Analysis

Total 552 Posts
Team, play and statistical analysis of the Maple Leafs, their opponents and the NHL as a whole.

And Then Josh Leivo Woke Up (Fun With Graphs!)

Leafs prospect, and OHL Player of the Week, breaks out from his sleepy September with Sudbury to score 6 goals in 3 games. How does his production stack up vs. other prospects?

Tyler Biggs vs. Josh Leivo - Power Forwards of the Future?

Nineteen year old Leafs prospects drafted in 2011 should be able to display significant strides in the OHL during the 2012-13 season

NHL Lockout History - Futures in the AHL

What should we look for from the upcoming AHL season based on the last time a lockout happened?

Intro To Advanced Statistics - PDO

Editor's Note: Over the summer we're going to try to put together some primers on some of the statistical measures that fall under the "advanced statistics" umbrella in order to help lay the groundwork for a lot of the analytical discussion that takes places

Intro To Advanced Hockey Statistics - Fenwick

Editor's Note: Over the summer we're going to try to put together some primers on some of the statistical measures that fall under the "advanced statistics" umbrella in order to help lay the groundwork for a lot of the analytical discussion that takes places

Intro To Advanced Hockey Statistics - Corsi

Editor's Note: Over the summer we're going to try to put together some primers on some of the statistical measures that fall under the "advanced statistics" umbrella in order to help lay the groundwork for a lot of the analytical discussion that takes places

Refutation of Stupid Semin Arguments

I know this may seem a tad overblown given that Chemmy posted about Alexander Semin yesterday, but I've been ranting about this topic for a while, and I thought I'd toss my 2 cents into the ring. Ok - so Alexander Semin is apparently an Enigmatic

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades Numero Uno

It's finally come to this. The best and the worst trades that Brian Burke has ever engineered as the Toronto Maple Leafs GM. Recap. Worst Trades #4 - Kris Versteeg to PHI for a 2011 1st and 2nd and a 3rd and the wreckage of the Titantic and

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades #2

A quick recap for those of you who are archivally challenged. Brian Burke's worst trades as Leafs GM: #4 - Kris Versteeg to PHI for a 2011 1st and 2nd #3 - Jiri Tlusty to CAR for the rights to Philippe Paradis This bring us to #2. July

Sifting The AHL

So I know the draft is coming up in a couple of days, and I know the Leafs need more help in their prospect pool. I've actually been thinking about the common perception about the Leafs lack of offensive producers in the pipeline, and considered some potential prospects

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades #3

With news in Friedman's 30 Thoughts that Burke couldn't come to an agreement on a trade that would see Rick Nash don the blue and white for all the tea in China, we are spared from making an addendum to our list of worst Brian Burke

The Best and Worst of Brian Burke: Trades

The 2012 NHL Draft on Friday brings with it the first real opportunity for teams to make trades in the offseason. Sure they were allowed to do so per the rules beforehand, but it's not until these GMs all get together on an arena floor that you see

Why Signing a Veteran Goalie May Not Help

Entering this off-season, it was obvious the main weakness of the Leafs has yet again been goaltending. Despite praise worthy statistics in the back half of the 2010-11 season from James Reimer, leading to a nice RFA contract for the young starter in waiting, the Leafs net was anything but

Shut Down Index (SDI) Results 2011-2012

So earlier this season, around the midway point, I started trying to devise a measurement tool to assess defensive skill for defenders. I decided after reading the postings on the Heavy Lifter Index written over at PuckProspectus.com that I could craft something comparable for blue liners, with a few

Curse? What Curse? There is no Curse.

Author's Note: This is a re-post from last year because the MSM talking heads just can't seem to get things right. Last weekend, once the Canucks had secured their first overall finish, we got more tales of the Presidents' Trophy Curse. "Only 30% of

Leadership Might Be A Myth

Recently we've been treated to copious amounts of "analysis" attempting to find a rational reason for the Leafs dive to the basement of the NHL. The management is throwing its arms up with a "never seen anything like it" response. The team discusses how

Revisiting a theme: Expected Win Percentages

On Feb 28th, I posted a look at the Leafs upcoming schedule and how we could expect them to do. The basic premise was to make use of the log5 method first devised by Bill James, and the home and away goal differentials via the pythagenpuck win probabilities model to

If You Plan On Paying Him You Might As Well Play Him

Looks like the team's new head coach, Randy Carlyle realizes something many of us around Leaf land have been saying for a while: Mikhail Grabovski is the Leafs top Centre. It appears important that Carlyle get off on the right foot with this team in a relatively short

Expected Win Percentages Rest Of The Way

So in a quick discussion around Home and Road goal differentials around the NHL last night on Twitter with Julian (PPP) and Neil Greenberg, the Washington Capitals blogger from the Washington Post, he linked to a story he had posted recently on the Caps likely probability of winning their games

Return of the Dead Puck Era My Ass

Friend of the blog Justin Bourne put up a post on The Score's Backhand Shelf that I disagree with. Let me tell you why. The post titled "The Sedins and the Numbers Agree: Dead Puck Era Hockey is Creeping Back into the NHL", references an article

Do The Leafs Need A Change?

Recently lots of talk has been in the offing around what and where the Leafs need to change if they hope to make the playoffs. The main stream media has been discussing the trade possibilities posed by this young Leafs squad, and much of this is due to Brian Burke&

Shut Down Defensemen - Part 2

So yesterday I ran down the numbers on a new statistic that's targeted at determining who the best defensive defensemen are in the NHL. I referred to it as the SDI or Shut Down Index, and to briefly summarize it compares a blue liner's Corsi REL

Shut Down Defensemen - Part 1

How often have we heard the idea that defensive blue liners are a "dime a dozen" in the NHL? Probably far more than we should frankly. As a skill set, the defensive defender's repertoire is difficult to master at a high level, and in some ways

The Leafs Best Shot Blockers

A little while ago I was in discussion with Cam Charron about Shot Blocking metrics and the problems of normalization, and he directed me to work by Daniel Wagner over at the Score and a recent posting by Derek Zona over at Copper and Blue, which in turn prompted me

How Long Will The Maple Leafs' Window Be Open?

So a couple of days ago, after watching yet another Leafs loss in 86" of gory glory, I caught myself briefly agreeing with people that think making a trade of one of our young D men makes sense going forward. Luke Schenn, Keith Aulie, and Jake Gardiner had all
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