
• 36th overall = 8.69 value
• 51st overall = 4.83 value
• 55th overall = 4.22 value

Calgary having two first rounders and four second rounders is why they can get closer to the value of the first overall pick than Chicago. Those six picks still only add up to 85 and change.

Why would Calgary do this deal? Basically the same reasons I struggled to theorize why Vancouver might want to. They're also rebuilding, they also might really want a star, and they probably have more reason to perceive a sizeable gap in value between who they'd take first overall and who they think will be available at sixth overall.

Seattle Kraken

Picks Seattle has:

• 7th overall = 42.44 value
• 26th overall = 13.77 value
• 38th overall = 7.97 value

I wound up removing the New York Rangers because their combination of picks were similar to Seattle, with the benefit of having a first rounder two picks higher but having no second round pick until 63. The difference in value is actually more in favour of the Rangers – 67.14 in value vs 64.18, but I am keeping Seattle instead because I think they are potentially the most desperate to have the first overall pick compared to the first round pick they have. They have been mediocre for years. They have had a lot of high picks, but none have turned into the stars they need. They're all just a bunch of good players.

The thing is, their picks alone are not enough to come close to the value of the first overall pick. I personally believe that you can likely get a very, very good player in the same tier as the first overall at 7th (Malte Gustafsson my boy!) but who will take longer to get to the NHL and isn't as sexy a pick as the next Kucherov or Kane.

That's where tomorrow's article comes in... because there's no rule that says teams are only allowed to trade picks. They can throw in other existing assets to make up the difference. So I am keeping Seattle here because I am just guessing they may be the most likely team to really want to trade up to first overall and therefore give Toronto enough of an overpay in picks and other assets to make it happen. That does not mean I think any trade with them is likely to happen at all, just that I can envision a scenario where Seattle does this more than I can with these other teams.

St Louis Blues

Picks St Louis has:

• 11th overall = 31.99 value
• 15th overall = 24.93 value
• 29th overall = 11.92 value

You'd think that St Louis would be an interesting team for a pick trade because they have three first rounders, including two in the top half. But because those two top 15 picks are outside of the top 10, and the drop off in value from 1st to 11th is so steep, it still only comes to a 68.84. That's still better in value than either the Rangers or Kraken, mind you, but they also have zero second round picks to make up more of the difference.

However, they are also like Seattle in that they could use other prospects or players to equalize things. I think they're far less likely to do it, but I also love the idea of getting 11 and 15 and 29 because that's potentially great value players (like Gustafsson!) with those two top 15 picks so I'd be rooting for it to happen as much as I am any of these other potential teams.

However, after looking at all of these hypothetical pick trades, suffice to say there is pretty much nothing that seems very likely to happen. I'm sure some teams would love to trade up, but I don't think they'd be prepared to trade away so many high picks in the top two rounds to make it happen.

What's more interesting as a possibility is what I already teased when talking about Seattle... how Toronto could combine trading down for other picks but also other prospects and players or even acquire more picks in this year's draft through trading their players for picks.

We've already seen one such trade as of writing this – in the Woll and Benoit trade to Philly, Toronto got another third round pick back. Which isn't as exciting to most people, but it is for me!

Thanks for reading!

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